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Thread: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

  1. #101
    TRN Science officer bill_bly_ca's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    Quote Originally Posted by Little Corn Tom View Post
    Not true. Many, many businesses are closed or on limited hours here in Florida. Many people sent home to wait it out.

    Sorry - Poor choice of words - Here everything deemed non essential is shut - You can not beg borrow or steal a haircut or a sit down meal. Grocery stores, gas car repair etc etc. If you are not essential If you do not shut down it is a $5K fine

    Our company is open as it is deemed "Supply chain" but Toyota (the biggest Lexus factory in NA) and all their suppliers are closed. Lines at checkout are now forced at 6' apart for lines and checkouts all have Plexiglas screens

    I would say maybe 70% of work force are home

    That is what I mean as in "shut"
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  2. #102
    Viejo del Foro Daddy-YO's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    We’re holed up here in Leon, jodido, cause it seems a hell of a lot smarter than going to Jersey with the zombie overflow from NYC. It really ain’t so bad in this revolutionary capital of Covid-19 denial. The crowds on the streets are slightly smaller. There's fear, just not much. Supers are fully stocked with fewer shoppers now. Restaurants are open and even barbershops/hair salons. Taxis, intercity transport keeps going. Excellent delivery service on pizza, fried chicken, home-cooked meals and McD’s full menu; it’s cheap and arrives in 30min on motorcycle, maybe half the delivery guys wearing masks. We got plenty of alcohol gel (chemists in area/UNAN) and meds to do battle with what may be inevitable. Bought a neat homemade cloth mask. Ready to play the odds. According to WHO my odds of surviving infection are better than 12 to 1 for my age group, plus I feel healthier than I suspect others my age who aren’t getting laid so frequently on account of their ‘conditions’. All others holed up with me face 0.2% chance of the worst, 500 to 1 odds ain’t bad, and besides they’re all fit. The beaches will be crowded with young taut bods for Semana Santa; hope the godless germ doesn’t take any out.

    And it's one, two, three,
    What are we waiting for?
    Don't ask me, I don't give a damn,
    Next meal is beans & ham;
    And it's five, six, seven,
    Open up the pearly gates,
    Well there ain't no time to wonder why,
    Whoopee! we're all gonna die.

    Apologies to Country Joe for borrowing his
    "I Feel Like I'm Fixin' To Die Rag (Take 1)" refrain.

  3. #103
    Viejo del Foro el duende grande's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    Esteli and my home county in the US both racked up their first confirmed case on the same day. How is that for 6 of one or a half dozen of the other?
    I'd be safer there because our crappy regional hospital is better than our crappy regional hospital here. BUT, since I am not an illegal alien in the US, I don't get free treatment there and would have to go 100 miles to a germy big city hospital.

    And flying right now scares me more than hiding out. Plus who would care for my dogs if I croak?

    And you are right, getting laid now and again is good for stress management and helps the immune system.

    And last but not least Mexico and Brazil are led by covid-deniers. Let's see how that works out for them...

    "Support mental health or I'll break your head"

    ...with a 6 foot stick and mask and gloves....


  4. #104

    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    Things are starting to ratchet up again here. I think that the understanding that 1: everyone is going to get it eventually, it's almost inevitable, not going to die out in the short term; 2: for most people it's the flue, maybe better, maybe worse,, 3: a small minority is dying,, a bad case of influenza probably would have taken them out. They didn't need the corona virus to go.

    IT'S NOT AS BAD AS THEY MADE IT OUT TO BE!!

    Was this a Dim,, sorry, Dem, conspiracy to get their hands on more of our money? Who cares,, I'm not going to be paying it back. The 11 $Billion to "African Development"?

    The thing that might kill Trump in November is the realization that we've all been scammed, that we shut the world economy down for very little. We should have isolated the old people who had one leg on Charon's ferry anyway.

    I find it annoying that they told us,, "Don't hoard" , there is plenty of TP coming,, and I get to Costco yesterday and not a single roll of anything, much less Charmin. That is when I realized that there is a high bullshit component to all of this,, although I suspected it earlier.

    It's always sad to lose Aunt Lulu. But, it's inevitable.

