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  1. #1
    Viejo del Foro Daddy-YO's Avatar
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    Default Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    The coronavirus epidemic began in China Dec 1, 2019, but it wasn’t until Dec 31 that they alerted WHO of an unusual cluster of pneumonias in Wuhan. Its first death was Jan 9. Now of the 80,824 cases China has reportedly had to deal with, an astonishing 81% have recovered. They reported only 11 new cases yesterday, less than any European nation (USA had 252 new cases yesterday). So, has the pandemic petered itself out in less than 4 months in China or is their medical treatment of cases much better than the West is aware of?

    Their totalitarian quarantine of the Wuhan region (Hubei) was impressive; it began Jan 23. Before the lockdown virus carriers left and traveled worldwide. Hubei province is a small dot in the center of China. How is it that other regions of China itself were not disrupted with similar eruptions of coronavirus cases? There was never a nationwide quarantine that I’m aware of.

    The population of China is 1,439,324,000. Their total number of coronavirus cases is less than one hundredth of a percent of the country’s population. Merkle of Germany said we can expect upwards of ⅔ of the population to become infected, to be coronavirus cases. There are 331,003,000 people in the USA; 2,499 are/were infected (51 have died). Echoing Merkle, the CDC announced its worst case model: 214 million Americans infected or 65% and 1.7 million dead. That’s a rather long way from less than one hundredth of a percent. What gives? Can it simply be the inability of “free” countries to police & quarantine those infected with this plague?

    An opinion in yesterday’s Times by two epidemiologists titled, “They’ve Contained the Coronavirus. Here’s How”, effectively states just that. Police state tactics with humane and liberal quarantining the infected and maintaining a vigilance of those who had had contact with the infected brought the epidemic under control. Taiwan (pop. 23.6 million, 53 cases, 1 died, 20 recovered) officials boarded planes from Wuhan - before WHO was alerted! - to check passengers for symptoms (mainly fever) and if infected isolated them immediately. Western ‘human rights’ really mean the rights most humans have to live in the East.

    India, with its population of 1,380,004,000, reports only 97 cases total, 10 of which have recovered (2 deaths). They have a lot of commerce with China; look at the ICCCI. Why so few cases? Is it that they’re not yet aware? Or could it be that the heat deactivates the virus?

    And Russia, only 59 cases, no deaths, none serious, 8 recovered - that's an 14% recovery rate. While the USA is batting a 2% recovery rate. Sure it's early and stats are raw, but could Russian medicine be that much better? Or is it also simply a matter of better policing and quarantining those infected?

    They say future pandemics are not a matter of if but when. Will only authoritarian government systems survive?

    Costa Rica (pop. 5.0 million, 26 cases, 1 serious, no deaths) is taking an effectively aggressive tact maintaining surveillance of all those who came in contact with those infected, who are isolated. They have kept their borders open.
    Costa Rica is not restricting international arrivals or departures. The U.S. is restricting entry for non-U.S. citizens from some countries, but Costa Rica is currently not on that list.
    Central American leaders agreed 3/12/20 to formulate a regional contingency plan to deal with the new coronavirus pandemic, signed by the leaders of Belize, Costa Rica, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Panama and the Dominican Republic.

  2. #2

    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    We only have two cases in Tucson,, both flown in. Ten for all of Arizona,, not all confirmed. Nevada had none the last I looked. How is that possible? Nevada is a world destination.

    The U of A is here in Tucson,, 25K or more students,, plus all the associated support. Lots of international travel. Spring Break started yesterday. It hasn't been that hot, but it is dry here,, generally. And it gets hot. This year has been unusually wet so far.

    This could get interesting: The economic cost of isolation and containment vs trimming the social security rolls, The Corona virus may become know as the virus that saved Social Security.

    There are obviously going to be trade offs that will not please everyone.

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    Viejo del Foro Daddy-YO's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    Quote Originally Posted by KeyWestPirate View Post
    the virus that saved Social Security.
    Here's a big 'if'. Chose to err on the side of caution.
    Arizona's Director of Health, Dr. Cara Christ, tells ABC15 if the CDC models that show 1% of a population is carrying the virus are accurate, then around 70,000 people in our state would have it.
    https://www.abc15.com/news/region-ph...-to-cdc-models

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    Viejo del Foro el duende grande's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    The real heroes are Taiwan and Singapore. They jumped on it and fixed it. China screwed the pooch the first month and then jumped on it. They are apparently over the hump, but with some fear there will be a resurgence when they lift the quarantines. It may be like hot spots after a forest fire.
    The US maybe gets 4 stars out of 5 for dilly dallying and the pathetically low number of tests actually done. Nic is playing dumb but setting up some resources.
    The opera is not over yet. It will take most of the year to see what happens-- the body count, the economic damage and the long term damage. Some recovered Chinese patients have lung damage.

    As far as Nevada, when I worked there every winter, all winter, we had "casino crud". A virus disease or series of virus diseases that we presumed to have been brought from all over the world to flourish in Vegas. It will be a miracle if southern Nevada comes out of this good.

