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Thread: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

  1. #101

    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    " --Don't get exposed or be protected by the vaccine when it arrives.
    No sympathy for miracle cures. ..."



    Yes, no vaccine, no cure.

    Difficult to avoid it forever. Better chance in Nicaragua if they reach herd immunity. Such an interesting experiment.
    In the US, we're just putting off the inevitable.

    Everything we have been talking about is mitigation.
    Whether it's $4500 /dose Remdesivir ,, or 25 cent hydroxychloroquine and zinc,, these are therapeutics that mitigate the worst effects of the virus by slowing replication and boosting the immune system.

    https://havanatimes.org/news/new-pro...-in-nicaragua/


    ".......
    It’s also required for the patient to have completed five days of treatment with chloroquine, nitazoxanide, azithromycin, lopinavir or ritonavir. They warn that every patient released “will be sent to home quarantine for 21 days from the onset of symptoms have passed. .."

    I was aware of everything but the anti parasito nitazoxanide

  2. #102
    Viejo del Foro el duende grande's Avatar
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    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    The irony of it all--Nic and the US have the same policy--sit on your thumbs for months until the cat is out of the bag and you are truly screwed.

    "Support mental health or I'll break your head"

    ...with a 6 foot stick and mask and gloves....


  3. #103
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    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    Reply to Pirate, the Nica five days of treatment with chloroquine, nitazoxanide, azithromycin, lopinavir or ritonavir is a kitchen-sink combo of antivirals + respiratory antibiotic Azitro
    ______Nitazoxanide = a first-in-class broad-spectrum antiviral agent. Ref: NIH.gov
    That followed by 21 day in-house quarantine with daily monitoring by MINSA is a wise procedure.
    To gather those infected with this highly contagious disease in hospitals is practically the definition of social insanity.

    In the USA, the total number of CoV-19 deaths per week is decreasing:
    Wk ending ___total ____per week ___ave/d
    3/28_______2,754_____ 2,754 _____ 393
    4/4 ______ 10,384 _____ 7.630 ____ 1,090
    4/11 _____ 24,962 ____ 13,678 ____ 1,954
    4/18 _____ 39,331 ____ 15.269 ____ 2.181
    4/25 _____ 54,256 ____ 14,925 ____ 2,132
    5/2 ______ 67.444 ____ 13.188 ____ 1,884
    5/9 ______ 80,037 ____ 12,593 ____ 1,799

    Last week’s global deaths/M stats were post#52. In most of the world, deaths/M is flattening.. The gross mortality due to covid-19 per million population is seen to be very unevenly distributed around the world. What seems to be a disaster in the US & Western Europe, is only a small perturbation of normal death patterns in much of the rest of the world, especially in Asia where it began. This goes far beyond lawful quarantining and social distancing measures. Coincidentally it reflects the distribution of BCG vaccine in much of the world (atlas shown in post#20)

    deaths/M - 5/11/20 - North America
    USA = 247 ______ Canada = 132 ______
    NY = 1,388 ___ NJ = 1,052 ___ MA = 741 ____
    Conn = 844 ___ Louisiana = 496 ___
    Western Europe
    Spain = 572 ___ Italy = 508 ___ Belgium = 751__
    France = 408 ___ Holland = 318____UK = 472 ___
    Ireland = 297 _____ Portugal = 112 ____
    Germany = 91_____Austria = 69______
    Norway = 42______Sweden = 322____
    Denmark = 92 ____Finland = 49_____
    Eastern Europe
    Poland = 21 ____ Romania = 51 _____
    Czechia = 26_____ Serbia = 25 _____
    Belarus = 14 ___ Ukraine = 9 ___ Russia = 14 ___
    Asia-Pacific
    China = 3 ___ Malaysia = 3 ___ Thailand = 1___
    Taiwan = 0 __ S.Korea = 5 __ Hong Kong = 1 ___
    Singapore = 4___Indonesia = 4___ Japan = 5 ___
    India = 2 ___ Pakistan = 3___Bangladesh = 1___
    Middle East
    Israel = 30____ Turkey = 46 _____ Iran = 80____
    Egypt = 5____Saudi Arabia = 7 __Iraq = 3 ___
    Latin America
    México = 28 __ Guatemala = 1__ Honduras = 12 ___
    Costa Rica = 1___Cuba = 7___ Panama = 58___
    Colombia = 9 ___ Peru = 59 ____ Ecuador = 122 ___
    Brazil = 55 ____Chile = 17 ____ Argentina = 7 ___
    Paraguay = 1 _____Bolivia = 10 ____
    South Pacific
    Vietnam = 0 ___ Laos = 0 __ Philippines = 7___
    Australia = 4 ____ New Zealand = 4 _____
    Africa
    Algeria = 12___ Tunisia = 4_____ Morocco = 5 ___
    Niger = 2__ Nigeria = 1 __ Rwanda = 0 _____
    Congo = 2 ____Zambia = 0___ Uganda = 0 ____
    Angola = 0 _____South Africa = 3 ___


  4. #104
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    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    Some research on people being "reinfected" shows that they never recovered at all. The drug treatment lowered the virus count down to where the tests couldn't pick it up but it was still there. Hence, the 21 day quarantine makes sense. Sneaky bug.

