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Thread: Fixing Nicaragua

  1. #1

    Default Fixing Nicaragua

    TENUOUS TIMELINE 180 days without Maduro: What it would take to fix Venezuela

    https://qz.com/1263552/180-days-with...fix-venezuela/


    Nicaragua doesn't have ANYTHING like the problems of Venezuela,, but neither does it have the oil that provides the incentive

    Nicaragua would enjoy an enormous economic bump if the Otegas left, possibly paving the way for a vibrant economy and solid democracy.
    The dollars needed would be small.

    Even better, the Ortegas (and the FSLN) have built a solid foundation. Many of the social ills that plague Venezuela (and to some extent, El Salvador, Honduras,, and Guatemala) are missing in Nicaragua.

    The trick here is, to put those changes in place before Nicaragua devolves into another civil disaster.

  2. #2
    Viejo del Foro Daddy-YO's Avatar
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    Default Re: Fixing Nicaragua

    My wife is telling me that many are saying things in Nicaragua will get worse. If the negotiations ('dialogues' between Ortega's gov't and those representing - what amounts to - the rest of the country) fall through, expect a nationwide strike, including bank closures. Certain TV channels are warning those-not-Sandinistas to stock up on food and medicine.

    The Alliance of University students (AUN) are saying they won't negotiate at a bloodstained table. They demand an international commission investigate the massacre begun April 19. Ortega's 'diputados' (congressmen) have form a "Truth, Justice and (the Nicaraguan Way) Peace" commission, which the students don't trust.
    https://www.havanatimes.org/?p=132940

    Meanwhile FSLN turbas are reveling in the lawlessness.
    I never met a Semite I didn't like.

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    Para aquí para acá Jonh's Avatar
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    Default Re: Fixing Nicaragua

    So a commission finds the O/M regime guilty, what does that change? Nothing. What do the students do after that?

    Or if it finds them not guilty - then what do the students do?

    Either way, they'll have to make a move some time. Have they thought this through? Do they understand who they're dealing with?

    Reminds me of a Dr. Who episode (Tom Baker era) where The Doctor growled self-righteously, "I will not negotiate in an atmosphere of threat!' In Nicaragua's case, the threat has already been carried out. Water under the bridge.

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    House SOB Little Corn Tom's Avatar
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    Default Re: Fixing Nicaragua

    What adult negotiates with students (i.e. children)? Why would anyone negotiate with a powerless populace?
    The only way to peacefully defeat this regime is if one (1) united party confronts Ortega. And so far the Nicas do not seem to get it.
    The fractured leaders of the separate parties only care about gaining power for themselves and care nothing for the populace as a whole.
    Face it...it is the culture and the culture is doomed to selling fritangas on the corner and getting more zinc every election.
    So sad that such a rich country with beautiful, peaceful people have to endure such a dictator, but maybe it is for the best, all things considered.
    Life's different here ... It's a whole 'nother pace.

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    Dog Whisperer cookshow's Avatar
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    Default Re: Fixing Nicaragua

    1/2 the Population is under 18.
    ‎"You know what you say when people tell you you can't do something? Fool, shut your mouth up!"
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    Dog Whisperer cookshow's Avatar
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    Default Re: Fixing Nicaragua

    They are far from Powerless, they understand Social Media and are using it in ways they Old Guard cannot comprehend. Were it not for Social Media you would be seeing even less News about the events here.

    Interesting to watch, the times they are a changing.
    ‎"You know what you say when people tell you you can't do something? Fool, shut your mouth up!"
    Ernie K Doe

  7. #7

    Default Re: Fixing Nicaragua

    The honeymoon is over, but that doesn't mean the marriage is through. It could last for years.
    One side has all the power and cunning and the other side has righteousness. It's kind of like a Mexican Standoff, but one Mexican is bigger and meaner than the other. But "It's the bodies, Stupid", if one side won't stop squawking and the other side won't stop killing the struggle will heat up. If nothing else, Nic. has a new generation of leaders schooled in the streets and jails and hospitals, not asking for safe zones in the universities where they don't have to hear opposing viewpoints or demanding counseling because somebody chalked a nasty on the sidewalk.

    It is said that a people get the government they deserve, and Nic. sure seems like an example of that.

    Lotta gossip and resentment, little comments about where they are going to move if war breaks out. I don't see a full fledged war but is the economy drops people will vote with their feet, which works into Sandi hands. They are the government of the poor, so more poor people are good for the country!

