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Thread: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

  1. #201
    TRN Science officer bill_bly_ca's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    Quote Originally Posted by Little Corn Tom View Post
    It looks like the Corona virus deaths will total about 60,000.
    But it is not done yet - So the number will not be known for an entire year - Numbers are bantered around everywhere, but if the 60,000 remains on track for the remainder of April start may (already at 23,000) and then lets say it fades to 20 of 30 K a month after that - well that would be close to a million or 30% increase of deaths.

    More reason to buy funeral home stocks though I guess.



    You all have to keep in mind the only reason the large amount of us over 50 having is this debate is because the majority did not die in their 50's like in the 1920' and before.
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  2. #202

    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    Yes, like Sweden. Isolate the vulnerable. Chile did some of this too. The UK contemplated it, but lost the nerve.

    But, it was the old draining the swamp while the alligators bit your butt scenario.
    There is a huge political component to this as well. If you get run over by a bus in NYC and just happen to have Covid19, well,, guess what you die of ? Sleepy Joe is out there sniffing his fingers,, just waiting for a mis step by Trump. It's the only thing that is going to get him elected.

    The antibody testing will be key,, not only to know the percentage infected, but to get their story :
    I didn't even know I had it" "Thought I had the flu" "What Corona Virus?"

    NYC is running out of HIV positive intravenous drug users, so those deaths will start falling off.

    It's only a coupe of weeks until May 1.

  3. #203
    House SOB Little Corn Tom's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    Quote Originally Posted by bill_bly_ca View Post
    But it is not done yet - So the number will not be known for an entire year - Numbers are bantered around everywhere, but if the 60,000 remains on track for the remainder of April start may (already at 23,000) and then lets say it fades to 20 of 30 K a month after that - well that would be close to a million or 30% increase of deaths.

    More reason to buy funeral home stocks though I guess.



    You all have to keep in mind the only reason the large amount of us over 50 having is this debate is because the majority did not die in their 50's like in the 1920' and before.

    I do not know what you are talking about....I am referring only to the United States of America. The statistics are here....https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
    Life's different here ... It's a whole 'nother pace.

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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    And the rest of the story.. China, Italy, and Spain were on the edge of a recession when this started. The US was in a bubble, a Reaganomics bubble where you pump up the economy temporarily at the price of raising debt to levels where it can never be paid. Plus $2T now and more to come. Momma was right, I should a been a banker. With a gold lapel pin that said "Too big to fail".

    Singapore's experience is that if you let up at all (they did that by accident by allowing quarantined people to let their maids work) it will go apeshit on you. Sweden's death rate is creeping up.

    So far, no definitive knowledge of if/how long survivors have immunity.

    Other bad news, the 6 foot limit is a convenient compromise. Wuham and later Dutch research says the magic number is 13 feet, and if the person is doing anything it goes much higher, with jogging being the worse.

    And last but not least, Mr. Cuomo, when you peak or level out it is not over yet. The chance of overloading the hospitals goes down but the patients are still there. Spain is carefully easing up on house arrest but in stages.

    "Support mental health or I'll break your head"

    ...with a 6 foot stick and mask and gloves....


  5. #205
    TRN Science officer bill_bly_ca's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    Quote Originally Posted by Little Corn Tom View Post
    I do not know what you are talking about....I am referring only to the United States of America. The statistics are here....https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
    Correct

    US deaths 23,000 - But if you look at the bottom right corner - New cases per day - it is constant even with all of the measures. - This may imply 60,000 up to the beginning of May

    You will see the new cases per day is remaining constant - and current deaths per day = 1,380

    Today to May 1 = 24,000 additional deaths for approximately 49,000 to May 1 if deaths per day remain constant.

    I typically refer to the Hopkins counter as it shows new cases per day. Look to the bottom right of this chart. I have read that the Hopkins data is one of the sources for the world counter. The new cases per day seem to be out of line though at 23,000 for world counter and 29,000 for Hopkins just yesterday .

    Anyways there is little evidence that a return to normal would not keep those daily numbers that low.
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    If you will refer to the site that I posted, you will see that the new cases in the US is decreasing and following the usual and predicted bell curve.
    Life's different here ... It's a whole 'nother pace.