  5. #105
    TRN Science officer bill_bly_ca's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    Quote Originally Posted by KeyWestPirate View Post
    IT'S NOT AS BAD AS THEY MADE IT OUT TO BE!!
    Well Italy IS 10% - John Hopkins numbers - So not sure what your threshold in for "bad"

    The odd thing is why China is so much lower (4%)

    Spain is looking more like Italy - Netherlands and Germany is way way down ...

    It will be fascinating once things calm down what those factors were (for the wild death fluctuations)
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  6. #106

    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    I was looking at USA and NYC numbers on Worldometer.com

    I get the numbers 1.5% for the US as a whole; and 1.2% for New York.
    I think that the difference is, so many more cases are being reported in New York

    What's more important is,, who's dying. This is not the Spanish Flu,, taking out the young and fit.
    We still see anecdotal cases of younger people dying,, and that is why they make the news. They remain anecdotal.


    I don't know what is going on in Italy.
    Maybe the Mediterranean Diet wasn't as healthy as they made it out to be.

  7. #107
    Para aquí para acá Jonh's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    When history looks back, the only numbers that will matter are how many died, and what percent of the population died from it. By then we may have pried the truth out of China's hands.

  8. #108
    TRN Science officer bill_bly_ca's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    That is the odd thing "Ze Ger-mans" only have 400 on 40,000 while Spain is approaching the same 10% of Italy - Some think it is the smoochy smoochy huggie huggie culture of the south of the EU caused a greater rate of transmission and possibly "More" (quantity per smooch) virus transmitted as well . THere was a good piece in the National post I'll see if I can find again.


    Here is the Hopkins link

    https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
    Last edited by bill_bly_ca; 03-27-2020 at 01:22 PM.
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  9. #109
    Viejo del Foro Daddy-YO's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    Quote Originally Posted by KeyWestPirate View Post
    I don't know what is going on in Italy.
    Maybe the Mediterranean Diet wasn't as healthy as they made it out to be.
    No, it's precisely because it works so well that they live longer. And they may be more susceptible precisely because of their diet. Whoever said wine, pasta, olive oil and garlic was a good antiviral diet against Covid-19?

    Whereas Germany's sauerkraut, beer, schnitzel & bratwurst may be just the formula.

    21.7% of Italians are over 65; 13.0% of American; 22.4% of Germans.
    Life expectancy was 82.4 in Italy; 78.7 in the States; 81 in Germany.

    I strongly suspect that the Germans are way ahead of the curve in two areas: 1) recognizing cases quickly and isolating all those in contact, and 2) medicine. I'd bet they're heavily using the antiviral hydroxychloroquine that Bayer manufactures, plus IMO they would not hesitate to use many others 'unproven in clinical trials against Cov-19' to save their own. They're a manufacturing giant; there's no way they'll get caught short of respirators. Add to that their general intelligence.

  10. #110
    Viejo del Foro el duende grande's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    Taiwan, next to red china, 25 million population, 2 million reds visit per year, --under 300 cases with 2 deaths.

    Competence is good s***! They used standard practices, had "leaders" on board, and got it done. This is not rocket science.

    Gotta watch the presidents of Mexico, Brazil, and Nicaragua. View it as a living experiment, a petri dish the size of a nation.

    US has bungled this from the beginning. If Trump can't pull a rabbit out of his hat by Easter he will probably lose the election. But he is the type who lands on his feet, so let's see.

    "Support mental health or I'll break your head"

    ...with a 6 foot stick and mask and gloves....


  11. #111
    House SOB Little Corn Tom's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    This is a serious reply....How has Trump "bungled" this?
    Life's different here ... It's a whole 'nother pace.

