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Thread: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

  1. #301

    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    It could be argued whether we are living in Nineteen Eighty-Four. The ever present screen is here but it's not two way yet. The potential and the technology is there, and BarelyThereJoe would like to check if you have a mask on before he goes down for his nap.

    The thought police? If you keep your mouth shut you are still OK,, but if you dare open it you will be cancelled.

    George Orwell didn't get it all right, but he had the concept down pretty good.

    I'm not an Ortega fan either. The Sandis were nasty people, as bad as Castro or Stalin in their exuberant hubris.

    One story sticks with me: the death of a fellow Sandi who questioned their decision to go Marxist, instead of implementing a Costa Rica like democracy they had promised.

    The man was beaten to death with baseball bats. Along with his two children.

    There was plenty of dissension. Another favorite punishment was to gang rape a dissenter's wife in front of him, castrate him, and then beat him to death .

    The real "contra" war started while the Sandis were still fighting Somoza. Three years before the US was involved .

    They weren't Contras then, but MILPAS, and it's a truly fascinating story.

    Most of the Comandos ( as they called themselves) are getting long in the tooth. They're still out there, but most have learned to keep their mouths shut .
    Last edited by KeyWestPirate; 06-26-2020 at 10:21 PM.

  2. #302
    Viejo del Foro el duende grande's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    Dying over which band of oligarchs takes over is so yesterday.

    "Support mental health or I'll break your head"

    ...with a 6 foot stick and mask and gloves....


  3. #303

    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    Quote Originally Posted by el duende grande View Post
    Dying over which band of oligarchs takes over is so yesterday.
    Yes, the romance is gone when it turns out to be just a another coup and not a revolution.

    The Somoza family and his friends replaced by the Ortega family and his friends.

  4. #304
    Viejo del Foro Daddy-YO's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    Playing politics isn't all for naught. While Americans won't be allow to go to Europe for now, it looks like Nicas will get the green flag.
    Today's La Prensa ¿Lograron los números de Ortega sobre la pandemia convencer a la UE? Nicaragua en la lista preliminar de los ciudadanos que podrán viajar a la Unión Europea
    Nicaragua’s official coronavirus tally: 2,170 cases, 1,238 recovered, 858 active, 74 deaths
    Meanwhile Confidencial reports Nicaragua's covid-19 death toll approaches 2,000
    Nicaragua se acerca a las 2000 muertes sospechosas por pandemia de covid-19 Managua, con 722 muertos, Masaya (224), León (140) y Matagalpa (118)

    Is it a question of who do you believe? Or what works?
    For Americans raised on the GW apple tree tale, and for scientists, it's "what's the truth?" (Which may never be known.)
    In the business, as well as the political, and commonly, the personal world, it's often a question of what helps you survive, or even thrive.

  5. #305
    Viejo del Foro el duende grande's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    Or who blows the best smoke...

    "Support mental health or I'll break your head"

    ...with a 6 foot stick and mask and gloves....


  6. #306

    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    " ...Playing politics isn't all for naught. While Americans won't be allow to go to Europe for now, it looks like Nicas will get the green flag. ..."



    And they seem dead set against acknowledging that a significant part of the population has had the virus, is immune and no longer infectious. Antibody tests are cheap, and getting cheaper.


    " . . For Americans raised on the GW apple tree tale, and for scientists, it's "what's the truth?" (Which may never be known.) "

    For the rest, the truth and the narrative is whatever it takes to keep Trump from being re-elected.
    The media and establishment animosity towards Trump is simply stunning to see.
    We won't know until November the size of the choir that they are preaching to.

    Could it be, like the nun who masturbates one time too many,, Trump has pissed off one too many ?
    So, the joke goes, the nurse is confessing her sins,, the priest replies,, " Don't worry, Sister. You get 10,000 at no charge "
    The nun,,, "Uh Ooh"


    You can piss off some of the people all of the time;
    You can piss off all of the people some of the time;
    But you can't piss off all of the people all of the time.


    Apologies to Abraham Lincoln

  7. #307
    TRN Science officer bill_bly_ca's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    Quote Originally Posted by Daddy-YO View Post

    For Americans raised on the GW apple tree tale, and for scientists, it's "what's the truth?" (Which may never be known.)

    You could say it is the statistical deviation of deaths from Mar 2020 to maybe Octoberish - Compare 2000 - 2019 for the same period 2020.

    It seems the US nor Canada does not have an instantaneous death counter (e.g. within the current month) like many other countries do - The EU especially.
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  8. #308
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    The “Asian Flu” pandemic of 1957-58 caused up to 116,000 deaths in the U.S., which would translate into 215,000 deaths in 2020, roughly what we might expect the final U.S. Covid-19 death toll to be.
    It is quite probable you have never heard of that pandemic, even though its worldwide death toll was between 700,000 and 1.5 million. This is all the more surprising as, unlike SARS-CoV-2, the H2N2 virus of 1957-58 killed young people. As in most influenza pandemics, significant numbers not only of the very old (over 65) but also of the very young (under 5) died. In terms of excess mortality relative to baseline expected mortality rates, however, it was teenagers who suffered the heaviest losses.