  7. #207
    TRN Science officer bill_bly_ca's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    Quote Originally Posted by Little Corn Tom View Post
    If you will refer to the site that I posted, you will see that the new cases in the US is decreasing and following the usual and predicted bell curve.
    Not sure what to say - The red line is 26 ish thousand a day for the past 8 or so days - US daily declared new case daily increase.
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    Again...referencing the site that I listed....the number of cases has been diminishing since April 4 and the number of deaths diminishing since around April 7/11.

    Again, the site is https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
    Life's different here ... It's a whole 'nother pace.

  9. #209
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    Quote Originally Posted by Little Corn Tom View Post
    Again...referencing the site that I listed....the number of cases has been diminishing since April 4 and the number of deaths diminishing since around April 7/11.

    Again, the site is https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
    Here is the worldometers data for new cases per day and deaths per day

    What Am I missing.
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    House SOB Little Corn Tom's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    Apparently, the fact that it appears that both graphs have peaked and are diminishing.

    Maybe not....time will tell I guess.

    Is the glass half full or half empty?
    Life's different here ... It's a whole 'nother pace.

  11. #211
    TRN Science officer bill_bly_ca's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    Our dudes in white coats say a sustained 10% day over day decrease spanning more than 10 days is "contained"

    We are not there.. Not even close.



    There is too much to take in up here to know what your white coated fellows in the US say..
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    House SOB Little Corn Tom's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    Yeah, it is a lot to take in.
    Last edited by Little Corn Tom; 04-13-2020 at 07:32 PM.
    Life's different here ... It's a whole 'nother pace.

  13. #213
    Para aquí para acá Jonh's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    Keep in mind the fine distinction between “died with Corona” and “died of Corona.” Actual causes of death are very hard to pin down scientifically. So if you happened to test positive upon death, they tend to declare you a Corona death. The “underlying conditions” that were creeping up on you, which would likely have killed you anyway, suddenly become uninteresting to whoever fills out the death certificate.

  14. #214
    TRN Science officer bill_bly_ca's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    Quote Originally Posted by Jonh View Post
    Keep in mind the fine distinction between “died with Corona” and “died of Corona.” Actual causes of death are very hard to pin down scientifically. So if you happened to test positive upon death, they tend to declare you a Corona death. The “underlying conditions” that were creeping up on you, which would likely have killed you anyway, suddenly become uninteresting to whoever fills out the death certificate.
    Sure - But rarely have the military (Italy) to remove the dead or digging a trench on an Island (NYC) to bury the dead is an obvious anomaly

    Necessity or theater is what the debate here and on da faze book boils down too..

    The Chinese show no new cases for over 3 weeks <cough> bullshit <cough>
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  15. #215

    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    Quote Originally Posted by Jonh View Post
    Keep in mind the fine distinction between “died with Corona” and “died of Corona.” Actual causes of death are very hard to pin down scientifically. So if you happened to test positive upon death, they tend to declare you a Corona death. The “underlying conditions” that were creeping up on you, which would likely have killed you anyway, suddenly become uninteresting to whoever fills out the death certificate.
    In some hospitals, they don't even have to test positive for Corona upon death in order to be counted as a Corona death. They're counting everyone who died with similar symptoms without even bothering to test. The fact that the symptoms are broad and vary between patients doesn't seem to be a problem. I have no doubt that some of these deaths could have been due to Corona, but it bothers me that the usual rules for verifying the cause of death are being ignored for some reason.
    Soy el chele mono.

  16. #216
    Viejo del Foro el duende grande's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    As I see it it is a moving target. The disease has about a 3 month run in each city where it surfaces. So Washington State should be coming out of it but New York has a couple more months, if they don't screw anything up. Michigan and LA will follow NY by a while and who knows where else.

    From what I gather, no local health departments have the staff and materials to test , confine and track all contacts so places like my home county with 18 cases will probably spin out of control for lack of follow up. What a waste, they could have nipped it in the bud like Taiwan.

    PS- today I did a pharmacy run to one of the bigger farmacias in town. They have new plexiglass along almost all of the counter, but the holes are so small you cannot hear anybody so you go to the end of the counter which is open and shout at the muchacha there while rubbing elbows with the 2 muchachos who were having a long discussion with her without masks. It took 2 muchachas 3 tries to write down my wife's phone number. I think one or both are dyslexic. Most of the time 1/2 of the people behind the counter had their masks down around their necks. No gel at the door like at La Colonia, maybe people going to farmacias are a healthier bunch?
    Gunna be a long year.

