Fake News and Fake Money

[KeyWestPirate]

https://www.thedailybeast.com/in-nic...feed-fake-news

I always thought that this left of center news source was named after Hillary Clinton.
What is true is,, most of the lefties have deserted Nicaragua.
There is always going to be the odd apologist taking money from someone;
TeleSur and RT still talk about how wonderful life is in Venezuela.\


https://www.laprensa.com.ni/2018/10/...fondos-al-inss

So,, the article claims that the Sandinista government will "internally fund" the INSS deficit.
Details are sketchy as to the "internally fund",, INSS lost 110 thousand workers paying INTO the fund since the difficulties started,, so that can only contribute to the shortfall.
Another article explains how, despite doubling the current return,
>>>>the BCN securities offering didn't garner a single fish (you can google sucker yourself for a picture), in its first week of availability.

I SUSPECT what is going to happen is,, we will start seeing more of the link below. And even stranger Cordoba manifestations. The BCN's explanation: "The serial numbers wore off the notes" was called into question when several people noted that the bills were 1; new , and 2; were used to pay Turbas.

C$ 4 billion in C$20 cordoba notes is a lot,, but as far as the INSS goes,, it's all just a register entry anyway.
Everyone will catch on eventually,, but it will take a few months for inflation to really take off.
The next thing you will see is price control on the "granos basicos",,
and that will frost the campesinos who will be quickly paid less than their production cost.

Is this sounding familiar to anyone ???
It's DejaVu all over again.


https://www.laprensa.com.ni/2018/10/...ie-sean-falsos


Danny has some existing remnants of loans that he could re-purpose.
He may even be able to hide the diversion from the lenders for at least a while.
Everyone keeps a pretty good eye on their money in Nicaragua,, but what can they do?
They are not going to give him any more anyway,, and he knows it.


I predict that Ortega will be out of dollars by the end of the year.
We should start seeing the "Skinny Cuban,, Fat Cuban" phenomenon next year,,
the Nicaraguans with remesas will maintain their weight,, the rest will skinny down

[el duende grande]

If you da govmint, always ways to make money. More import duties, make expats or others join inss, enhanced tax collection on their enemies. The inss thing is tricky, though, as most longterm expats are too old to join inss. Lower quality of service is already under way, Arizona VA style.
Nic is still a cheap date, lotta money in Cuba,Venezuela. Even Iran, which has nothing to do with Nic., might help out of spite because of US embargoes. Even Rocket Boy might get a chuckle out of it.

[Jonh]

With 110,000 fewer “contributors,” doesn’t that mean 110,000 fewer payees eventually? Assuming they come to prefer Uncle Sugar’s handouts and opportunities.

Fewer people means less demand for goods and services, thus easing inflation.

[el duende grande]

The demographics of beggar socialism=shrink the population to match the economy! Inss is broke now, future payouts are a minor concern.

Problem is, if you count PR, there are 8 failed/failing nations in Latin America and a high likelihood they are going to drag the others down with them.

For any wannabee expats out there in cyberspace, I have revised my thinking on good countries to go to. The nearest winner is now Bermuda, with CR and Panama being honorable mentions for next 0 to 10 years..

[Little Corn Tom]

The demographics of beggar socialism=shrink the population to match the economy! Inss is broke now, future payouts are a minor concern.

Problem is, if you count PR, there are 8 failed/failing nations in Latin America and a high likelihood they are going to drag the others down with them.

For any wannabee expats out there in cyberspace, I have revised my thinking on good countries to go to. The nearest winner is now Bermuda, with CR and Panama being honorable mentions for next 0 to 10 years..

https://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-livin...untry2=Bermuda

Who can afford Bermuda though? It is more expensive than the US in every category.

[KeyWestPirate]

https://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-livin...untry2=Bermuda

Who can afford Bermuda though? It is more expensive than the US in every category.

$8 dollar beer!!


Nicaragua: Siempre Cerveza Barata


Hard to get solid news, NuevaYa is totally unreliable and BS, but their pics of dead people on the streets amuse me.
LaPrensa has a battle ax to grind,, Nuevo Diario, Confidencial, Today, Havana Times,, are all on the side of the golpistas.

Does the truth matter?
We just went through an exercise in truth in the US.

Being a Jubilado I had the opportunity to watch it all,, from Cristine Ford's medicated, little girl voice, confused, testimony,,
to Kavanaugh's fiery denial.
Is Nicaragua any different? We all know where the truth lies,, here AND there.

