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Thread: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

  1. #26
    Viejo del Foro el duende grande's Avatar
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    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    The only good thing is a bunch of people who are ignoring the govmint and laying low as best they can.

    "Support mental health or I'll break your head"

    ...with a 6 foot stick and mask and gloves....


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    TRN Science officer bill_bly_ca's Avatar
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    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    Plagues - Check
    Locust - Check

    What is next


    Forbes
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    Dog Whisperer cookshow's Avatar
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    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    Another new case reported yesterday, the difference being is first that they are not claiming was imported, transmitted from 1 of the people they say imported, but some news asking imported from where as the person has not been out of the Country.

    Some group donated 26,000 rapid result tests. https://confidencial.com.ni/secretis...-en-nicaragua/
    ‎"You know what you say when people tell you you can't do something? Fool, shut your mouth up!"
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  4. #29

    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    This is an interesting story:

    https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle...333&faf=1#vp_2


    "All 18 recovered . . . . "

  5. #30
    TRN Science officer bill_bly_ca's Avatar
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    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    The absolute bunk of the MINSA numbers can only be reflected by Cuba's data - IIRC Cuba has reported 3 of their cases coming from Nicaragua/Managua. On face value that means if there were 9 cases in Nicaragua (6 as per yesterdays numbers) 3 of them chose to fly to Havana and avoid the count.

    Absolute crap.

    Probably the best numbers to look for on the MINSA data 3 or 4 months from now is the Pneumonia deaths rather than C-19

    On a lot of the Chiseme FB lists there are unsubstantiated reports / videos of bodies being loaded in to Pengas for tossing at sea, vans arriving to markets with white suited morticians and body bags and the like.

    I would bet the country is in the 10 to 12 case a day relm soon to hit the 100's
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  6. #31
    Viejo del Foro Daddy-YO's Avatar
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    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    4/14/20 Snapshot of the death rates (total # deaths/million population) today. In this chart decimal rates have been rounded to the nearest digit, so you'll see several=0, where the death rate was 0.4/M or smaller. For the world there have been 16 death from covid-19 per million (population = 7,800 millions).

    Western Europe with its previously open borders has taken the worst hit. As you go east the death rate drops considerably Many still question the validity of reporting in these areas. The heavily populated Asia-Pacific region continues to have very low death rates, many contribute this to their rapid response and tight controls over their populations. For Latin America the numbers are also low except for two outliers (discussed earlier), And ditto for the rest of the world in the southern hemisphere that just passed thru summer.

    Western Europe
    Spain = 386 ___ Italy = 338 ___ Belgium = 359__
    France = 229 ___ Holland = 172____UK = 178 ___
    Ireland = 74 _____ Portugal = 56 ____
    Germany = 39_____Austria = 43______
    Norway = 28______Sweden = 102____
    Denmark = 52 ____Finland = 12_____
    Eastern Europe
    Poland = 7 ____ Romania = 18 _____
    Czechia = 16 _____ Serbia = 11 _____
    Belarus = 3 ___ Ukraine = 2 ___ Russia = 1 ___
    Asia-Pacific
    China = 2 ___ Malaysia = 3 ___ Thailand = 1___
    Taiwan = 1 __ S.Korea = 4 __ Hong Kong = 1 ___
    Singapore = 2___Indonesia = 2___ Japan = 1 ___
    India = 0 ___ Pakistan = 0___Bangladesh = 0___
    Middle East
    Israel = 14____ Turkey = 15 _____ Iran = 56____
    Egypt = 2____Saudi Arabia = 2 __Iraq = 2 ___
    North America
    USA = 74 ______ Canada = 22 ______
    Latin America
    México = 3__ Guatemala = 0__ Honduras = 3 ___
    Costa Rica = 1___Cuba = 2___ Panama = 22___
    Colombia = 2 ___ Peru = 7 ____ Ecuador = 20 ___
    Brazil = 6 ____Chile = 5 ____ Argentina = 2 ___
    Paraguay = 1 _____Bolivia = 2 ____
    South Pacific
    Vietnam = 0 ___ Laos = 0 __ Philippines = 3 ___
    Australia = 2 ____ New Zealand = 2 _____
    Africa
    Algeria = 7___ Tunisia = 3_____ Morocco = 3 ___
    Niger = 1 __ Nigeria = 0 __ Rwanda = 0 _____
    Congo = 1 ____Zambia = 0 ___ Uganda = 0 ____
    Angola = 0 _____South Africa = 1 ___

  7. #32
    Viejo del Foro Daddy-YO's Avatar
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    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    Snapshot 4/27/20 Yes, the numbers are total covid-19 deaths per million population, as before. In North America & Western Europe the number of deaths roughly doubled since the last snapshot nearly 2 weeks ago. Notice that NY & NJ & Conn are worse than Spain, that overtook Italy as the focus of Western eyes watching the horror of this pandemic. The 4 states in the NY area account for 60% of US deaths.

