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Thread: No Ortega?

  1. #1
    House SOB Little Corn Tom's Avatar
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    Default No Ortega?

    Pussy is a no show for 2 days!....... Why bother?

    https://www.foxnews.com/world/nicara...oors-no-ortega
    Life's different here ... It's a whole 'nother pace.

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    Para aquí para acá Jonh's Avatar
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    Default Re: No Ortega?

    He's probably laughing in a corner somewhere.

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    TRN Science officer bill_bly_ca's Avatar
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    Default Re: No Ortega?

    Stalling for time...
    ==================================================
    Dude !!!.... Its a Canal !!! Can you Dig it ??

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    Para aquí para acá Jonh's Avatar
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    Default Re: No Ortega?

    Kim Jong Un told him to lay low for a while.

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    Viejo del Foro el duende grande's Avatar
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    Default Re: No Ortega?

    Keep a date waiting to see if they are really interested?

    "Support mental health or I'll break your head"


  6. #6

    Default Re: No Ortega?

    He's not serious. He can look at Maduro's economy and see that a broken country is no guarantee of his exit as long as he maintains police and army loyalty.

    We're in for a long ride.

    It hasn't started yet.
    As long as you have access to dollars . . .
    And someone doesn't hit you over the head with a rock .

    The informal economy will include a lot of begging . .

    Think Somoza.

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    Viejo del Foro el duende grande's Avatar
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    Default Re: No Ortega?

    Funny you should mention Somoza. The way Jimmy carter defeated him was to cut of his bullets and greenbacks, even Israel couldn't give him anything.
    The US is probably not in a position to do either, and Trump is no war President. Suck it up Pirate, 5 to 20 year hold.

    "Support mental health or I'll break your head"


  8. #8
    Active TRN Member RGV AG's Avatar
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    Default Re: No Ortega?

    Quote Originally Posted by el duende grande View Post
    Funny you should mention Somoza. The way Jimmy carter defeated him was to cut of his bullets and greenbacks, even Israel couldn't give him anything.
    The US is probably not in a position to do either, and Trump is no war President. Suck it up Pirate, 5 to 20 year hold.
    A camera lens capturing the blood lust of ill educated and ill trained dolts is what defeated Somoza. That and all his neighbors were tired of his shit. Carter gave in to public opinion. POS's minions still might be good for a major gaffe.

    Funny how history repeats itself at times, that is very possible for POS. The economy is in the big shitter and is fixing to get a lot worse, it is circling the toilet, but hasn't gone down quite yet. The 3.5% increase on payroll costs, that have risen steadily at a good clip for 12 years, is about to have Nicaragua seeing a steady slowdown in the Free Zones and other for export deals. The elimination of the INSS employee contribution cap has just put about 8.5% payroll reduction onto the small salaried class that was earning decently. If the salaries affected are in Cords, and not pegged to the USD, then as time goes by the earnings further decrease.

    Historically there has not been a revolution when the affected populace could immigrate, and that is taking place in Nicaragua. But there have been plenty of governmental changes when the money runs out and the cash stops flowing.

    The whole dialog deal is nothing but pure BS, just like it was the first time. This is like covered in the 2nd chapter of Leftist Commie Revolutions for Dummies. "When your ass is fully in a crack, start talking and supposedly treating", "until you can get even and or get the upper hand again". The NVA did it when Nixon was bombing the shit out of them, look at the air casualties before the talks and once the bombing ceased and after they were rearmed versus the casualties after Giap & Co. canned the talks. Truly amazing. Reagan broke the CCCP's, well it wasn't all him, by breaking them financially. As a quick aside can you all believe that it was 39 years ago that USA beat the CCCP's at hockey with a bunch of college kids? The anniversary was just a few days ago. That was a huge deal back then. As a kid with strong Texas and US ties and sentiment in CDMX that made me just gloat and be so damm happy.

    What really bums me out about this whole deal, besides the obvious suffering and hardships for the Nicaraguan people and country, is that by and large the coolest, most professional, and nicest folks I dealt with in Nicaragua were mainly old time loyal FSLN people. POS has betrayed the shit out of that group because neither they nor their kin are gonna be well heeled when autopsy report on the economic collapse comes out.

    Maduro has the oil, and just the fact that he has it and even if he isn't selling a ton of it at high prices gives him economic sustenance. POS et.al don't have that.

  9. #9

    Default Re: No Ortega?

    OK,, we know the economy is going to tank, and it is going to be a longer dump than I originally had thought.

    Quite honestly, I don't think that the dialog will have much to do with where the country (and the economy) is going,, unless it opens up access to the multi lateral lenders once again.

