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Thread: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

  1. #176
    Dog Whisperer cookshow's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    Quote Originally Posted by Jonh View Post
    Rate of case increase isn't equivalent to the rate of test increase. The number of cases will never be known, only the number of positive tests. And tests are dependent on production, administering, and getting people to take them.
    AND. no tests here.....................
    ‎"You know what you say when people tell you you can't do something? Fool, shut your mouth up!"
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    Ignorance is bliss!

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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    a town in Italy tested everybody and found that few had the bug, but among those that did 1/2 were asymptomatic. These numbers will vary from place to place, but for a rough estimate if you divide "dead" by "Known cases" + "estimated asymptomatic cases" you will get a good number for a death rate. It will be higher than the flu but much less than SARS, etc. It will be about half of "dead" divided by "known cases".
    The kicker, of course, is how do you crunch the numbers for "dead" to see how many died normally from the virus and how many died from lack of treatment.

    Anyway, went on an expedition to the pueblucho today. Traffic moderately heavy. Guard a bank not only squirting your hands, but zapping your forehead with a temperature gun. Sucked some cords out of the ATM and ran. Farmacia had yellow tape to keep customers 1 m from their glass case. Hardware store had front taped off so customers only had 1 M inside the store to get out of the sun.
    So much clean around the house lately that I can't stand it!

    A relative in L. A. keeps saying that everybody there had it in dec-Jan. Given the number of direct flights from The Plague Republic of China that land there he may be right? Maybe it just merged in with the flu season and the local health department was as inept as the CDC.

    "Support mental health or I'll break your head"

    ...with a 6 foot stick and mask and gloves....


  4. #179
    Viejo del Foro Daddy-YO's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    Quote Originally Posted by el duende grande View Post
    a town in Italy tested everybody and found that few had the bug, but among those that did 1/2 were asymptomatic.
    A relative in L. A. keeps saying that everybody there had it in Dec-Jan.
    The story of Vo, Italy, is fascinating. Tied to the LA comment you gotta wonder: how many that were exposed to the virus were never infected, beyond asymptomatic, their bodies were simply not receptive to the virus, they never got that flu. They'd test negative. They were naturally immune. We live in a soup of viruses and bacteria, in air, on soil and carried by winds around the world.
    "Every day, more than 800 million viruses are deposited per square meter," explained University of British Columbia virologist Curtis Suttle... Newsweek, 2/7/18
    The first Italian to die of Covid-19 on Feb 21 lived in Vo. Two days later the town was placed under lockdown, no one in or out except essentials. On Feb 29 they tested everybody and were shocked that 3% were positive. They tried to alarm the rest of Italy but no one listened. The researchers decided against sending patients to hospital to prevent them spreading the disease there. They isolated those who tested positive and tested all again Mar 7. Result: only 1% positive. They continued, testing all on Mar 23: no new infections. One complaint caught my attention: "When they tested the whole town, they crowded lots of people, no safety distance was respected."

    Quote Originally Posted by el duende grande View Post
    The kicker, of course, is how do you crunch the numbers for "dead" to see how many died normally from the virus and how many died from lack of treatment.
    "Lies, damn lies and statistics" The end to breaking down analyses to all factors that contribute to how/why they died is individual cases. Just for those who got care, there's what hospital, by what head doctor, which head nurse, at what time of day, what meds was the patient already on, how was his heart/lungs, &c., &c. The stats for heart failure, cancer deaths, drug overdoses, &c., don't always tell you where, tho insurance companies would like it to have been in one of their hospitals.

  5. #180
    Viejo del Foro el duende grande's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    Asymptomatic means they had the disease but no known symptoms. they may have had the sniffles but thot it was allergies. There are 2 tests, do you have it now or do you have antibodies that prove you had it and recovered. The second test is important because it implies you have some degree of immunity which would imply you can work, work with sick wuflu patients, etc.

    Tests aren't perfect. In Dec. I had routine blood work done and one test said I had had hep A last year. News to me. Maybe the test was wrong, maybe I had it asymptomatically. Maybe I had it the same time I had amoebas and it didn't show up on the tests. Or many the hep A vaccine I had years ago triggered a false positive on the test. Who knows, but mental note that tho not as bad as the Plague Republic of China, Nic is a pest hole, too.