    Many variables, many factors account for the country to country differences within any one region. The numbers drop as we look eastward, but still they continue to increase, so could it be that the brunt of the pandemic hasn’t yet reached there, or are they better at holding it at bay? The numbers in Asia-Pacific continue very low and nearly unchanged as though they’re barely affected by this pandemic. Even with a few outliers the numbers in Latin America are quite low compared to Western Europe & North America, but they have also been increasing, which may just be a normal flu-like attrition.

    North America
    USA = 171 ______ Canada = 72 ______
    NY = 1,153___ NJ = 680___ MA = 440____
    Conn = 553___ Louisiana = 373___
    Western Europe
    Spain = 503 ___ Italy = 446 ___ Belgium = 622__
    France = 357 ___ Holland = 264____UK = 311 ___
    Ireland = 223 _____ Portugal = 91 ____
    Germany = 72_____Austria = 61______
    Norway = 38______Sweden = 225 ____
    Denmark =74 ____Finland = 35 _____
    Eastern Europe
    Poland = 15 ____ Romania = 33 _____
    Czechia = 21 _____ Serbia = 19 _____
    Belarus = 8 ___ Ukraine = 5 ___ Russia = 5 ___
    Asia-Pacific
    China = 3 ___ Malaysia = 3 ___ Thailand = 1___
    Taiwan = 0 __ S.Korea = 5 __ Hong Kong = 1___
    Singapore = 2___Indonesia = 3___ Japan = 3 ___
    India = 1 ___ Pakistan = 1___Bangladesh = 1___
    South Pacific
    Vietnam = 0 ___ Laos = 0 __ Philippines = 5 ___
    Australia = 3 ____ New Zealand = 4 _____
    Middle East
    Israel = 24____ Turkey = 34 _____ Iran = 69____
    Egypt = 3____Saudi Arabia = 4 __Iraq = 2 ___
    Latin America
    México = 10__ Guatemala = 1__ Honduras = 6 ___
    Costa Rica = 1___Cuba = 5___ Panama = 38___
    Colombia = 5 ___ Peru = 24 ____ Ecuador = 38 ___
    Brazil = 21____Chile = 10____ Argentina = 4 ___
    Paraguay = 1 _____Bolivia = 4____
    Africa
    Algeria = 10___ Tunisia = 3_____ Morocco = 4 ___
    Niger = 1 __ Nigeria = 0 __ Rwanda = 0 _____
    Congo = 1 ____Zambia = 0 ___ Uganda = 0 ____
    Angola = 0 _____South Africa = 2 ___

  8. #33
    Viejo del Foro Daddy-YO's Avatar
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    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    The BCG vaccine: I've written about apparent differences in CoV-19 death rates in countries that don't require their kids to get this TB vaccine and those that do (post#15) and included an atlas of who does & doesn't (post#20). Today's NYTimes deals squarely with this issue:
    "At more than 25 universities and clinical centers around the world, researchers have begun clinical trials, primarily in health care workers, to test whether a live tuberculosis vaccine that has been in use for 99 years called the bacillus Calmette-Guérin, or B.C.G., vaccine, could reduce the risks associated with the coronavirus."
    A branch of immunology known as innate immunity now believes that live vaccines, which are made from living but attenuated pathogens provide broad protection against infections in ways that no one anticipated. “I suspect it’ll have an effect” on the coronavirus, said Jeffrey Cirillo, a microbiologist and immunologist at Texas A&M who is leading one of the B.C.G. trials. . This can be a bridge until we have the time to develop a specific vaccine.
    ____ In 1927, soon after B.C.G. was rolled out, Carl Naslund of the Swedish Tuberculosis Society observed that children vaccinated with the live tuberculosis vaccine were three times less likely to die of any cause compared with kids who weren’t. “One is tempted to explain this very low mortality among vaccinated children by the idea that B.C.G. vaccine provokes a nonspecific immunity,” In clinical trials from the 1940s and ’50s, they found that B.C.G. reduced non accidental deaths from causes other than tuberculosis by an average of 25 percent. Dr. Stanley Plotkin, a vaccinologist at the U Penn, “vaccines can affect the immune system beyond the response to the specific pathogen.'' Those who had been given B.C.G. were better able to fight off yellow fever.
    ____ Scientists have long believed that vaccines work by stimulating the body’s highly specific adaptive immune system. Over the past decade, immunologists have discovered that live vaccines also stimulate the innate immune system, which is less specific but much faster.
    _____ Also, B.C.G. may actually be able to ramp up the body’s initial immune response in ways that reduce the amount of virus in the body, such that an inflammatory response never occurs. It may “lead to less infection to start with,” said Dr. Moshe Arditi, the director of the Infectious and Immunological Diseases Research Center at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center in Los Angeles, who is leading one of the trial arms.
    _____ The science on this is still early days. Several pre-prints have reported that death rates are lower in countries that routinely vaccinate children with B.C.G.
    from 5/1/20 NYT What if We Already Have a Coronavirus Vaccine? by Melinda Wenner Moyer
    Bottom line: our ignorance of our immune systems is showing, even after HIV-AIDS.