    Also heard a story that O. inherited INSS cash rich with 900 employees, and blew it up to 3000 employees, some Party hacks who were just put on the payroll of INSS so they would have an income. So the issue (one issue) isn't one of INSS reform, but of INSS looting. Hard pill to swallow for a party that prides itself on social services.

    "Support mental health or I'll break your head"


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    Viejo del Foro Daddy-YO's Avatar
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    Default Re: Fixing Nicaragua

    Students were the vocal and visible rebellion of April 19. Even with Ortega (Murillo?) shutting down TV stations, they grabbed the international news spotlight with social media on the www. But was it really about INSS? More likely they were tired of the same old political shit and fed-up with the Sandinistas having shut down democratic choice in Nicaragua. (Recall the corruption perceptions index of 2017: Nicaragua was #151(tied with Haiti) - steadily dropping from 2012 - of 180 countries total (Somolia#180).) Yes, and the students were determined to push for change to the point of standing up against bullets - bravely or stupidly, depends on which side of the barricades your sympathy lay. (It's the young who go to war for a reason.)

    It kind of reminds me of the demonstrations outside the 1968 Democratic convention in Chicago, 50 fuckin' years ago! The police didn't use bullets (?), but they drew blood. It was mostly students, protesting the war in Nam against a gov't that offered no democratic choice. Nixon got elected that year by what he called the "great silent majority".

    So I wonder: how is Nicaragua's silent majority divided? Not that it really matters in a country where the vote has been rendered meaningless.
    I never met a Semite I didn't like.

  9. #9

    Default Re: Fixing Nicaragua

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/1...rights_abuses/

    He could still pull this off and retain power until he died, or the next election.

    Throwing the Chamuka under the bus would be a good start. She resigns and they appoint a prominent opposition figure as VP, agree to a viable opposition and clean elections.

    The problem as I see it is, no one at the table is as cunning as Ortega. Daddy-Yo needs to dust off his copy of The Prince and make it available to the clergy participating in the dialogue.

    They could skip ahead to page 48 and see their fate,, the story of Oliveratto da Fermo and his uncle, Giovanni Fogliani.

    Another problem is, who replaces Ortega if they by some miracle do depose him? Eden Pastora,,, who sees a Yanqui conspiracy behind all of this? Not only has El Comandante effectively consolidated his power throughout his reign, but he has eliminated any viable opposition.

    Or, DO takes the fall, resigns and power passes to Rosario . She makes some cosmetic changes and maintains the -(now Murillo) dynasty.
    If I were DO I'd hire a food taster.

    Do the Nicarguans really want a democracy?

    "...Face it...it is the culture and the culture is doomed to selling fritangas on the corner and getting more zinc every election.
    So sad that such a rich country with beautiful, peaceful people have to endure such a dictator, but maybe it is for the best, all things considered.
    ..."

    Or, would they be just as happy with a kinder, gentler ,, kleptocracy?
    And , more pigs and zin thrown into the bargain?
    And an agreement from the PN that they shoot the students in the extremities instead of face, head, and torso.

    Then again, maybe not:

    https://www.laprensa.com.ni/2018/05/...a-mil-personas


    I guess we're going to find out.
    Last edited by KeyWestPirate; 05-13-2018 at 09:46 PM.

  10. #10

    Default Re: Fixing Nicaragua

    The looting of the INSS fund implies that the vast pot of gold--OPM-- has run out. It gets nastier from now on. When they killed all those people he crossed a line and there is no going back, no more Mr. Nice. Venezuela can't help and Ortega still refuses to do the obvious and sell his country to China.

    The emphasis on the demonstrators now is democracy, get rid of the Ortegas, and no more Guardia (although they are not saying that yet in so many words). Not saying they are going to win, just saying the ante is up from forest fires and Gramp's pension.

    "Support mental health or I'll break your head"


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    Dog Whisperer cookshow's Avatar
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    Default Re: Fixing Nicaragua

    We been watching the coming attractions, tomorrow the Show starts.

    The few of us in Country could not explain the vibration we are feeling here.

    About to get real...
    ‎"You know what you say when people tell you you can't do something? Fool, shut your mouth up!"
    Ernie K Doe

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    TRN Science officer bill_bly_ca's Avatar
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    Default Re: Fixing Nicaragua

    Priest trying to calm the crowds was shot today - It is going to get nasty
    ==================================================
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    Active TRN Member RGV AG's Avatar
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    Default Re: Fixing Nicaragua

    Quote Originally Posted by bill_bly_ca View Post
    Priest trying to calm the crowds was shot today - It is going to get nasty
    Was he really shot? I saw it break on twatter, and then several people and or groups came out and said it was not true, that he had just been jostled. I don't think he was shot as the local media would have been all over that like a duck on a June bug. I hope a padre wasn't shot.