    By the time that happens, it will take a lot of money pumped into the economy to turn the train around.

    There was an article in La Prensa about all the re-naming and re-badging of the Petronic stations in Managua.

    Riddle me this one (and there may be some incorrect assumptions here):

    Albanisa has been sanctioned by the US.
    Venezuela is no longer providing oil to Nicaragua

    Alanisa has the monopoly in Nicaragua for petroleum imports
    According to the La Prensa article,, Nicaragua is now getting the lion's share of its oil from Texas,, some 77%

    https://www.laprensa.com.ni/2019/03/...ivar-sanciones


    So,, is John Bolton asleep at the switch,, or am I missing something?
    I can always drive to CR or Honduras for gasoline,, but Disnorte,, that's a lot of pichingas.

    If the electricity goes,,, because there is no oil for the generators,,, that will really put Ortega's feet to the fire.

    We had a brief outage this morning,, nothing unusual, we get those.
    I notice them because the internet fails (no power to the tower).

  10. #10
    Viejo del Foro Daddy-YO's Avatar
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    Default Re: No Ortega?

    Quote Originally Posted by KeyWestPirate View Post
    OK,, we know the economy is going to tank,
    A recession is clearly underway. Tank? I confess I don't understand 3rd world economics. I barely grasp US economics where phony derivative stocks based on sub-prime mortgage cons nearly caused the collapse of the global financial system in 2008's 'Great Recession'. US taxpayers bailed out those captains of America, so all's groovy.

    When things get tight in the 'developing' world, fewer microwaves & blenders get imported. The plans for the asphalt parking lot by the beach get shelved. 'Developing' slows. There may be a few more horse-drawn carts moving stuff about. And here in Nicaragua there'll be no shortage of rum, smokes, women, and, I expect, food. Peon labor still abounds, tho gov't tariffs may cut into sweatshop profits. What concerns businesses is a stable manufacturing environment. Throughout Latin American history military gov'ts have enjoyed some of the most stable periods.

    Does Taiwan's $100 million dollar commercial loan to Nicaragua last week foretell a desire to set up shop there just down the road from the fat US consumer market?

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    Para aquí para acá Jonh's Avatar
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    Default Re: No Ortega?

    Sounds like Taiwan is bailing out the "captains" of Nicaragua, or maybe slipping in wedge with China.

  12. #12
    Viejo del Foro Daddy-YO's Avatar
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    Default Re: No Ortega?

    The Canal-deal whereby China could buy up confiscated lands for the PLA to dig pissed off a lot of settlers of that region. The movement to fight back predates the INSS announcement that supposedly sparked the 'crisis'.

    It's the sudden-and-near-total-absence of pale faced tourists that has had the most visible effect on the Nica economy. The power of the Western press to scare off the lemmings is impressive, albeit understandable. It was notices of cheap resorts by beaches & cheap dining & cheap ice-cold beer & cheap property in the tropics near CR that drew the crowds to begin with. Now nobody wants to stay in a place where the natives are restless.

    The crucial issue seems to be that DOS & the Sandi's stole the last election and rigged the system. Isn't it ironic that the same charges against Trump 'colluding with the Ruskies' to steal the election have been front page news in the USA for the past 2 years?
    I never met a Semite I didn't like.

  13. #13

    Default Re: No Ortega?

    Quote Originally Posted by Jonh View Post
    Sounds like Taiwan is bailing out the "captains" of Nicaragua, or maybe slipping in wedge with China.


    More like a wedgie.
    $100 million is probably cheap to make a statement, leveraged with the failure of the canal, worth more.
    Taiwan has to be little careful though,, or they will wind up like HongKong. Can't pull the dragon's tail too hard.


    If there ever WAS a canal in reality.
    That might have been the scam of the century.
    Better money in a massive fraud than in actually digging and running a canal.

  14. #14
    Active TRN Member RGV AG's Avatar
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    Default Re: No Ortega?

    The biggest threat to 3rd world economies is the "perception" effect of the mess. One of the things that greatly helped Nicaragua over the last 25 or so years was that many gringos and reverse Expat Nicas felt good about Nicaragua, not only good but comfortable and secure. Thus not only them and their personal spending habits flourished there, but also portions, and in many cases totalities, of their monies stayed in Nicaragua and were available to rotate through the banking system. Credit in Nicaragua, be it for real estate developments or yogurt shop equipment or more cocinas for a comedor had been available for the last 5 or so years. Interest rates, while high by US standards, were manageable by LatAm standards. There was expansion at all levels of the Economy. The tourism was the frosted cherry on top.