How relevant is the truth?

Tip O'Neill said,, "All politics is local",,
Mao said,, "All political power grows out of the barrel of a gun",,


But that was 1938, and the world is a vastly different place. Nicaragua can not exist in a vacuum, not without returning to a rural economy.

They manufacture almost nothing. Even something as simple as a machete comes from El Salvador.
El Salvador doesn't want to be paid in Cordoba (especially in 20 cordoba notes with no serial numbers) -- for the machetes,, and all the Truper power tools they sell in Nicaragua,,

They want to be paid in dollars.

You don't trade frijol for gasoline and diesel,, you sell the frijol and coffee on the international market,, and with the dollars you get, you buy gas, and fertilizer, and tires for your car from Costa Rica.

Tourists leave a lot of dollars behind, and a poor country like Nicaragua could always count on donations from sympathetic fellow socialists,, and loans from the multilateral lenders.

But that all changed when Ortega decided to wash the streets with the blood of students. The sexual violence sounds perverse, something out of the Congo. So,, the donations are gone; the tourists are gone, The cruise ship passengers are staying on the ship; and the NicaAct is going to eliminate any access to new loans.

Without some influx of dollars,, Nicaragua's economy is going to contract drastically.

China might step up and buy the country.
I'm not sure why,, but I have noticed that all the pulperias in Costa Rica are run by Chinese.

Venezuela just nailed down a $5 billion emergency loan from the Chinos.
It's hard to imagine the Venezuelans have any spare change. They may send some Petros . . . .

Iran and Russia might see some benefit in some term pot stirring,, but if they do it within the next two years, it will generate a lot of unfortunate attention from John Bolton and Nikki Haley,, and by extension,, President Trump.

Nicaragua doesn't have the two years to wait,, for a possible Spartacus or Pocahontas.
Ortega may survive,, as has Maduro,, but like Venezuela,,
it will be in the context of a very badly damaged country and an impoverished population.

SOME Nicaraguans would have valid asylum claims to push in the US,, most will not.
Costa Rica is reaching the breaking point.

Shrink the population is going to become increasingly difficult.
Where do they go??

[el duende grande]

With 7 other failed nations in the region and a buttload of stray Asians, Africans, and Moslems, that is a real conundrum! They are hiring in northern Canada, bring your winter chanclas.

Hell, Boers are moving to Russia and Georgia to get away from the communist genocide in their own country.

Goes to the point that behind a lot of this political strife is a crisis of overpopulation. Hard to split the pie when too many people showed up to dinner.

[Little Corn Tom]

With 7 other failed nations in the region and a buttload of stray Asians, Africans, and Moslems, that is a real conundrum! They are hiring in northern Canada, bring your winter chanclas.

Hell, Boers are moving to Russia and Georgia to get away from the communist genocide in their own country.

Goes to the point that behind a lot of this political strife is a crisis of overpopulation. Hard to split the pie when too many people showed up to dinner.

Hmmmm,,,,,sounds like one of my rants about ten years ago.

[Jonh]

It's not overpopulatoin, it's too many of the wrong kind of people.

[bill_bly_ca]

The bond offering went completely unsold. Not a single bond sold.

This weekend showed Danny was going to sell each and every plot that the squatters were on - So there were almost 10,000 squatters. DOS inc offers them for say at $2K or $5k each (A kinda of an easy call to rich family in the USA or the EU) and viola the treasury has $50 mil US - Pretty crafty on his part.

[cookshow]

Watching this shit storm from comfort of a 1st World home, priceless.

So much, at so many levels going on.

Coast been calm but not untouched. A growing anger om both sides that I see over here. The pot is boiling.

[el duende grande]

Even traffic is affected. More than ever, but with a nasty edge, like screw you, I don't care. Tube says INSS lost 50,000 voluntary participants. Folks who used to sit on the porch and wave to the neighbors are now inside.
Kids were having a screamathon at a pinata the other day. Aunt came in and yelled "Vandalicos, Ya!".
And like N. Ireland's "troubles" in polite society here we now have "la situacion".

May you be cursed to live in interesting times, yada, yada, yada. Staying home and working in the garden makes more scene than seeing Nicaragua. Anthuriums are my new thing.

[cookshow]

Hard to put into words, but it aint the same.

[Little Corn Tom]

Hard to put into words, but it aint the same.