    I just don't can't see a clear path to all this getting toned down without something major happening and or giving. I know a lot of the common folk in Nicaragua are worn ass out tired of this stuff.

  14. #14

    Default Re: Fixing Nicaragua

    Talking to a rock or a tree stump is not always productive. It's like the old saying "Don't argue with Stupid, you don't have the experience to win". The Ortegas are old poker players who are not going to give away the store to some long winded negotiators, especially when their base is still solid.

    I think the church's angle in breaking its neutrality is to prevent a body bath. By world standards, 60 dead is beginner stuff.

    People abroad just reading the opposition stuff and talking to people who always disliked Danny anyway get a distorted view. See TV channel 4 online. Army's statement was not quite so neutral as the opposition press puts it and some of the vandalism really appears to be street criminals. I'm not saying there is not overlap with JS and common criminals, but in the disorder is a lot of room for opportunism which gets blamed on either side depending on the loyalties of who you are talking to.

    Interesting side note, Sandis are putting concrete barriers around the rotunda that has the big Hugo display in Managua. Lost a lot of symbols to white and blue paint, but you have to preserve Saint Hugo.
    Last edited by el duende grande; 05-15-2018 at 10:32 PM.

    "Support mental health or I'll break your head"


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    Viejo del Foro Daddy-YO's Avatar
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    Default Re: Fixing Nicaragua

    What's the story on the effectiveness of those 'tranques' - the road blockades? Around Leon, my wife tells me, that, not only are they preventing tractor-trailers from delivering goods to supermarkets, but they're preventing vendors from bringing staples - vegetables & fruit - to the many open markets. Also there is a shortage of gasoline since no tank trucks are getting through. She also said that the police & JS are stripping supermarkets of their merchandise. TV stations warned people a week ago to prepare for shortages. People, she said, don't believe anything will come from the 'dialogues'.

    It seems to be the tactic favored by the anti-canal campesinos:
    ... the rural residents of the National Council for the Defense of Land, Lake and Sovereignty, announced a blockade of roads throughout the country until they are included in the dialogue.
    “The government of Daniel Ortega vetoed our taking part in the dialogue and we have decided to remain in the streets until justice is achieved,” said Francisca Ramirez, in a video on social networks.
    According to Ramirez, in the 16 departments (provinces) of the country the peasants have placed road blocks and stone barriers. “We are going to force the government to dialogue with all the organizations that have been offended,” said Martin Oporta, another of the campesino leaders.
    from, https://www.havanatimes.org/?p=133412

    I suppose it's to get those sitting back on their asses involved. But it reminds me of the ghetto riots here in the States where they destroyed their own neighborhood stores - too self-destructive.

    The article goes on to say 100% Noticias is being threatened.
    I never met a Semite I didn't like.

  16. #16

    Default Re: Fixing Nicaragua

    there are a lot of players. Here in Esteli the tranques were manned by students trying to popularize their cause. They let traffic thru and had a tense standoff with the police. Tuesday night the police broke up the tranque and let the JS beat up the students a little. They were denied entrance to the Great Peoples Socialist Hospital by order of the hospital jefe, Yesterday there was a large march down the main drag to the park, the scene of the 3 killings the other week. No incidents that I know off.

    In other parts of the country the tranques are manned by canal peasants who have a different agenda. They are in limbo as far as I can tell, the canal has flopped but the contract and intent of the govmint to buy their land as less than market value is still there as far as I know.

    I have no idea what the issues are in Monimbo, but it is bitter.

    "Support mental health or I'll break your head"


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    Dog Whisperer cookshow's Avatar
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    Default Re: Fixing Nicaragua

    Bluefields is running out of food, was in town yesterday. No cooking Gas, no Cabbage, no Chicken, stores were jammed.
    ‎"You know what you say when people tell you you can't do something? Fool, shut your mouth up!"
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    House SOB Little Corn Tom's Avatar
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    Default Re: Fixing Nicaragua

    The islands must be worse.
    Life's different here ... It's a whole 'nother pace.