    "Support mental health or I'll break your head"

    ...with a 6 foot stick and mask and gloves....


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    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    Who knows how this will play out here, but honestly probably no worse than in countries that shut down. In last 3 days people been scarce on streets as have vendors, more places closed so guessing people know people with it. Last week saw masks in use, this week, people damn sure distancing.

    What I do not think people here realize is the fallout.. So many things will never be the same. Ton of backpackers and they think flights will resume in early June, would bet that don't happen.
    ‎"You know what you say when people tell you you can't do something? Fool, shut your mouth up!"
    Ernie K Doe

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    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    As usual news is all over the place, but even if you divide it by 50% the news from Chinandega sounds bad.
    ‎"You know what you say when people tell you you can't do something? Fool, shut your mouth up!"
    Ernie K Doe

  7. #107

    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    This is a long read, but there are several pearls of wisdom embedded.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/12/m...loroquine.html

  8. #108
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    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    Quote Originally Posted by KeyWestPirate View Post
    Read it this AM. Raoult's a character. Bottom line: no clear take home on chloroquines + azithromycin (which also functions as an antiviral). He doesn't believe in randomized controlled trials. He refers to the parachute paradigm:
    We tend to accept the claim that parachutes reduce injury among people who leap from airplanes, but this effect has never been proved in a randomized study that compares an experimental parachute group to an unlucky parachuteless control.
    In his most recent study, 1,061 patients were treated with the drug combo - 98.7% were cured. But the critics say,
    That cure rate is almost identical to what’s been described about the natural course of the disease.
    Sounds like glass half-full/half-empty. It would be informative to learn details: age, comorbidity, time of infection/treatment, . . . Oh, well, no one seems to have a clue.

    I liked his comment about Trump's psychology,
    Raoult classified Trump’s psychology as that of an “entrepreneur,” by way of contrast with that of a “politician.” “Entrepreneurs are people who know how to decide, who know how to take risks,” he said. “And at a certain point, to decide is to take a risk. Every decision is a risk.”

  9. #109
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    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    See lot of criticism of Trump, but what could he do, what could anyone do. Then you can read is this is some plot to get him out??? He will win because Dems are like opposition here, own worst enemy.

    Life changes forever now, people (sheople) better get their shit together.
    ‎"You know what you say when people tell you you can't do something? Fool, shut your mouth up!"
    Ernie K Doe

  10. #110
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    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    Quote Originally Posted by cookshow View Post
    As usual news is all over the place, but even if you divide it by 50% the news from Chinandega sounds bad.
    At the beginning it was the same Chisme group photo of the same coverall clan picking up a body or maybe a body in the street.

    Today it is numerous coverall clad pickups , bodies in the street even gurneys of cadavers in bags lined outside the hospital for expedited burial

    Hard to say for sure it is real but people seem to be gobbling it up, and family is spooked - Really spooked - and don't venture out from the house.
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    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    There is some crazy shit on internet, even if half true is bad.
    ‎"You know what you say when people tell you you can't do something? Fool, shut your mouth up!"
    Ernie K Doe

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    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    A La Costena pilot is hospitalized. Yep he has it and been passing to frequent flyers...
    ‎"You know what you say when people tell you you can't do something? Fool, shut your mouth up!"
    Ernie K Doe

  13. #113

    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    Quote Originally Posted by Daddy-YO View Post
    Read it this AM. Raoult's a character. Bottom line: no clear take home on chloroquines + azithromycin (which also functions as an antiviral). He doesn't believe in randomized controlled trials. He refers to the parachute paradigm:
    In his most recent study, 1,061 patients were treated with the drug combo - 98.7% were cured. But the critics say,

    Sounds like glass half-full/half-empty. It would be informative to learn details: age, comorbidity, time of infection/treatment, . . . Oh, well, no one seems to have a clue.

    I liked his comment about Trump's psychology,



    Well,, as he points out somewhere in the article (and I'm not going to read it again to find it),, The virus really isn't killing enough people to tell if the mitigation helps or not.

    So, most people unless -- they are part of an unfortunate demographic, recover after variable amounts of grief. So you give someone the magic treatment,, and they recover!
    You don't give them the magic treatment, and they still recover. OK,, with a big enough study you might see variation in days in the hospital,, as a result of the treatment.

    But, then again , there are so many other variables. So many unanswered questions: why does a healthy 32 Yr Old nurse die, and relatively quickly; and her sick 67 Yr Old patient survive ??

    My sense is,, for the Hydroxychloroquine + + + (name your own poison here),, it has to be begun at onset or soon after. Like Tamiflu and influenza. If you wait, it doesn't help. If you take it at onset, it substantially mitigates the symptoms.

    Here, that's probably not a possibility unless you have a doctor in the family.