Funny isn't it......when you take Optimism, Hope, Growth and Future out of the dialogue....attitudes change.

[KeyWestPirate]

Funny isn't it......when you take Optimism, Hope, Growth and Future out of the dialogue....attitudes change.

With some luck it will just be a two year bump in the road.

With luck some hard lessons will be learned,, much harder for some than others.

A lot of cleanup to be done, a lot of unhappy people.

But, life goes on. There are kids to feed and educate.
It's not the Congo.
Yet.

[Jonh]

Watching this shit storm from comfort of a 1st World home, priceless.

You mean up here where Congresswomen call for their followers to physically attack her opponents in public places, and they actually do it? And Gov. officials have people murdered for crossing them? Where is this first world you're talking about? I ain't seen it in years.

[el duende grande]

The last bump in the road was a 15 year civil war followed by a 20 year economic depression.

For you dreamers out in cyberspace, some of the Dutch Islands might be worth looking at.

With some luck it will just be a two year bump in the road.

With luck some hard lessons will be learned,, much harder for some than others.

A lot of cleanup to be done, a lot of unhappy people.

But, life goes on. There are kids to feed and educate.
It's not the Congo.
Yet.

[cookshow]

With some luck it will just be a two year bump in the road.

With luck some hard lessons will be learned,, much harder for some than others.

A lot of cleanup to be done, a lot of unhappy people.

But, life goes on. There are kids to feed and educate.
It's not the Congo.
Yet.

Are you on crack. 2021 he does it again?

[el duende grande]

If he can swing it, he will run in '21. Danny ain't no quitter!.
But 3 years is a long time in a touchy situation, too many variables to guestimate the future.

Right now it looks like another UNO rerun, everybody against Danny with no principles involved and no real resolution to anything, if the country does not fall apart first.

[cookshow]

On so many levels this is a mess. Watching it is stomach turning..

[bill_bly_ca]

People are reporting Cords entering circulation with OUT serial numbers.

Watch your change.

[el duende grande]

And the stuff that doesn't show up on the news is the psychological effect. Lotta folks cracking up on the installment plan.
Probably a ton of Nicas in mijami saying "I told you so".

On so many levels this is a mess. Watching it is stomach turning..

[KeyWestPirate]

Are you on crack. 2021 he does it again?

I don't mean to minimize the suffering. This financial dislocation is going to be difficult for many.
The major cities with urban poor will be most affected.
Danny could buy them off if he had the money; I suppose we can look to Venezuela's history for guidance here.

How long it is going to last is any one's guess.
The World Bank is projecting two years, and then a slow recovery.

A coupe of other things are lining up, and not favorably:
Nicaragua beef exports are down 45%,, with no relief in sight. Venezuela WAS a big customer.
Coffee prices are up a little,, $1.13 this morning,, but Nicaragua needs $1.35 to break even.
Many producers are saddled with debt from the year before last.


So many little things will change:
The missionary kids who used to fill the planes with their exuberance and T-shirts have found somewhere else to sell Jesus.
The medical brigadistas have moved to Panama.

It was always as much about them as it was about Nicaragua, but the dollars they brought were helpful.

And the Brigadistas fixed teeth, fixed knees, fixed eyes.
Nicaragua medicine is not all it's cracked up to be.

The cloud that is currently hanging over Ncaragua are the proposed sanctions.
Those will happen after the mid-terms, so by end of year.
Speculation is rampant, but the legislation is designed to prevent access by Nicaragua to the multilateral lenders.
Talk about sanctions for the entire Ortega - Murillo family may be wishful thinking by the La Prensa editorial board.
We will have to just wait and see.


We decided NOT to buy the place in Tucson. Shelley has two years left to work,, it didn't make sense.
I miss Nicaragua, and it's been quiet in the north. We plan to use the money to double the size of the house in La Lima
I have some new plans. My apples did very well,, but no one took care of the trees while I was gone.
But,, I proved the concept.

We have been growing potatoes successfully the last two years.
So, there is that. They are a lot harder to steal than corn.

We'll be more careful,, not drive at night, I've been taking pictures of the walled homes in Tucson.
Nicaragua will come roaring back - eventually.

[Jonh]

They need a politician wearing a MNGA hat, Make Nicaragua Great Again. Blue and white, of course.

[cookshow]

Cracks me up to see people speculating. Who is the next Dictator???