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Thread: Steal Little, Steal (REALLY) Big

  1. #1

    Default Steal Little, Steal (REALLY) Big

    https://havanatimes.org/?p=148795


    So, this would be 20% of the Nicaraguan yearly GDP.
    Not bad,, I'd estimated an amount like $300 to $500 million

    Equivalent to Donald Trump making off with $4 trillion.

    It makes Aleman look like a piker,, robbing cell phones at bus stops.

    The article seems more informed speculation than hard fact, but the chisme will further outrage public opinion.


    In Nicaragua something doesn't have to be true to be a fact.



    I predicted the dialog would renew when the enchanted couple (or rather,, the BCN, ran out of dollars. End of March. Looks like the Daniel and Rosario have dollars to last for a long time. Maybe they will lend some to the BCN, at a suitable interest rate, of course.

    Since Vern is back on site, a freight train = economy analogy is appropriate. An economy is like a freight train. Once it's heading in the one direction, as in the case of Nicaragua,, down,, it's very hard to slow and stop. It's even tougher to turn the train around. We are heading for an eventual IMF bailout. How long,, and how deep,, is the only question.

    The dialog is a good first step. It might get the political prisoners released. But it's not going to change the direction of the economy in the short term.

    The lack of eternal financing and donations is what is killing Danny, and what will continue to strap the country. Prices are going up across the board, as people are anticipating the Cordoba devaluation.

    Look for electricity to start disappearing one day a week,, maybe not Managua,, but everywhere else. Disnorte customers pay their electric bill in Cordoba, but petroleum sells for dollars.

  2. #2
    Para aquí para acá Jonh's Avatar
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    Default Re: Steal Little, Steal (REALLY) Big

    A normal human being in charge would say, "Oh, things aren't going well so I'd better change some policies to fix things." But politicians are not normal people, and when their policies do damage they are either too proud to change, or the damage was intentional.

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    TRN Science officer bill_bly_ca's Avatar
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    Default Re: Steal Little, Steal (REALLY) Big

    So if I Understand the HT piece, he is stating that ...

    1) All of this accounting is to see who bought what and how with PVDSA cash. (Assumed DOS)
    2) Identify all of the people that head those shell companies. (Appointed by DOS)
    3) Put all of those people under Majknsity (sp?) sanction. (As DOS is currently playing deck shuffle with company heads)

    4) Extrapolated - Hoped for outcome that DOS's base evaporates with their bank seised and them not able to window shop in Miami and LA (and I guess NY in summer)

    Might work, but that is a good 8 months to one year to percolate would you think?
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  4. #4

    Default Re: Steal Little, Steal (REALLY) Big

    " . . .Might work, but that is a good 8 months to one year to percolate would you think? ...'


    At least,, look at how long it took the 2008 recession to turn,, even after almost a $1 trillion was thrown into the pot. This contraction is not going to turn on its own. Think Greece,, Argentina. They are not going to pass out the bailout money until they feel it's not going to be pissed away, or stolen.Look at Venezuela,, with all that oil to prop up Maduro, has still taken a good three years to go to shit. I remember when they were trying to keep the Bolivar at 6 to the dollar. Now its 250K Bolivars to the dollar,, if you could find someone stupid enough to buy your Bolivars.

    The upper 1% in Nicaragua have their money stashed here,, and there, and everywhere. If it's true that he stole $2.5 billion,, it's not all his,, he's spread it around. So what if they can't go to Miami or New York,, there is still Paris and Madrid. They have long since changed their money into dollars or euros,, taken it out of Nicaragua, and will weather the storm.

    Entonces, I'm beginning to think like the Big Dwarf,, that it's going to a long haul. I originally thought that they could turn it in a coupe of years,, if Ortega left.

    Minimal damage, missionaries and tourists flood back in,, World Bank, IDB, BCIE, open the purse again. I was wrong. Tourists are day trippers from CR visiting Granada, Omnetepe, mostly - - - SJdS,, and some cruise ship passengers. Wealth accumulated over the last ten years is being used up. Banks are reluctant to lend, knowing where this is going.

    When the value of the Cordoba goes down the inodoro, there will be some bent people.
    But, by that time it will be too late. The sound of that flush will be heard from Rivas to Somoto.



    No one is going to lend as long as Ortega is here. And so far,, he hasn't gotten much "cooperation" , Nica Speak for Moncada begging on the world's corners with a tin cup money.
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