    The biggest difference between 1957 and 2020, however, lies in the government and public response to the new pathogen. President Dwight D. Eisenhower did not declare a state of emergency in the fall of 1957. There were no state lockdowns and no school closures. Sick students simply stayed at home, as usual. Work continued more or less uninterrupted; AT&T reported peak absenteeism of 8%. Nor did the Eisenhower administration borrow to the hilt to fund transfers and loans to citizens and businesses. The president asked Congress for a mere $2.5 million (around 0.0005% of 1957 GDP) to support the Public Health Service in case of an epidemic.

    The national mood of insouciance in the face of a new and contagious disease might be summed up by the title of a minor hit by Huey “Piano” Smith and His Clowns, “Rockin’ Pneumonia and the Boogie Woogie Flu.”

    The Association of State and Territorial Health Officers declared on Aug. 27, 1957, that there would be “no practical advantage in the closing of schools or the curtailment of public gatherings as it relates to the spread of this disease.” As a Centers for Disease Control official later recalled, “ASTHO encouraged home care for uncomplicated influenza cases to reduce the hospital burden and recommended limitations on hospital admissions to the sickest patients … most were advised simply to stay home, rest, and drink plenty of water and fruit juices.”

    As today, there was a race to find a vaccine. Unlike today, however, the U.S. had a head start, thanks to the acumen of one exceptionally talented and prescient scientist, Maurice Hilleman, who was chief of the Department of Respiratory Diseases at the Army Medical Center (now the Walter Reed Army Institute of Research) from 1948 to 1957. The first New York Times report of the outbreak in Hong Kong — three paragraphs on page 3 — was on April 17. The Army Medical Center received its first influenza specimens from Hong Kong on May 13. Nine days later, Hilleman had identified the new strain. As early as July 26, doctors at Fort Ord in California began to inoculate military recruits. Approximately 4 million one-milliliter doses were released in August, 9 million in September, and 17 million in October.

    It was a different America, no question. For one thing, many Americans today would appear to have a much lower tolerance of risk than their grandparents and great-grandparents six decades ago. As Clark Whelton has recalled: For those who grew up in the 1930s and 1940s, there was nothing unusual about finding yourself threatened by contagious disease. Mumps, measles, chicken pox, and German measles swept through entire schools and towns; I had all four. Polio took a heavy annual toll, leaving thousands of people (mostly children) paralyzed or dead. There were no vaccines. Growing up meant running an unavoidable gauntlet of infectious disease. For college students in 1957, the Asian flu was a familiar hurdle on the road to adulthood … We took the Asian flu in stride. We said our prayers and took our chances. from: http://www.niallferguson.com/journalism

  9. #309
    Viejo del Foro el duende grande's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    1957 headline--
    "Negro petty criminal picks fight with 4 cops and has heart attack". 1 paragraph on page 24 of Minneapolis newspaper.
    The times are a changing.

    The media was always opportunist but not partisan and running its own agenda in league with a leftist insurrection. History will tell to what degree CDC suckered Trump and to what degree Trump suckered himself, but the media only wants destruction.

    The Asian flu was no great success story, but considerable experience has been gained on pandemics since the fifties. Taiwan had no problem responding cheaply and efficiently. They make no bones about it-- good science on day one, competent public health services, and responsible elected officials and media.

    "Support mental health or I'll break your head"

    ...with a 6 foot stick and mask and gloves....


  10. #310
    Viejo del Foro Daddy-YO's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    Quote Originally Posted by el duende grande View Post
    ... considerable experience has been gained on pandemics since the fifties. Taiwan had no problem responding cheaply and efficiently.
    No worries then. Eventually the whole world will speak Chinese and we'll all be properly taken care of, once and for all time.

  11. #311
    TRN Science officer bill_bly_ca's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    This is something a friend mentioned to me at work and it is just buzzing in my skull... It kinda went like this...


    2001 a few social misfits from their biggest Oil laden Ally flies a few plains into buildings, kills 3400 ish people and they want to know how it happened, how it could be prevented, took extreme means (Airports and immigration) to stem the perceived threats from emigrants (legal and otherwise) and streamed out from the country, guns drawn, like a swarm to Afganistan, Iraq et al and to eliminate the scourge that they had no control over, but dam-it they will control it now...


    Now 20 years later - "Hey you can allow 200,000 + people to live out the last few years a little better and avoid a lot of others getting really sick by staying 6' away from people and wearing this mask" Answer: "F#ck you and your social engineering you tyrannical socialist - I will do what the hell I want.. "

    <Shrug>
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  12. #312
    Viejo del Foro el duende grande's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    Original sin--once you screw up Jan-Mar there is no good solution.
    1. Do nothing, hospitals load up and there will be more than 200k dead.
    2. Shut down with continual extensions and kill 200k and the economy .
    3.Loosen up on shutdowns with people not prepared to take reasonable precautions and you get the roller coaster we are on now.

    And the fun is just starting. Oil shale seems to have been a debt bubble, world is in a recession, leftist insurrection is on a roll, next pandemic is around the corner.

    By the way, airlines have exented their next regular MGA flights to the first week in August. CR to ease in foreign tourists starting 1 Aug. Good luck.

    Friend in Spain had miscarriage, docs gave her pills and said stay at home to avoid taking up space in hospital. Didn't work, she ended up going to hospital anyway.

    "Support mental health or I'll break your head"

    ...with a 6 foot stick and mask and gloves....


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