    I have upped my spray schedule for zancudos. Not a good year to get 2 diseases at the same time.

    "Support mental health or I'll break your head"

    ...with a 6 foot stick and mask and gloves....


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    TRN Science officer bill_bly_ca's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    You can draw some pretty sinister lines from the dynamic duo's tact (If it is still a duo indeed)

    1) INSS is bleeding too much money to pensioners.
    2) The coffers are running dry

    If C-19 were suddenly be of a magnitude where the world took notice.

    A) The INSS payout decreases
    B) External money will flow in to help.

    I know the thought is repulsive, but just say'n
    ==================================================
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  7. #182

    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    I know the thought is repulsive, but just say'n


    Not repulsive to the commies,, just business as usual. Anyway, you are hearing a bit of that here too.

    At Trump's presser yesterday someone,, maybe the admiral, or Dr Birx, said that antibody tests will be available in quantity at end of month. A finger prick,, drop of blood on a test strip, and you've either had it and can go back to work with confidence, or you didn't. With that information in hand,, a massive blood plasma donation from the recovered infectees could protect a significant part of the uninfected population. It's what they did for measles and polio before there were vaccines available prior to the onslaught of the 1918 Influenza.

    I'm not a conspiracy nut, but there is clearly a lot that they are not telling us. In terms of who is getting infected, vs who is dying.

    The Pressers are interesting. Trump rambles, dissembles,, but is as close to presidential as he has ever been. If that weren't the case, CNN and MSCBC would be gleefully broadcasting the daily news conference, instead of just doing the Gotcha questions from the press.



    Can the Ortega family hide out until there is a vaccine or a definitive treatment ? Probably. The Cubans could manufacture the serum. Hell, Joe Biden could buy a $600 centrifuge on EBAY and manufacture it in his basement between naps.

    Maybe that's the plan for the Great Bolivar Vaccine factory the Russians built for Nicaragua. They are going to need enough sick people first to protect the rest of the population. They found during the last Ebola outbreak that the serum indeed did protect a person,, but also that the antibodies got less and less effective as the donor was repeatedly "milked"

    I understand that the Russian facility is currently making face cream for the Chamuka.



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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    When there are a large number of hospitals with empty beds and empty waiting rooms, while people are being busted for dressing as medical workers and putting up YouTube videos crying about how horrible things are while glancing to the side to read the cue cards, you know there's something "not quite right" here. We may look back on it as "The Pandemic that Refused to Cooperate."

  9. #184
    Viejo del Foro Daddy-YO's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    Herd Immunity = the only way this pandemic ends
    So say epidemiologists at Harvard & Boston College. They have opened the door for Trump’s back-to-work plans. Ironically they found that the better we are at social distancing this spring, the worse the subsequent spike becomes in Oct.
    *Because COVID-19 presents with mild or no symptoms at all in some large, but as yet unknown, percentage of the population, our current case counts are low by an entire degree of magnitude, or maybe more.
    *The epidemiologists believe that this virus won’t begin to disappear until a far higher percentage of the population — at least 60 percent — develops immunity. If that doesn’t happen with a vaccine, it has to happen through exposure.
    *Unless we plan on spending the year or more it’ll take to widely distribute a vaccine sequestered in our homes without respite, we will need to immunize the state’s population the hard way. - Boston Globe, 4/11/20, by Jeff Howe
    Controlled exposure, done in a way that minimizes harm, is the way forward.

    If a disease can’t be contained we must collectively develop immunity to it. And critical to any future policy will be vastly improved surveillance of who had contact with someone found to be infected; so Apple &/or Google better get their asses in gear, or we check with the Germans.

    Herd immunity isn’t merely a possible strategy. In the long run it’s the only strategy.
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...112v1.full.pdf

  10. #185

    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    Quote Originally Posted by Daddy-YO View Post
    Herd Immunity = the only way this pandemic ends
    So say epidemiologists at Harvard & Boston College. They have opened the door for Trump’s back-to-work plans. Ironically they found that the better we are at social distancing this spring, the worse the subsequent spike becomes in Oct.