  12. #112
    TRN Science officer bill_bly_ca's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    Quote Originally Posted by Little Corn Tom View Post
    This is a serious reply....How has Trump "bungled" this?
    I think the only real line to be drawn was the dismissal of the 20 person pandemic team without replacement soon after his inauguration. That unfortunately led to a delayed response to marshal the troops when the scope became blindly obvious rather than suitability obvious (Something a pandemic team does) - Pundents fumble over numbers of 3 week to 4 weeks delay in cohesive plan(s) <shrug> who knows.
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  13. #113
    House SOB Little Corn Tom's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    Quote Originally Posted by bill_bly_ca View Post
    I think the only real line to be drawn was the dismissal of the 20 person pandemic team without replacement soon after his inauguration. That unfortunately led to a delayed response to marshal the troops when the scope became blindly obvious rather than suitability obvious (Something a pandemic team does) - Pundents fumble over numbers of 3 week to 4 weeks delay in cohesive plan(s) <shrug> who knows.
    Not true......https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...cs-eliminated/
    Life's different here ... It's a whole 'nother pace.

  14. #114
    TRN Science officer bill_bly_ca's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    That one is behind a pay wall - Is it consistent with this Reuters Take?

    https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-f...-idUSKBN21C32M
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    Dude !!!.... Its a Canal !!! Can you Dig it ??

  15. #115
    Viejo del Foro el duende grande's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    Did not say Trump bungled it, the US bungled it. Trump is on top, so he will get blamed. I understand his style, he blows smoke to reassure people while doing the right things behind the scenes. Annoying and not my approach, but he is pres and I am diddly-squat.

    But net net, the public health agencies a/o the political class bungled it. Since most public health is state or locally based, there are a lot of players--and a lot of politicians they have to ask for money/permission.
    Again, Taiwan, Singapore, S. Korea used standard methods and reeled it in.

    Anyway, I was tired of reading between the lines of statistical mumbo jumbo and dug up a deaths per million population chart. Whole different outlook than the total cases/total deaths charts. Look where the US is on this chart!

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/...n-inhabitants/

    "Support mental health or I'll break your head"

    ...with a 6 foot stick and mask and gloves....


  16. #116
    House SOB Little Corn Tom's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    Good info but I suspect that many of the countries reporting are simply lying.

    But what do you mean "standard methods"?

    Also just saw that it appears that there is a "resurgence" in China, suggesting that they have not conquered it and a second wave may hit.....what a mess.
    Last edited by Little Corn Tom; 03-27-2020 at 06:41 PM.
    Life's different here ... It's a whole 'nother pace.

  17. #117
    Viejo del Foro el duende grande's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    It is impossible to have accurate data on an epidemic while it is in process. Other than the lying, data gets lost, delayed, definitions can be different, etc. The methods used by the 3 countries above were track, test, quarantine, and investigate contacts of the patients. The biology of science may be very complex, but the workflow is pretty simple. It is more like detective work than science. That's why I don't worry that Trump fired some high level bureaucrats early in his administration. It only takes one bureaucrat to say "start the testing".

    It is very likely that there will be a second wave and mutations. I'm looking a laying low for 6 months. I hope it is less but it could be more. And I think the recession started the day they shut down Hubei province.

    "Support mental health or I'll break your head"

    ...with a 6 foot stick and mask and gloves....


  18. #118
    TRN Science officer bill_bly_ca's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    Quote Originally Posted by el duende grande View Post
    It is impossible to have accurate data on an epidemic while it is in process. Other than the lying, data gets lost, delayed, definitions can be different, etc.
    Very much so - Some countries log every person who says they are sick, others only on tests and, I have read, China only recorded hospital admissions which would make the real number massive...
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  19. #119
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    That's why I looked up the deaths per million population. I gives a whole different picture than total total cases or total deaths. Another slicky is "deaths per confirmed cases". A provisional calculation at best because some of those confirmed cases are currently in the hospital but will die later and new cases keep rolling in.
    Quote Originally Posted by bill_bly_ca View Post
    Well Italy IS 10% - John Hopkins numbers - So not sure what your threshold in for "bad"

    The odd thing is why China is so much lower (4%)

    Spain is looking more like Italy - Netherlands and Germany is way way down ...

    It will be fascinating once things calm down what those factors were (for the wild death fluctuations)

    "Support mental health or I'll break your head"

    ...with a 6 foot stick and mask and gloves....


  20. #120
    Viejo del Foro el duende grande's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    2 new, 1 recovering, 1 dead, several suspected.
    http://www.radiolavozdelnorte.com/20...tro-casos.html

    "Support mental health or I'll break your head"

    ...with a 6 foot stick and mask and gloves....