    "Support mental health or I'll break your head"

    ...with a 6 foot stick and mask and gloves....


  17. #217
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    Deaths per million population, which I see as a better indicator of what is going on than deaths per country--
    US--72
    Sweden--91
    Canada--21
    Spain--380
    Italy--338
    Taiwan--0.3
    Singapore--2
    Countries like Nic are slow on the timeline, they will catch up. Seems like flights from China and later Spain and Italy were the kiss of death in the beginning. China seems to be not reporting figures.

    "Support mental health or I'll break your head"

    ...with a 6 foot stick and mask and gloves....


  18. #218
    TRN Science officer bill_bly_ca's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    And apparently the Swedes are a good gauge (omitting 2nd and 3rd artifacts) of what a non contained social environment would bring.

    Is Sweden's COVID-19 strategy working?

    COMMENTS
    By Orlando Crowcroft • last updated: 13/04/2020 - 22:26



    People chat and drink in Stockholm, Sweden, Wednesday, April 8, 2020. - Copyright Andres Kudacki/Copyright 2020 The Associated Press. All rights reserved


    In the face of criticism and incredulity from its European neighbours, Sweden has stuck to its guns on resisting a France or Italy-style lockdown of its 10.2 million citizens to avoid the spread of COVID-19.
    The government has advised Swedes to work from home when possible and avoid crowded places like bars and restaurants, but it has stopped short of imposing formal restrictions, urging its citizens to "behave like adults" rather than fining them for leaving their homes without good reason.


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  19. #219
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    Quote Originally Posted by drlemcor View Post
    In some hospitals, they don't even have to test positive for Corona upon death in order to be counted as a Corona death. They're counting everyone who died with similar symptoms without even bothering to test. The fact that the symptoms are broad and vary between patients doesn't seem to be a problem. I have no doubt that some of these deaths could have been due to Corona, but it bothers me that the usual rules for verifying the cause of death are being ignored for some reason.
    I'm learning that this is more the norm for many hospital deaths. They make their best guess at cause of death, then someone writes it on a death certificate, and it's rarely questioned. Plus, they have to make sure the cause of death isn't something they will be sued over for malpractice. Right now, you can say "death by Covid-19" and everyone will say, "Oh, yes; of course, carry on."

  20. #220
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    Austria will begin lifting its coronavirus restrictions today — the first step in a long process.
    Austria will loosen its restrictions piecemeal.

    • Today non-essential stores under 400 square meters will be allowed to open ...also hardware stores and garden centers.
    • On May 1 shops, shopping malls and hairdressers will follow suit.
    • Restaurants and hotels will have to wait until mid-May to reopen
    • no public events can be held until at least late June.
    • Other public health measures, such as requiring people to wear face masks in supermarkets and pharmacies, … and in other shops and public transport.

    The government is now hoping to get ahead of the economic consequences of the pandemic before they grow more dire. - DW,com
    Austria 4/14___Deaths 384 (16 more yesterday) = 43/million population
    ____total tests run 151,796 = 16,854/million
    ____total # cases 14,185 = 1,575/million

    Their
    lockdown began on March 16.
    The country closed everything except supermarkets and medical facilities.

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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    Trump called a national emergency on Mar 13; California orders shelter-in-place Mar 17; NYC declared an epicenter on Mar 20, “NY will essentially be on lockdown this weekend” says NYT, 3/20. "Essentially" bull shit.

    Our disunited states have not functioned as one country in this “national emergency”. Perhaps because it’s too large, or not ‘authoritarian’ enough, as the other large countries of the world. Or its politics are simply too fucking petty.

  22. #222
    Para aquí para acá Jonh's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    The independence of the States is a feature, not a bug, of the Republic.

  23. #223

    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    BREAKING NEWS
    New York City’s coronavirus death toll soared past 10,000 after officials added more than 3,700 people presumed to have died of the virus.
    Tuesday, April 14, 2020 4:22 PM EST
    New York City, already a world epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak, sharply increased its death toll on Tuesday, after officials said they were now including people who had never tested positive for the virus but were presumed to have died from it.