    Controlled exposure, done in a way that minimizes harm, is the way forward.

    If a disease can’t be contained we must collectively develop immunity to it. And critical to any future policy will be vastly improved surveillance of who had contact with someone found to be infected; so Apple &/or Google better get their asses in gear, or we check with the Germans.

    Herd immunity isn’t merely a possible strategy. In the long run it’s the only strategy.
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...112v1.full.pdf
    Yes. We need to expose those who are most likely to be able to survive it and to build up an immunity. The only people we should be protecting are those who would be likely to succumb to it.
    Soy el chele mono.

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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    Except so far they don't even know if there is immunity or for how long. In a society that has not even got testing up to speed we are running blind. The public will be the great guinea pig in the back-to-work scheme of things. For better or worse, in the US the governors and majors have a lot of control so any shoot from the hip approach from Trump may not happen, at least not nationally. Scary stuff.
    The experience in Singapore is that the minute you let up your guard it comes back in spades.

    More bad news from Wuhan and Holland--the 6 ft distancing is pie in the sky. It probably helps if everybody is wearing masks and glasses, but the real number is 13 feet, and much more if anyone is shouting, singing, walking or running.

    "Support mental health or I'll break your head"

    ...with a 6 foot stick and mask and gloves....


  12. #187

    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    Quote Originally Posted by el duende grande View Post
    Except so far they don't even know if there is immunity or for how long. In a society that has not even got testing up to speed we are running blind. The public will be the great guinea pig in the back-to-work scheme of things. For better or worse, in the US the governors and majors have a lot of control so any shoot from the hip approach from Trump may not happen, at least not nationally. Scary stuff.
    The experience in Singapore is that the minute you let up your guard it comes back in spades.

    More bad news from Wuhan and Holland--the 6 ft distancing is pie in the sky. It probably helps if everybody is wearing masks and glasses, but the real number is 13 feet, and much more if anyone is shouting, singing, walking or running.
    This variety of virus cannot be contained. It is pointless to try. We've know this truth for a long time. It's why we develop flu shots--because we understand that we can't stop it from spreading to practically everyone every year. No expert is suggesting that it can be contained; only news organizations are implying that it can be. The rhetoric they're using is "to flatten the curve," because it's about managing the impact of the hospitals and available resources, not about containment. We're all going to get this thing eventually (or a cousin of it next season or the one after that) unless we make the choice to live in a plastic bubble.
    Soy el chele mono.

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    TRN Science officer bill_bly_ca's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    Quote Originally Posted by drlemcor View Post
    The rhetoric they're using is "to flatten the curve," because it's about managing the impact of the hospitals and available resources, not about containment. We're all going to get this thing eventually (or a cousin of it next season or the one after that) unless we make the choice to live in a plastic bubble.
    This also why there is the mad rush for ventilators. Those ventilators are not only for "this" wave but for the 2nd a 3rd over the next 18 to 24 months as we all eventually get it.
    ==================================================
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    Different bugs are different. Look at the regular flu--Every year they develop a vaccine for the 2 or 3 strains they think will be most common, and then they start over for the next year. And look at dengue-good news you get immunity, but bad news there are 3 more strains out there for which you have no immunity--and the second run can be more deadly than the first.

    I became a believer in bugs a few years ago when I contracted a no-name mosquito borne disease here. I live a relatively isolated life and avoid zancudos but I was amazed at how many people in Esteli got this disease so quickly.

    Politicians, not just the news, like to talk about the wonder vaccine. It fits into the American quick fix mentality. You do nothing and "somebody else" invents a vaccine. Well, we did nothing for 3 months and so here we are.

    "Support mental health or I'll break your head"

    ...with a 6 foot stick and mask and gloves....


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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    Not to mention the “there’s a pill for that” Big Pharma mentality.