    Starting about 7 years ago Nicaragua started gaining non-apparel manufacturing jobs. Besides the big Arnecom in Leon, Nicaragua didn't have much other industry, besides apparel. Well they started getting other automotive, some medical and non traditional textile jobs. Jobs that don't necessarily flee to the cheapest place at the drop of a hat. Those companies look for stability, predictability, and continuity. Right now they can't get that in Nicaragua so there is going to be contraction and non-growth on the good jobs. Executive or white collar jobs are at a premium, more so than ever before since I can remember. Capital has left the country and expansion is on hold in most areas and downsizing the word of the day.

    The Nicaraguan economy of 2010-2018 was and is not the Nicaraguan economy of the past, it had matured considerably. To regress to carretones and fritangas galore is going to be bad deal and will negatively impact, i.e. put into debt, a bunch of folks. I know several who have said Fuck It on servicing their debt and hauled ass. Before that was an avoid at all cost last ditch effort.

    As KWP has stated, at some point the paying of government folks with crappy money is going to happen and it will be bad.

  15. #15

    Default Re: No Ortega?

    " . . .And here in Nicaragua there'll be no shortage of rum, smokes, women, and, I expect, food. . . "

    True.
    In the campo there is still a lot of barter.
    Cuajada for corn, even labor is bartered when money is tight.
    Cut a tree, the chainsaw guy takes wood for his use of the chainsaw and labor.

    They prefer efectivo,, but it's in short supply,,,, between now and the first harvest.
    Coffee picking time is over,, so it's pretty dead up here.
    My lawn is still green,, but a couple of hundred feet down the hill, it's dry and dusty.

    It's only when they go to town to shop will they notice that everything is more money (and it is already!!)



    It's going to be the poor people in Managua who are going to be affected the most. Unless DOS comes up with some program to feed them a la Maduro with his CLAP pacs,,, there are going to be some restless natives as the heat builds towards May.


    Hot Managua Nights.

    Luckily,, there is that bypass north of the PanAM to Granada,, Nica 4 I think.
    I have been using that a lot
    .


    But to do the CLAP Pacs he's going to want to push campo prices for the basicos down,, as the Sandi's did after the revolution. We all know where THAT went.

    Now, as then,, price controls are not going to sit well with the campesinos.
    Nor with Pellas. Nor with Bayardo Arce (AgriCorp) ("take one for the Gipper?? I don't think so").




    Last edited by KeyWestPirate; 03-04-2019 at 03:20 PM.

  16. #16
    Active TRN Member RGV AG's Avatar
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    Default Re: No Ortega?

    Quote Originally Posted by KeyWestPirate View Post
    "


    But to do the CLAP Pacs he's going to want to push campo prices for the basicos down,, as the Sandi's did after the revolution. We all know where THAT went.

    Now, as then,, price controls are not going to sit well with the campesinos.
    Nor with Pellas. Nor with Bayardo Arce (AgriCorp) ("take one for the Gipper?? I don't think so").
    Hard core leftist socialist trickle down economics are like a trickle of virulent diarrhea. It will just keep on keeping on until it eventually kills you, that is what is going to happen to the campesinos too. Arce et.al. will raise beautiful crops, with reduced labor costs, and export the stuff for "hard currency" supposedly. Nicaragua actually produced some stuff during the 80's, but all the good stuff was exported. A guy I know was a truck driver during that time and he would haul Red Beans to GUA and CR I think, and would sometimes pick up bad quality black beans, which are cheaper, and haul them back. He said it was the most profitable time of his life, he was always able to jack a few hundred pounds, and the only time he ever had issues is when the guy that they sent with him to make sure he wasn't stealing took too much.

    I know locally grown food stuffs were also shipped to Cuba and some of the eastern block countries. As long as there are plantains the campesinos and many others won't starve. But eating the mango stew and drinking nasty guaro only goes so far. Actually, I don't think Nicaragua will get that bad in all reality, as there is enough money in the country now to always ensure supplies of some basic food stuffs and such. But things like toilet paper, "pampers", kotex, plastic goods and such are gonna get real expensive, more so than the already high ass prices.

    And to think in 1977 they assembled televisions and refrigerators in Nicaragua to have to come to this. Nicaragua just can't and won't get out of its own way.

  17. #17

    Default Re: No Ortega?