  9. #34

    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    " . . .The BCG vaccine: I've written about apparent differences in CoV-19 death rates in countries that don't require their kids to get this TB vaccine and those that do (post#15) and included an atlas of who does & doesn't (post#20). Today's NYTimes deals squarely with this issue: "


    Daddy-Yo ahead of the curve as usual. So, in Nicaragua this vaccine would still be available from a friendly MINSA doctor, if one wanted to do a personal "trial". Why not ?

    And hydroxychloroqine + zinc + azith, if started at onset of the virus,, another great possibility. But, not here in the US. Unless you have a doctor in the family.


    I was looking at some numbers this morning. If you back out the numbers from NY and NJ,, this pandemic is nothing like a bad flu year.
    In 1957-58,, there were 116,000 US deaths from an H2N2 virus
    In 1968, there were 100,000 US deaths from an H3N2 virus

    So, if you back out just NY and NJ, we have had 30,000 deaths so far in the rest of the US. If you back out the eastern seaboard, even less.
    We really don't know the demographic associated with the majority of deaths,, and probably never will.

    Political Correctness will triumph.
    We don't want to stigmatize people for making questionable life style choices. Like,, gluttony, butt rangering, and injecting intravenous drugs.

    So, the rest of the country,, what ?? In fact, just six states accounted for 44,000 of the 65,000 deaths in the US
    Most of this demographic does not exist in Nicaragua.
    So we will never have a good comparison between deaths in Nicaragua, and deaths in the US.

    A more telling comparison will be what happened in the US,,, and what happened in Sweden.


    Would it not have made more sense to just quarantine NYC, and let the rest of us get on with business ?

  10. #35
    House SOB Little Corn Tom's Avatar
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    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    Quote Originally Posted by KeyWestPirate View Post
    " . . .

    Would it not have made more sense to just quarantine NYC, and let the rest of us get on with business ?
    Shoulda quarantined NY City and advised the rest of the country to wear masks in public and distance themselves when in public places. Just be reasonable folks.

    The results wudda been the same and we would still have a culture and an economy.
    Life's different here ... It's a whole 'nother pace.

  11. #36
    Viejo del Foro el duende grande's Avatar
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    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    Wuflu has only been here for the equivalent of 1/2 a flu season, so double the 62k to get 124k for a whole flu season. Nationwide, we seem to be on a plateau of about 2200 deaths daily. That is a plateau, not a downtrend.

    NY is a classic bad example for incompetent public health and political leaders, but the whole country has been seeded. And the 18-24 month pandemic is not over yet. More limited restrictions + competent health officials could work in smaller, more spread out areas. But they still don't have the tests and PPEs, despite the lies from on high.
    My home county health dept reports they cannont investigate a suspected hot spot for lack of tests.

    "Support mental health or I'll break your head"

    ...with a 6 foot stick and mask and gloves....


  12. #37

    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    Quote Originally Posted by el duende grande View Post
    Wuflu has only been here for the equivalent of 1/2 a flu season, so double the 62k to get 124k for a whole flu season. Nationwide, we seem to be on a plateau of about 2200 deaths daily. That is a plateau, not a downtrend.

    NY is a classic bad example for incompetent public health and political leaders, but the whole country has been seeded. And the 18-24 month pandemic is not over yet. More limited restrictions + competent health officials could work in smaller, more spread out areas. But they still don't have the tests and PPEs, despite the lies from on high.
    My home county health dept reports they cannont investigate a suspected hot spot for lack of tests.