  21. #121
    Dog Whisperer cookshow's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    Costa Rica has over 200 cases, imagine here. I read only few hundred tests here, so number may stay low....Is going to explode....
    ‎"You know what you say when people tell you you can't do something? Fool, shut your mouth up!"
    Ernie K Doe

  22. #122
    Viejo del Foro Daddy-YO's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    Quote Originally Posted by cookshow View Post
    Costa Rica has over 200 cases, ....
    CR can be very proud of how they're handling this situation. Of their 263 cases, 9 are in the hospital, only 5 are in intensive care. Thus far only 2 have died; they were 'elderly'. 3 have recovered. The country is still “several weeks” from reaching its peak of coronavirus cases." TicoTimes.net So I may run out of chances to extend or renew my tourist visa and just have to pay the 50 cords/day upon exiting this Covid-19 Love fest.

    Bill said he hit a pay wall trying to view LCT's WaPo link, so I summarize:
    Fact Checker Analysis Was the White House office for global pandemics eliminated?
    3/20/20 WaPo: It got shuffled in a bureaucratic reorganization, not eliminated
    The office — as set up by Obama — was folded into another office. Thus, one could claim the office was eliminated. But the staff slots did not disappear and at least initially the key mission of the team remained a priority. So one can also claim nothing changed and thus Biden’s criticism is overstated.
    WaPo has long been a Dem organ. Now, owned by Bezos (king of US elites), who has locked horns with Trump, it could not let it go there.
    The question that cannot be answered is whether a separate directorate would have had more clout to bring the issue immediately to the president’s attention. One example: China refused to let American experts into Wuhan — a discussion kept at the agency level. But early presidential pressure might have swayed Beijing to cooperate. For that reason, we will leave this unrated.
    Politics in America is little more than public masturbation.

  23. #123
    Viejo del Foro Daddy-YO's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    "Call it the CCP virus, because that's what it is," says Steve Bannon. "The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is a criminal organization, the single biggest threat to humankind." They need to own up to what happened at their T4 lab in Wuhan. "The USA should lock down the entire country immediately, and quarantine NYC; let the economy float on the stimulus pkg." "Taiwan is also using the malaria drug." "The confrontation with the CCP is just beginning."
    Watch the second half of this interview,

  24. #124
    Dog Whisperer cookshow's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    Went into town yesterday, getting off bus on Pan Am all looked normal, first block off Pan Am and saw, not so normal, lots of places shuttered, those that were open had doors blocked so you could not enter, were selling through the doors. Few places open as usual, a little bakery and baking supply place I like to visit was wide open, I went in and girl recognized me, bought few small bottles of flavoring, a little over a buck, but they were pleasant as always, asked what I had been baking.

    On towards Pali, closer I got more worried I became about what I would find, this is a low level Pali (CRAP), at xmas and for about a month after the place was wiped clean. Went in all was normal, was spray bottle at door to sanitize, was average busy, and fully stocked, full shelf of liquid soap and Toilet Paper stock was full and adding more, their veggie bins were full, meat counter was full, refrigerated case was full, was actually better stocked than usual. No panic buying but people buying up fair amounts of staples

    Was not anything in town that was really needed but I like to be prepared and the things I bought will not spoil so no waste.

    From what I saw yesterday I would say in a week there may be no shortage of goods, but be a shortage of places to buy.

    A little eatery next to Pali that I usually hit when in town was open and let me store my stuff there as I gathered things, by time I left he had people at a few tables.

    Drug stores all seemed pretty well stocked, if you can find alcohol gel the price will make you sicker than the virus.

    Some people with masks on, some with bandanas on, lot of hand sanitizer in use, overall seemed pretty conscious.

    Was my big adventure, will not need to go back for a long while.
    ‎"You know what you say when people tell you you can't do something? Fool, shut your mouth up!"
    Ernie K Doe

  25. #125
    Para aquí para acá Jonh's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    Nearly 10% of Italy’s population are “migrants.” We can’t generalize on the culture of the region any more, even in jest.

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