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Thread: Poor Forecasting

  1. #1
    Dog Whisperer cookshow's Avatar
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    Default Poor Forecasting

    Those that know me know I am a kinda Weather Geek. Many years my livelihood was tied to Catastrophic Weather Events so I watch it closer than most.

    The Forecast for Otto was I think the worst I have ever seen from NOAA. Lot of little discrepancies but there were big ones too.

    If you were doing the math (as I was) in one 12 hour period NOAA reported Otto moved 180 miles, amazing as they were reporting 8mph movement for the same 12 hour period. Not a Big Deal, Unless you are in the Projected Path, you just lost 12 hours of Prep Time and it makes you wonder seriously about the rest of the Forecast.

    They kept calling for a Northerly move, that never happened and that is understandable, not exact science. We had another weather system going on that I am sure greatly complicated the Forecasting.

    Location was the real Kicker for me, they were Flying it, surely to Allah The Planes knew were when they were over it.

    Luckily it did not hit a heavily populated area.

    Still have heard little out of the San Juan Del Norte (Greytown) area but I expect it is Bad down there.
    ‎"You know what you say when people tell you you can't do something? Fool, shut your mouth up!"
    Ernie K Doe

  2. #2

    Default Re: Poor Forecasting

    Quote Originally Posted by cookshow View Post
    Those that know me know I am a kinda Weather Geek. Many years my livelihood was tied to Catastrophic Weather Events so I watch it closer than most.

    The Forecast for Otto was I think the worst I have ever seen from NOAA. Lot of little discrepancies but there were big ones too.

    If you were doing the math (as I was) in one 12 hour period NOAA reported Otto moved 180 miles, amazing as they were reporting 8mph movement for the same 12 hour period. Not a Big Deal, Unless you are in the Projected Path, you just lost 12 hours of Prep Time and it makes you wonder seriously about the rest of the Forecast.

    They kept calling for a Northerly move, that never happened and that is understandable, not exact science. We had another weather system going on that I am sure greatly complicated the Forecasting.

    Location was the real Kicker for me, they were Flying it, surely to Allah The Planes knew were when they were over it.

    Luckily it did not hit a heavily populated area.

    Still have heard little out of the San Juan Del Norte (Greytown) area but I expect it is Bad down there.



    I saw some pics from Casta Rica of the damage, but haven't found anything yet from Nicaragua.
    Relatively uninhabited area, but what the people would lose would be all they have built up over the years.

    Nica pictures surely out there,, just focusing on other things.

    We got what I think was the tail end of it finally,, two days of pretty steady rain. Barometer dropped suddenly.
    But who knows if it was from Otto for sure.

    It's still somewhat overcast but looking like it wants to clear up.
    We had some sun this morning. ..
    Barometer is rising.

    I could really use some sunshine.

  3. #3
    Viejo del Foro el duende grande's Avatar
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    Default Re: Poor Forecasting

    Been cloudy in Esteli. We finally got 2 minutes of light rain from Otto. Gotta go water the garden.

    "Support mental health or I'll break your head"


  4. #4
    Dog Whisperer cookshow's Avatar
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    Default Re: Poor Forecasting

    Rained off and on all day here. We still have another Month or so of this. January usually dries up some.
    ‎"You know what you say when people tell you you can't do something? Fool, shut your mouth up!"
    Ernie K Doe

  5. #5
    Para aquí para acá Jonh's Avatar
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    Default Re: Poor Forecasting

    They overestimated Matthew's impact too. Not by a little, by a lot.

  6. #6

    Default Re: Poor Forecasting

    It has been cloudy with day time showers and night time rainstorms here on Ometepe since Otto passed to the south. I didn't get to feel the direct impact of a hurricane, but it seems to have sent us back into the rainy season for a bit.

    No storm surge. No uprooted trees. No roofs torn off and sent flying. But, my clothes will take longer to dry...

    ...damn you Otto.
    Soy el chele mono.

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