    Quote Originally Posted by Daddy-YO View Post
    It's the sudden-and-near-total-absence of pale faced tourists that has had the most visible effect on the Nica economy. The power of the Western press to scare off the lemmings is impressive, albeit understandable. It was notices of cheap resorts by beaches & cheap dining & cheap ice-cold beer & cheap property in the tropics near CR that drew the crowds to begin with. Now nobody wants to stay in a place where the natives are restless.
    To be fair to us "lemmings", not all of us were scared off by the Western press. My experience walking the streets of Nicaragua alone (especially in Managua) is probably far removed from the experience of many of those who live in established homes with family and friend around to grant a measure of protection. The restlessness in the natives is not simply a concoction of the media. I saw it first hand.
    Soy el chele mono.

  18. #18

    Default Re: No Ortega?

    Quote Originally Posted by drlemcor View Post
    To be fair to us "lemmings", not all of us were scared off by the Western press. My experience walking the streets of Nicaragua alone (especially in Managua) is probably far removed from the experience of many of those who live in established homes with family and friend around to grant a measure of protection. The restlessness in the natives is not simply a concoction of the media. I saw it first hand.


    Did you get any anti-gringo expressions while you were still here?

    Either from the police or from the protestors?

    There are two things happening here:

    1. Ortega is trying to maintain power,, for a variety of reasons.
    He is vulnerable to prosecution if he leaves,, or worse, if one of the dead protestors' families get their hands on him.
    I'm sure that many Nicaraguans feel more passionately about his deserved fate than I do.
    Whether he can move his ill-gotten gains,, and keep them hidden, is also questionable.

    2. Totally apart (well not totally,, as the free external money depend on a political solution that most view as Ortega leaving), is the current and future
    state of the economy. I don't believe that the dialog has,, and will have,, squat to do with the economy.

    It's all about the numbers at this point, and they are not pretty.
    Ortega can pay his people with an unlimited supply of Cordobas,, as did Venezuela, but unlike Venezuela,, he doesn't have the oil to keep the lights on.
    At some point he has to have dollars to buy oil from Texas, Machetes from El Salvador, and plastic pipe from Costa Rica.
    The $1.5 billion in remittances flowing into Nicaragua will help immensely.

    I've been pulling more dollars out of the cajero recently than Cordoba. More people have been asking for them.
    The official exchange today is 32.72, but I've gotten as much as 33.8 recently.

    The bills I have been getting are unused 20's, so fresh and crisp that they stick together, and separate with difficulty

  19. #19
    Para aquí para acá Jonh's Avatar
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    Default Re: No Ortega?

    Quote Originally Posted by KeyWestPirate View Post
    The bills I have been getting are unused 20's, so fresh and crisp that they stick together, and separate with difficulty
    I would invest in one of those pens that detects counterfeit bills...

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    House SOB Little Corn Tom's Avatar
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    Default Re: No Ortega?

    Quote Originally Posted by Jonh View Post
    I would invest in one of those pens that detects counterfeit bills...
    Amen!!
    Life's different here ... It's a whole 'nother pace.

  21. #21

    Default Re: No Ortega?

    Quote Originally Posted by KeyWestPirate View Post
    Did you get any anti-gringo expressions while you were still here?

    Either from the police or from the protestors?
    There are a certain number of Nicaraguans who are anti-gringo, but this is nothing new. In my experience, they are a minority. I ran into them in 1996 (my first trip to Nicaragua), and I've run into them on every trip thereafter. The recent political unrest doesn't appear to have increased the anti-gringo sentiment.

    The restlessness that drove me off wasn't targeted at gringos. It was civil war sentiment--either anti-Ortega or pro-Ortega.

    One might ask, "Well, if they weren't mad at you, then why did you leave?" The answer is that the restlessness has increased the number and ferocity of criminals in Nicaragua (especially in Managua). I was living in Managua when this all went down, and I got to see how the streets got steadily more dangerous. I understand that they're more dangerous for everyone--not just a random walking gringo, but even though the danger wasn't targeted, it was real and pervasive.

    As I said before, if I spent most of my time in my own vehicle and house, then maybe I wouldn't have noticed or been impacted by this uptick in criminal activity, but as I spent most of my time on the streets--I couldn't help but to see it and feel it.
    Soy el chele mono.

  22. #22
    Viejo del Foro el duende grande's Avatar
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    Default Re: No Ortega?

    "Distance from Disorder". It makes no sense to go places that are troubled unless you have a prevailing reason to go there. I goes along with the 4S Rule.

    "Support mental health or I'll break your head"


  23. #23
    Viejo del Foro Daddy-YO's Avatar
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    Default Re: No Ortega?

    I am an ugly American, an all-too-obviously gringo. I have wandered Leon, Poneloya, las Penitas, and commercial spots in Managua for the past 4 months, day & nite. I felt no sense of danger or threat, no animosity from anyone. True, I avoid ghettos populated by punks and gang-bangers, as I do when I traipse around Philly - run-down areas that show little pride of place. (Rule of thumb: where would you take your 4-yr-old son?)