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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    Quote Originally Posted by bill_bly_ca View Post
    This also why there is the mad rush for ventilators.
    For someone seriously ill with CoV-19, being put on a ventilator is tantamount to a death sentence.
    The experience so far with COVID-19 is that the majority of patients put on ventilators don't survive.
    Of the 22 who eventually required mechanical ventilation, 19 (86%) died. Another early study reported 31 of 32 (97%) mechanically ventilated patients died.
    ____ Probably the best published information we have so far is from the Intensive Care National Audit and Research Center in the UK. Of the 98 patients who received advanced respiratory support—defined as invasive ventilation, BPAP or CPAP via endotracheal tube, or tracheostomy, or extracorporeal respiratory support—66% died.
    https://www.physiciansweekly.com/mor...n-ventilators/
    "With ventilators running out, doctors say the machines are overused for Covid-19" headline on StatNews.com, 4/8/20

  17. #192

    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    Quote Originally Posted by el duende grande View Post
    Different bugs are different. Look at the regular flu--Every year they develop a vaccine for the 2 or 3 strains they think will be most common, and then they start over for the next year. And look at dengue-good news you get immunity, but bad news there are 3 more strains out there for which you have no immunity--and the second run can be more deadly than the first.

    I became a believer in bugs a few years ago when I contracted a no-name mosquito borne disease here. I live a relatively isolated life and avoid zancudos but I was amazed at how many people in Esteli got this disease so quickly.

    Politicians, not just the news, like to talk about the wonder vaccine. It fits into the American quick fix mentality. You do nothing and "somebody else" invents a vaccine. Well, we did nothing for 3 months and so here we are.
    I didn't mean to imply that the vaccines for the flu are a cure. What they are is a weakened form of the virus that allows people to develop their own natural immunity to the weakened form of the virus easier. With or without the vaccines, the only real fix for a virus is herd immunity. We (as a species) earn our survival to these viruses at the cost of blood and lives. This isn't pretty, or nice, but it's a fact of nature.

    I got a mosquito born illness when I was living in Ciudad Sandino back in 1998. At the time, the only thing that they could test for in the hospital that I went to in Managua was Malaria. I tested negative for Malaria, and so based on my symptoms, they told me that I must have Dengue. I suppose I could have had any number of rare tropical viruses. I don't remember about three days during the worst of it. What I remember is bleeding out of both ends and not being able to keep anything down except small amount of 7-UP. They told me the same things about Dengue--that if I get it a second time, it will likely be fatal. I'm not sure (to this day) if that is based on any evidence, but I know that it's a common belief.
    Soy el chele mono.

  18. #193

    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    Quote Originally Posted by drlemcor View Post
    Yes. We need to expose those who are most likely to be able to survive it and to build up an immunity. The only people we should be protecting are those who would be likely to succumb to it.



    I agree, but suck a variety of outcomes. Some can be explained by the demographic: How many of the NYC deaths are HIV positive intravenous drug users ?

    But,, then there is this:

    https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/928530



    We've used the convalescent serum in the past,, a lot. Measles, polio, before we had vaccines. Widespread use would blunt future waves.


    I still struggle to understand New York vs California: 9,000 vs 600 And so much travel between California and China. Did California enjoy a much milder virus early on? Another difference: with a couple of major exceptions,, the SF Bay area and LA, California is autocentric. No car, no go most places.

    Will the NY subway turn out to be the major vector in NYC? Remember, as late as March 14 DeBlasio was telling everyone that the virus is not transmitted via air,, the subway is safe.

    https://www.msnbc.com/am-joy/watch/m...ty-80666693737

    Today is the 12th of April. There will be in excess of 10,000 deaths on the 14th of April,, a month later.

  19. #194
    Viejo del Foro Daddy-YO's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    Quote Originally Posted by KeyWestPirate View Post
    I was heartened to read in the article,
    While in the MICU, Singh was treated with azithromycin and hydroxychloroquine — standard at MGH for critically ill COVID-19 patients —
    He pulled thru.

    We have different faces, fingerprints and naturally, different immune systems. Plus they evolve during our lifetimes to strengthen or weaken depending what they’ve had to deal with. Most encouraging are immunological resistance to CoV-19 by those who have had RBG vaccine. I’m anxious to learn how those US healthcare workers who got the vaccine fare.