    There must be some money involved here.

    Jeez,, I wish I were in Nicaragua,, I'm wasting so much productive time on this Covid19 nonsense. I could be hanging drywall, painting Krisnia's new house in Estelí,, building another pigpen ,,, anything . . .

    Walking to Harbor Freight everyday is getting old.

  24. #224
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    Someone described the situation is that the US has managers, not leaders. And that goes from the county health department to the CDC, from the mayor's office to the White House.

    "Support mental health or I'll break your head"

    ...with a 6 foot stick and mask and gloves....


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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    Remdesivir is a nucleotide analog, which inserts into viral RNA chains, causing their premature termination. Gilead Sciences in the SF Bay Area makes it. Stat ‘leaked’ results of Phase 3 clinical trials of the antiviral drug at the U of Chicago. Of 113 patients with severe cases of Covid-19 who were treated with daily infusions of remdesivir, most were discharged from the hospital in under a week, two died. (NYTimes) As of April 2020, remdesivir is viewed as the most promising treatment for COVID-19 by Johns Hopkins University. (Wiki)
    Bizarrely, says Forbes, China has just suspended one trial of the drug in a hospital in the outbreak capital of Wuhan and terminated another in Bin Cao Beijing. The stock price dropped. It’s curious how dependent we still are on China for Big Pharma.
    It is possible the Chinese gov’t is worried Remdesivir is too effective and have moved to shut down the trials over fears the US drug could corner the global market. (Forbes)
    A big shake up in the board at Gilead and stock volatility spells out clearly how important this drug is to world capitalism. The elites have ponied up. Lots of money to be made.


    As for the poor man’s cure, I share this letter that got shared to me,
    March 23, 2020 To all medical professionals around the world:My name is Dr. Zev Zelenko and I practice medicine in Monroe, NY. For the last 16 years, I have cared for approximately 75% of the adult population of Kiryas Joel, which is a very close knit community of approximately 35,000 people in which the infection spread rapidly and unchecked prior to the imposition of social distancing.
    As of today my team has tested approximately 200 people from this community for Covid-19, and 65% of the results have been positive. If extrapolated to the entire community, that means more than 20,000 people are infected at the present time. Of this group, I estimate that there are 1500 patients who are in the high-risk category (i.e. >60, immunocompromised, comorbidities, etc).
    Given the urgency of the situation, I developed the following treatment protocol in the pre-hospital setting and have seen only positive results:
    1. Any patient with shortness of breath regardless of age is treated.
    2. Any patient in the high-risk category even with just mild symptoms is treated.
    3. Young, healthy and low risk patients even with symptoms are not treated (unless their circumstances change and they fall into category 1 or 2).
    My out-patient treatment regimen is as follows:
    1. Hydroxychloroquine 200mg twice a day for 5 days
    2. Azithromycin 500mg once a day for 5 days
    3. Zinc sulfate 220mg once a day for 5 days
    The rationale for my treatment plan is as follows. I combined the data available from China and South Korea with the recent study published from France (sites available on request). We know that hydroxychloroquine helps Zinc enter the cell. We know that Zinc slows viral replication within the cell. Regarding the use of azithromycin, I postulate it prevents secondary bacterial infections. These three drugs are well known and usually well tolerated, hence the risk to the patient is low.
    Since last Thursday, my team has treated approximately 350 patients in Kiryas Joel and another 150 patients in other areas of New York with the above regimen. Of this group and the information provided to me by affiliated medical teams, we have had ZERO deaths, ZERO hospitalizations, and ZERO intubations. In addition, I have not heard of any negative side effects other than approximately 10% of patients with temporary nausea and diarrhea.
    In sum, my urgent recommendation is to initiate treatment in the outpatient setting as soon as possible in accordance with the above. Based on my direct experience, it prevents acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), prevents the need for hospitalization and saves lives.
    With much respect, Dr. Zev Zelenko
    cc: President Donald J. Trump; Mr. Mark Meadows, Chief of Staff
    Kiryas Joel, NY, is an enclave of Hasidic Jews near NYC. That village has the highest poverty level in the country mostly because hardly anyone works. The dole in America is pretty sweet when you got a lot of kids and the women cook communally while the men study.
    I never met a Semite I didn't like.

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