    Nicaragua is more Nica now, it's a busy, working country, less of a playground for ageless gringo kids. The confrontational unrest of last April/May is absent (underground?). The nature of Nica policing has radically changed. It had been a casual presence, like Mayberry RFD. Now police patrols are a daily sight, more frequent in Managua. Regular cops together with the black-uniformed anti-riot force in pick-ups, heavily armed. People grumble and shake their heads about it, but life goes on. There's no actual conflict, just the presence of gov't forces to maintain their law. Not very different from the excessive use of federales in other LAm countries I've traveled in. Or, for that matter, US cities after race riots (as I'd seen in Baltimore & D.C.).

    Let's face it, the USA is paradise on earth as far as many Nicas are concerned, given half a chance they'd risk all they have to go there. Many depend on the remittances their families working in the USA send them. But with Trump harping about building a wall to keep out the hordes of poor latinos, many have shelved such hopes & dreams. That doesn't translate into a hate of gringos. And despite the Sandinista rhetoric of Americans being the "enemy of humanity" I've never met a Nica who hasn't treated me cordially, or, at least, like a regular person. These are basically good people. That hasn't changed post-'crisis'.

    The only in-my-face animosity for simply being a gringo that I've ever felt in LAm was from some members of a troupe of Cuban artists performing in Ecuador. Long story.

  24. #24

    Default Re: No Ortega?

    Quote Originally Posted by Daddy-YO View Post
    I am an ugly American, an all-too-obviously gringo. I have wandered Leon, Poneloya, las Penitas, and commercial spots in Managua for the past 4 months, day & nite. I felt no sense of danger or threat, no animosity from anyone. True, I avoid ghettos populated by punks and gang-bangers, as I do when I traipse around Philly - run-down areas that show little pride of place. (Rule of thumb: where would you take your 4-yr-old son?)

    Nicaragua is more Nica now, it's a busy, working country, less of a playground for ageless gringo kids. The confrontational unrest of last April/May is absent (underground?). The nature of Nica policing has radically changed. It had been a casual presence, like Mayberry RFD. Now police patrols are a daily sight, more frequent in Managua. Regular cops together with the black-uniformed anti-riot force in pick-ups, heavily armed. People grumble and shake their heads about it, but life goes on. There's no actual conflict, just the presence of gov't forces to maintain their law. Not very different from the excessive use of federales in other LAm countries I've traveled in. Or, for that matter, US cities after race riots (as I'd seen in Baltimore & D.C.).

    Let's face it, the USA is paradise on earth as far as many Nicas are concerned, given half a chance they'd risk all they have to go there. Many depend on the remittances their families working in the USA send them. But with Trump harping about building a wall to keep out the hordes of poor latinos, many have shelved such hopes & dreams. That doesn't translate into a hate of gringos. And despite the Sandinista rhetoric of Americans being the "enemy of humanity" I've never met a Nica who hasn't treated me cordially, or, at least, like a regular person. These are basically good people. That hasn't changed post-'crisis'.

    The only in-my-face animosity for simply being a gringo that I've ever felt in LAm was from some members of a troupe of Cuban artists performing in Ecuador. Long story.
    All of the above supports my premise that NOW is a fascinating time to be in Nicaragua.

    I see more stony faces as I drive the last 6km of dirt road to the farm, but generally, if u wave,, they wave back. We're the only gringos in our neck of the woods. I used to see more in Condega,, and of course, Estelí.

    Yes, Nicaragua is more Nica, and I suppose that is a good thing.

    I've only experienced a couple of overt anti gringonexpressions in the almost 10 years I've been here. There have been some more subtle instances, such as overcharging. When I sense that,, I just walk away. It's rare when someone else doesn't have what I need.

    I agree, the majority of Nicas are accepting of our curious ways, and friendly. I did meet one gringo who had been robbed twice,, so bad things do happen. Here and everywhere.

    I have been installing a lot of chain link fence. I won't grow potatoes this year, it involved a lot of strangers.

    We are going to see some strange shit over the next two - three years. I'm not going to become a hermit,, but neither am I going to take unnecessary risks.

  25. #25
    TRN Science officer bill_bly_ca's Avatar
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    Default Re: No Ortega?

    Quote Originally Posted by KeyWestPirate View Post
    All of the above supports my premise that NOW is a fascinating time to be in Nicaragua.

    Last time around they only killed white guys who did the news or set up hydro dams - You should be fine :-)
    ==================================================
    Dude !!!.... Its a Canal !!! Can you Dig it ??

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