    CA vs-NY The subway was very likely a contagion factor in NYC. As was air pollution/asthma in the canyon streets of NYC vs wide open LA and windswept, hilly SF. And general CV-heart condition due to dietary differences, mainly the CA fuits&nuts consciousness vs the NYC hot dog street vendors. Plus I’d guess NYer’s are more uptight/nervous than the laid-back CA vibe.

    But why guess? See LATimes, 4/10/20, “California’s coronavirus death toll is way below New York’s. Here’s why”
    https://www.latimes.com/california/s...empty-new-york
    Quick action to close businesses, schools & other institutions and order residents to stay homeBy late Friday, California had reported 598 deaths over two and a half months, fewer than New York experienced in a single day Wednesday, when 799 died from COVID-19. California has averaged just under 45 deaths per day over the last week, with no spike in fatalities.
    Plus this distinctly California touch: Smart-thermometer maker Kinsa Health showed that on April 9 just 0.3% of Los Angeles County residents had fevers compared with an expected 3.2% for that date in prior years. Less social mixing made more healthier.

  20. #195
    Viejo del Foro el duende grande's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    Yes, being asleep at the switch like New York has its disadvantages.
    Total death rate in Detroit is down for the month. People don't seem to play well with each other, better off locked up at home. Car wrecks and crime down.
    And another thot, about the middle class entitlement mentality. People pumped up to think they will get a guaranteed profit on the stock market. Ignorant speculators with "dollar cost averaging", "invest for the long term", "I have to play the market to avoid taxes". The stupid generation. Let's kill Grandma to bump up the market!

  21. #196
    TRN Science officer bill_bly_ca's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    Reports coming out of Korea of some relapses. About 91.

    But there are not sure if it is wayning virus - a resurgance of the original infection - False positive on the first infection or an actual new infection.

    Like the Blondie song .

    ==================================================
    Dude !!!.... Its a Canal !!! Can you Dig it ??

  22. #197

    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    The antibody tests SHOULD be more reliable, faster, cheaper, and much easier to administer.

    COPA is flying to Managua first week of May. Nicaragua is going to be a 30 day petri dish,, or longer as the Presta Misters take the virus to the far corners of the country. A fascinating experiment, someone should document it.

    Trump's decision he's making today,,,, the economy or Aunt Lulu,,, will drive his re-election in November. Then again,,, who knows if it will make any difference at all.

    Sleepy Joe is already cratering. I'm waiting for the cartoon showing him sniffing his fingers ...

    It's going to be an amusing few months,,

    God,, is this a great country to live in,, or what?

  23. #198
    Dog Whisperer cookshow's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    COPA will not be flying anywhere until Panama opens it's borders, same with Avianca through El Sal, would have to be a direct flight into MGA from States. Spirit is saying June 15 or some such.
    ‎"You know what you say when people tell you you can't do something? Fool, shut your mouth up!"
    Ernie K Doe

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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    The threat is at the Dem Convention. Hopes and prayers they run a losing slate, but if they wake up at the last minute and nominate a good slate? Trump was heading for the best president since TR. Now his legacy may be that he was a covid-denier. Remember George Custer. A great general till he lost one little battle.
    History is not over.

    "Support mental health or I'll break your head"

    ...with a 6 foot stick and mask and gloves....


  25. #200
    House SOB Little Corn Tom's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    The US population is about 300,000,000.
    In a "normal" year, about 2,300,000 die from old age, accidents and disease or .766% of the population.
    It looks like the Corona virus deaths will total about 60,000.
    So, this years death count should be 2,360,000 or about .788% of the population.
    So the number of total deaths has increased by .02 %.....that is .02 per cent! A statistical blip!
    Put people back to work, make them wear masks, if they die pay their families a million bucks.....cheaper than this fiasco.
    I am all for changing social behavior until this is over and vaccines are in place, but we are shooting ourselves in the foot.
    I am afraid that we are letting sensational headline oriented news organizations and pussy politicians rule our lives.
    If my math or logic is wrong, please advise.
    Life's different here ... It's a whole 'nother pace.

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