    "Support mental health or I'll break your head"

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    Viejo del Foro Daddy-YO's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    Quote Originally Posted by el duende grande View Post
    The real heroes are Taiwan and Singapore. They jumped on it and fixed it. China screwed the pooch the first month and then jumped on it.
    China was no slouch. Hubei, where the virus festered for a month before authorities were aware, is less than 2% of the area of China and smack in the middle. How did the Chinese manage to prevent leakage into the other 96% of the population of China? Or is it that they didn’t/couldn’t, but their systems of total surveillance allow spot checks for signs of fever (IR cameras)? Their spy system would certainly tell them if someone from Wuhan was where s/he didn't belong.

    All of this begs the thought: China’s death toll is a pittance, an insignificant fraction of 1.44 billion people, and its ability to ‘contain’ it within such a small central location is a phenomenal demonstration to the world, punctuated by Xi’s visit there a few days ago. Singapore, Taiwan and Hong Kong know all too well just how dangerous the dragon curled up in their midst, sleeping restlessly, is. They’re wary, attuned to nuances of the dragon’s movements, ready to act on a moment’s notice. Their survival depends on it. A designer virus pandemic - one they can control - begun in their midst - the poor, innocent Chinese - is the perfect ploy. Combine that with Russia playing the Saudis to drop the price of oil below what USA shale fracking operation - which have unbalance global energy in our favor - can afford to produce, and you have a two front attack on the great capitalistic systems of the West, USA-GB-Europe. Let us not mistake their intentions: to bring heaven down to Earth, to rule the world ‘properly’, harmoniously.

  6. #6

    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    Quote Originally Posted by Daddy-YO View Post
    Here's a big 'if'. Chose to err on the side of caution.
    https://www.abc15.com/news/region-ph...-to-cdc-models
    She walked that number back immediately. Said that she was under a lot of "stress".

    This is Arizona's prime tourist season, Tucson is filled with fairs and other attractions that they are loath to lose. The hills to the north are peppered with multi-million dollar "second homes" occupied only in winter. If the second wave hits next fall and early winter,, they might lose their iconic Gem Show that fills the town in late January thru mid February. The show only runs two weeks, but the town fills up a full month.

    The Gem Show generates $200 million.

    There have been a LOT of mixed messages.

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    Para aquí para acá Jonh's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    Bottom line, regardless of what the fake news and lying internet says, the rats grab up toilet paper as they leave the sinking ship. If this goes on longer than your typical hurricane news cycle, the thin veneer of civilization is likely to rupture.

    I expect the toilet paper industry to kick production up a notch till demand is met. It’s not like we import it from China, right?

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    Para aquí para acá Jonh's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    “Made in USA from domestic and imported materials,” states our package of Cottonelle. Imported from where? Three guesses.

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    Dog Whisperer cookshow's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    Walmart Nicaragua is rationing sales of TP. https://www.laprensa.com.ni/2020/03/...apel-higienico
    ‎"You know what you say when people tell you you can't do something? Fool, shut your mouth up!"
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  10. #10
    TRN Science officer bill_bly_ca's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    I just canceled our Apr 18 to May 4 visit

    Mostly because of the 14 day self quarantine for foreign travel (assumed to remain in place for the next 2 weeks, and probably longer, at my place of employ) and Rosario's epic fail choice for mandated public gatherings.

    My logic is that Korea was (up until a week ago) a COVID 19 hot spot - With all of the Zona franca contact with Koreans (both owned and managed) the risk is real. My thought is that few if any symptomatic Europeans or North Americans got down there. Koreans (or those who have traveled to Korea) could be the data point no one anticipated.

    So it will take a few weeks to shake out what the cost of those decisions are in human terms.
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  11. #11
    Viejo del Foro el duende grande's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    I think the death of the tourist industry saved our butts and postponed the virus thing here. Every cloud has its silver lining. On the same token, flights out are now a nightmare. Will Panama and others allow transit?
    In wuhan it looks like a 4 month cycle with aggressive treatment, plus unknown number of months for it to wind down.
    Travel bans could be with us for much of the year. I have written off my 2020 vacation. Even travel incountry looks iffy now. Hoping for the best, but we are in a 2-3 month waiting period here right now.

    My vacation plans were either Colombia or Mexico, and if I won the lottery Spain or Taiwan. Dream on...

    "Support mental health or I'll break your head"

    ...with a 6 foot stick and mask and gloves....


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    TRN Science officer bill_bly_ca's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    Quote Originally Posted by el duende grande View Post
    In wuhan it looks like a 4 month cycle with aggressive treatment, plus unknown number of months for it to wind down.
    While Korea appears to have knocked it down in 3 weeks. There were #1 on the hit parade for new cases 12 or so days back - I think it was one Sunday or Saturday.
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  13. #13
    Viejo del Foro el duende grande's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    Taiwan and Singapore knocked it down instantly but the US is too embarrassed to talk about them.
    Quote Originally Posted by bill_bly_ca View Post
    While Korea appears to have knocked it down in 3 weeks. There were #1 on the hit parade for new cases 12 or so days back - I think it was one Sunday or Saturday.