    Clearly, we don't have sufficient information to really know what happened,, and may never have all of it. NYC had to have been well seeded, but new cases and deaths have dropped off. 315K cases out of a population of 8 million. What happened to the rest ? NYC is kicking the homeless out of the subway every night now to clean it, but how will they every get rid of the virus completely ??? The problems are structural and really have no solution in a progressive culture.


    I watched an interview with a recovered patient on ABC news this afternoon,, he was still in his hospital room in his 4XXL hospital gown. He had to be 350 lbs if he was an ounce. Is this a culling of the herd?



    University of Arizona (Tucson) is planning a normal semester this fall. They are testing a vaccine on humans in at least two locations. I'll finally be able to get a beer next Friday at old Chicago. Trump will be back on the campaign trail. This is old news in the US.

    Now, Nicaragua,, that's where it will be interesting. Will the BCG vaccine,, and the youth of the country give them a pass ?? I read La Prensa every morning when I wake up,, but don't see any serious movement yet.

    It's in the DIMs best interest to keep this going in the US,, to as close to the 2020 election as they can, but they are getting a lot of push back from the people.
    Last edited by KeyWestPirate; 05-01-2020 at 08:41 PM.

  13. #38
    Viejo del Foro el duende grande's Avatar
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    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    Dems just closed Gallup NM. Too many sick Indians? Yahoos are enraged and want war.

    If Nic. gets a pass it will be because of individuals and private companies taking precautions and Minsa working for a living. Not likely, but here's hoping.

    Nationwide, look at the daily cases. Thru April it has been about 25-30K new cases a day nation wide. No downturn evident, it is just spreading to different places.
    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...ses-in-us.html

    "Support mental health or I'll break your head"

    ...with a 6 foot stick and mask and gloves....


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    Dog Whisperer cookshow's Avatar
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    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    Lots of places in States opening up, in my home state restaurants opened yesterday. Hard for me to understand as no considerable, if any drop in new cases. Know people were going nuts and economy is in toilet, but still hard to understand.

    Far as here, who knows, maybe "God" will protect them. Looks like around half or so of population taking precautions from what I see. They do seem to be reporting more "official" cases here, and the rumors of otherly diagnosed, but with Covid is rampant.
    ‎"You know what you say when people tell you you can't do something? Fool, shut your mouth up!"
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    Active TRN Member RGV AG's Avatar
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    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    Two acquaintances of mine up here in Texas both tested positive for the antibodies this week. Both believe to have had the deal in late Feb and early March. I bet there is some of that in Nicaragua as well. It seems a minority, it might appear, is the group that gets hammered by the virus. I really have no idea. But there are quite few sick people in a lot of places.

    This is a Goddam mess really.

    Price of beer has basically doubled in Mexico in the past week. The fragile distribution channels are a mess, I bet CentAm is the same.

    I am not sure about the whole social distancing and what not.

  16. #41
    Dog Whisperer cookshow's Avatar
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    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    Watch and see.
    ‎"You know what you say when people tell you you can't do something? Fool, shut your mouth up!"
    Ernie K Doe

  17. #42
    Viejo del Foro el duende grande's Avatar
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    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    The states are opening things, but with restrictions like 30% occupancy in restaurants but I don't know who is going to enforce it. I guess I will by not going! We did some take out this weeks, but mostly to humor the ole lady.

    What goes around comes around. The 2008 recession brought us the "too big to fail" for capital. Now the people have a Constitution right, and bragging rights, for being broke and living check to check. It is a badge of honor to be financially irresponsible!

    "Support mental health or I'll break your head"

    ...with a 6 foot stick and mask and gloves....


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    Dog Whisperer cookshow's Avatar
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    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    Saw people lined up at banks yesterday like cord wood, few with masks, I don't know how this will play out here, observing and hoping I don't get it.
    ‎"You know what you say when people tell you you can't do something? Fool, shut your mouth up!"
    Ernie K Doe

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    Viejo del Foro el duende grande's Avatar
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    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    Ditto. Payday in stupid land. I used to judge stores by inventory, price, and personnel that didn't annoy me. Now sanitation is a big feature. Wife went to the mall for takeout. Pollo estrella people had on masks, pizza valente had no masks and were coughing in a small work area. chicken was fine.

    Passed by Sinsa, parking lot full. Kept going--maybe some hot afternoon I will try again. I'm an ole desert boy--getup, get your shit done early before the heat. I really hate going out in the afternoon like some coastal noob or bored female.

    I can see the future in the US--many stores don't have room to space people-either the gov will shut them down or people like me will boycott them out of business. Last trip to my hometown in Dec. I noticed how so many strip malls were empty from the 2008 recession. Here comes round 2.

    gotta go spray, zancudos are crazy this year.