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    Active TRN Member RGV AG's Avatar
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    Default Re: Fixing Nicaragua

    When we lived in Nicaragua I always kept about 2 to 3 weeks worth of canned goods and non-perishable food stuffs at any given time. I also always kept 20 to 30 gallons of water stored, and a shit load of dog food for my dogs. I rotated it out.

    Given all the import requirements and steps of Nicaragua I was always leery of things being cut off, either naturally or by man made reasons. I just wonder who, or which side (assuming there are sides), is responsible for these deals. My contacts and friends there are basically saying that at any given time the "small people" in Nicaragua are going to be very harmed and whichever side can help them the fastest will get a big boost in support. My bet would be on the FSLN being able to help things quickly and co-opt support by all the small business people that live hand to mouth with about a week of safety measure in food and money.

    This whole deal is very interesting. My prediction is that talks will break down almost immediately, as by no means do I think DOS is going to go into talks with the slightest notion or prerogative to discuss free elections, his exit from power, or any significant change to the status quo. The "opposition" will have too broad and disorganized an agenda that focuses on topics that DOS/FSLN will not even consider dialoging about. But who knows.

    For any of you savvy posters that are both handsome and smart, at what point does the currency suffer? Can that happen in Nicaragua? Or should I say how does it happen in a country with a pegged devaluation?

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    Viejo del Foro Daddy-YO's Avatar
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    Default Re: Fixing Nicaragua

    Quote Originally Posted by RGV AG View Post
    For any of you savvy posters that are both handsome and smart, at what point does the currency suffer? Can that happen in Nicaragua? Or should I say how does it happen in a country with a pegged devaluation?
    Interesting questions. Despite being admittedly ugly (however, not such that I turn passers-by on the street to stone) and graced with an IQ of 101 (at times) and an enquiring mind, I looked. Wiki says
    Since 1991, the Central Bank of Nicaragua has used a crawling peg scheme, devaluing the córdoba against the United States dollar by 5% per annum.
    which was footnoted:
    Rogers, Tim (May 13, 2014). "Nicaragua seeks to de-dollarize economy". The Nicaragua Dispatch.
    However the linkage leads directly to Iyfubh (dot com) which is on the malware URL listing report, which makes me wonder where Mr. Rogers went. 'Nuff.

    People gotta eat. A barter economy may develop. Tremendous gouging for dollars or cordobas would likely result. Many neighboring farms around Leon bring in stuff by horse & cart. Border runs can be made on horseback. No question, the Sandis are sitting in the catbird seat - they've got the protected warehouses, they've got the means.
    I never met a Semite I didn't like.

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    TRN Member Mztrjoe's Avatar
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    Default Re: Fixing Nicaragua

    Interesting the Ortegas walked out on today's talks. Seems he did not like being told by a moderator to stay on subject and that he had to answer questions himself. As I understood it.

  22. #22

    Default Re: Fixing Nicaragua

    Executive summary of the dialogo:

    blah,blah,blah,yada,yada,yada
    "It's the bodies, stupid"


    Currency is an interesting thing, but we are on a dollar economy for most things. I don't think the cord is important enough to crash, if it did it would be immediately replaced by bucks, but small change would be a pita.
    Things slow but calm, big rain last night=humidity and clouds. BAC has zin in front, Lafise on the panam building some kind of wall in front to protect modern glass entrance. Only 2 vendors open at 10am in the food court, probably more due to a lack of customers than fear. Most stores open, few customers, traffic light. La Colonia fully stocked.

    Friends want to do a day trip, but with the dialogo such a flop I am holding off to see the reaction. Israelis snipers racked up 2700 casualties in one day, who knows what the NP can do if it really gets motivated.

    "Support mental health or I'll break your head"


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    TRN Science officer bill_bly_ca's Avatar
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    Default Re: Fixing Nicaragua

    I have a mental image of Jeremy Clarkson watching the screen turning to the audience and saying "Well then, that went rather badly"
    ==================================================
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    House SOB Little Corn Tom's Avatar
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    Default Re: Fixing Nicaragua

    Maria watched the whole interview and said that Daniel said nothing relevant, arrived in a helicopter, had 500 armed guards, and left in a huff with tres bitches.

    I guess it could have gone better, eh?
    Life's different here ... It's a whole 'nother pace.

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    Para aquí para acá Jonh's Avatar
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    Default Re: Fixing Nicaragua

    My wife said pretty much the same thing. Some campesinos embarassed him. He began with a smug grin and ended with a scowl. Sounds like it backfired on him.

    Either he’s the dumbest ass who ever led a country, or he knows something the rest of us don’t.

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