    "Support mental health or I'll break your head"

    ...with a 6 foot stick and mask and gloves....


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    Viejo del Foro Daddy-YO's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    For the US to have behaved as effectively as those Asian nations, martial law would had to have been declared at the first hint of an epidemic caused by an unknown vector. Remember Taiwanese doctors boarded planes from Wuhan to check passengers at that early stage. In America the free press would have been outraged at such an effrontery, maybe even calling it racial profiling. There is a fundamental difference between Asians and Americans in how they view such invasions of their lives. The Confucian philosophy of social harmony is strong throughout Asia. Americans take pride in being divided on every damned issue that comes before the public - thru conflict resolution wiser decisions are made.

    Back before the roll of TP postings here, I asked,
    Their totalitarian quarantine of the Wuhan region (Hubei) was impressive; it began Jan 23 (54 days after the virus first appeared). Before the lockdown virus carriers left and traveled worldwide. Hubei province is a small dot in the center of China. How is it that other regions of China itself were not disrupted with similar eruptions of coronavirus cases? There was never a nationwide quarantine that I’m aware of. China's total number of coronavirus cases is less than one hundredth of a percent of the country’s population of 1,439,324,000.
    Tomas Pueyo published a very informative statistical analysis of the pandemic data in JAMA, that was reported on medium.com. His statement that “China had up to 1,800 teams of 5 people each tracking every infected person, everybody they interacted with, then everybody those people interacted with, and isolating the bunch,” answered what was bugging me greatly. How were the Chinese able to contain the virus from spreading across their country of 1.4 billion-people? I’d guessed that it had more to do with their total surveillance apparatus, being able to identify an individual from Wuhan in, say, Beijing and grab him and any one he touches and toss them into isolation. That must have helped, but total raw manpower - that fits. Health workers? I doubt it. PLA in action most likely. 2 million active soldier standing around during 'peacetime'. An authoritarian government wouldn't hesitate to deploy them, while 'free' nations wring their hands and debate what's best.

  15. #15
    TRN Science officer bill_bly_ca's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    We had case #14 confirmed yesterday, only two are hospitalised. (Waterloo region Ontario)


    Federal and provincial governments put up tenders for 500 ventilators in Ontario Thursday and businesses are chomping at the bit to get them built.

    For the province healthcare is 40% of the budget so we in essence elect a healthcare provider every 4 yrs or so.

    Canada was about at the same ratio of the US aso of Thursday (770 for 33M vs 7,700 for 330M)

    A bit on the Cuban resort FB page last night - All inbound travel on non-nationals to Cuba is suspended. All who are in country asked to leave as early as possible.

    I bet there will be exceptions for Nicaraguans and Venezuelans though
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  16. #16

    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    Quote Originally Posted by el duende grande View Post
    I think the death of the tourist industry saved our butts and postponed the virus thing here. Every cloud has its silver lining. On the same token, flights out are now a nightmare. Will Panama and others allow transit?
    In wuhan it looks like a 4 month cycle with aggressive treatment, plus unknown number of months for it to wind down.
    Travel bans could be with us for much of the year. I have written off my 2020 vacation. Even travel incountry looks iffy now. Hoping for the best, but we are in a 2-3 month waiting period here right now.




    My vacation plans were either Colombia or Mexico, and if I won the lottery Spain or Taiwan. Dream on...


    Remember the 1918 started out about this time,, burned out, then re-ignited in the fall with ferocity. The second wave is the one that killed everyone. Places like Nicaragua will be ongoing pockets of infection.

  17. #17
    Viejo del Foro el duende grande's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    Holy jehoshaphat, miracles never cease. I never would have imagined the Embassy would ever talk in plane English. Must be a newby who will be punished and sent to the Congo. Poor newby, the truth will not set you free!

    U.S. citizen tourists should also consider advancing their departure plans from Nicaragua before the Nicaraguan health system becomes overwhelmed and flights become unavailable.

    "Support mental health or I'll break your head"

    ...with a 6 foot stick and mask and gloves....


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    TRN Science officer bill_bly_ca's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    MINED today still refused to suspend classes..

    Rosario is really rolling the dice on this one...
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  19. #19
    House SOB Little Corn Tom's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    Quote Originally Posted by bill_bly_ca View Post
    MINED today still refused to suspend classes..

    Rosario is really rolling the dice on this one...

    Time to reduce the social security rolls, eh? Nothing like a good epidemic.
    Life's different here ... It's a whole 'nother pace.

  20. #20
    TRN Science officer bill_bly_ca's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    El 19 is showing videos of their new IR temperature gauges.

    The operators proudly pointing the gauge at people shirts
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