    "Support mental health or I'll break your head"

    ...with a 6 foot stick and mask and gloves....


  20. #45
    Viejo del Foro Daddy-YO's Avatar
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    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    Quote Originally Posted by cookshow View Post
    Saw people lined up at banks yesterday like cord wood, few with masks, I don't know how this will play out here, observing and hoping I don't get it.
    Ditto here in Leon at the BanPro by the Station, very long lines chest to back. And at the Pali across the street, an unusually large number of people with debit cards, each carrying out two 50 lb sacks of groceries, cleaning out the store. Most here don't wear masks. I don't except upon entering La Union or Claro or standing in line at McD's. El Mirador, the sunset bar above la Cancha, was packed the other night, mostly UNAN shtoondts. Not a seat available. All swilling beer, eating the best nachos in town, gabbing and laughing - try that with a mask on.

    Dog Whisperer, don't just hope, bat it down to something you can swallow and go on as normal. Buy zinc tablets and cloroquina. When you feel flu symptoms coming on or an unusually sore throat or shortness of breathe, pop a zinc and half a cloroquina tab (= 125 mg) and ride it out. Next day same or worse symptoms, repeat. Take advantage of living in Nicaragua: self-medicate. Never go to a hospital, IMO, esp. during a highly contagious epidemic cause that's where all the infected go, unless that's where you want to die.

  21. #46

    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    " ..gotta go spray, zancudos are crazy this year.."

    Already? Has it rained? There was some speculation early on that mosquitos could spread Covid. Lile Nile and Zika

  22. #47
    Viejo del Foro el duende grande's Avatar
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    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    No rain, but lots of heat. We have irrigated agriculture on 2 sides, and water and sewer leaks in the neighborhood, not to mention our own gardens.

    And some bad smog days, the usual crap plus the field burning. Friday the sky was an off-gray color the whole day, not blue in the morning and cloudy in the afternoon.

    "Support mental health or I'll break your head"

    ...with a 6 foot stick and mask and gloves....


  23. #48
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    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    I always call the end of the Dry season " burning season". I am always coughing or sneezing.
    ‎"You know what you say when people tell you you can't do something? Fool, shut your mouth up!"
    Ernie K Doe

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    Active TRN Member RGV AG's Avatar
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    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    Quote Originally Posted by cookshow View Post
    I always call the end of the Dry season " burning season". I am always coughing or sneezing.
    Two seasons in Nicaragua, mud and dust.

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    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    This showed up for Ontario today - 14M (a little of a third of the country's population)

    According to Saturday’s epidemiological summary, of all deceased patients in Ontario, seven were between the ages of 20 and 39, fifty-five people were between the ages of 40 and 59 and 309 people were between the ages of 60 and 79.

    People, who are over the age of 80, continue to be the hardest hit group. So far, at least 845 people in this age group of have died.

    The province also reported that 12,005 (68.4 per cent) of COVID-19 cases in Ontario have now been resolved.
    Of the more than 17,000 COVID-19 lab-confirmed cases reported in Ontario, health officials say about 12.0 per cent have been hospitalized at some point.
    As of Saturday, there are 1,010 people in hospital, 33 more than the day before. The province reported that 232 of those patients are in the intensive care unit and about 174 of them are using a ventilator.
    The province reported that 2,640 health-care workers have also been diagnosed with COVID-19.
    CTV News

    It then breaks it down a little deeper.

    Quick facts on all Ontario COVID-19 patients:

    • 41.5 per cent of all patients in the province are male and 57.6 per cent are female – 153 cases did not specify male or female gender.
    • 2.4 per cent of all patients are 19 years of age or younger.
    • 23 per cent of all patients are between the ages of 20 and 39.
    • 30.1 per cent of all patients are between the ages of 40 and 59.
    • 22 per cent of all patients are between the ages of 60 and 79.
    • 22.4 per cent of all patients are 80 years of age or older.
    • Public health units in the Greater Toronto Area account for 59.8 per cent of all cases.
    • 15 per cent off all patients are health-care workers.
    • 6.9 per cent of all patients had travelled in the 14 days prior to becoming ill.
    • 20.7 per cent of all patients had contact with a previously confirmed case
    • 36.2 per cent of all patients had community exposure
    • 36.2 per cent of all patients had exposure information listed as pending

    In total, the province has conducted more than 327,505 tests for the novel coronavirus.
    In the last 24 hours, officials conducted 17,146 tests. There are 9,785 test samples under investigation. The province’s goal was to reach 16,000 tests daily by May 6



    We are almost ready to open again

    ==================================================
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