  14. #114
    TRN Science officer bill_bly_ca's Avatar
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    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    Quote Originally Posted by KeyWestPirate View Post

    So, most people unless -- they are part of an unfortunate demographic, recover after variable amounts of grief. So you give someone the magic treatment,, and they recover!
    The EU data shows 4x the standard deviation of deaths in the first half of the quarter of 2020 over the second half of the first quarter (Jan/mid feb over Mid Feb to end March) and even more compelling, also deaths observed with data for 2016 to 2019. All of those years statistical death was pretty 1) flat 2) normal (to previous years) for quantity

    So more people have died than normal in the EU. As I may have said previously - It could be because they choked on Kinder surprise , had IKEA furniture fall on them, or had their death hastened by Covid - No one knows for sure. BUT - those places that did isolate did not see those spikes in there population..

    New data, just starting to emerge (a lot from autopsies which take time to correlate) and other in general quantity of ailments, are showing an unusual spikes in stroke and heart attacks in number and morbidity for the past 12 weeks as well.

    You have to keep in mind clinicians are typically 2 weeks behind their data, researchers 2 weeks behind them, reports written 2 weeks behind that, and the media 2 weeks behind that.

    What we read is what was being experienced/learned 6 to 8 weeks ago...

    This thing will not be fully understood for years.
    Last edited by bill_bly_ca; 05-12-2020 at 10:16 PM.
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  15. #115
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    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    Collateral damage--elderly friend has not gone to clinic to get her BP medicine because 2 nurses in clinic "got sick". I suggested she send her daughter with a mask but who knows what the bureaucracy will allow. I mentioned to my wife that in my home town the restaurants deliver takeout to curb side. I got the usual response to these persnickety comments.

    Trump is an entrepreneur--and a biological dunce. His plan is to push reopening hard, maintain something like 2k deaths a day till Aug 1 when the disease will die on demand and then we sail with clear skies to the elections. Let's wait and see his Aug 1 revision. So far the virus has been smarter and faster than the politicians. So far, Taiwan's test, track, isolate, and treat is working fine.

    New stats on new cases and new deaths seem to be on a slight down trend which will probably pick up with reopening. Reopening will be slow because the mayors and governors who have the control-and the responsibility-- are going slow so we may end up with controlled spike, not an instant (6 day delay) disaster.

    This map shows where cases are climbing, stable, or declining by state. If the Washington they are referring to is
    Washington State, this is very bad. They should be climbing out by now. Hawaii has a fantastic curve.

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...-us-cases.html

    "Support mental health or I'll break your head"

    ...with a 6 foot stick and mask and gloves....


  16. #116
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    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    "Old Vaccine Gets New Look in Tests for Coronavirus Protection
    "Researchers see promise in using BCG, a 100-year-old tuberculosis shot, until a vaccination for the new virus is developed (... the 12th of Never?)
    "Trials have begun on what researchers say could be a stopgap vaccination against the new coronavirus, testing a century-old tuberculosis vaccine on thousands of people including police in India, health-care workers in Texas and elderly people in the Netherlands.
    "The trials intend to determine whether the vaccine known as BCG, which is used in most of the world outside the U.S. and Western Europe, offers protection against Covid-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus."
    5/13/20 Wall St.J TO READ THE FULL STORY SUBSCRIBE

    Wait , , , has Dr. Fauci approved of these trials?
    I never met a Semite I didn't like.

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    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    Quote Originally Posted by Daddy-YO View Post

    Wait , , , has Dr. Fauci approved of these trials?

    This is the crux of the issue

    Your Dr Fauchi, and our Dr Tam, are Clinicians (Dr's and both pretty good CV's) who are only in an advisory position with little if any authority.

    They can not order lock downs, just recommend them. They can not approve treatments, just suggest whether they are plausible remidies.

    Why the pile on to them?
    ==================================================
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  18. #118

    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    Quote Originally Posted by Daddy-YO View Post
    "Old Vaccine Gets New Look in Tests for Coronavirus Protection
    "Researchers see promise in using BCG, a 100-year-old tuberculosis shot, until a vaccination for the new virus is developed (... the 12th of Never?)
    "Trials have begun on what researchers say could be a stopgap vaccination against the new coronavirus, testing a century-old tuberculosis vaccine on thousands of people including police in India, health-care workers in Texas and elderly people in the Netherlands.
    "The trials intend to determine whether the vaccine known as BCG, which is used in most of the world outside the U.S. and Western Europe, offers protection against Covid-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus."
    5/13/20 Wall St.J TO READ THE FULL STORY SUBSCRIBE

    Wait , , , has Dr. Fauci approved of these trials?


    I watched a PBS interview sometime back when someone suggested that any vaccination would temporarily wake up the immune system. He suggested the polio vaccine,, as it's safe with minimal side effects.

    The BCG vaccine , normally used for newborns, IS given to health care workers who are at risk for tuberculosis , so there is an existing body out there who have been vaccinated.

    Are they getting Covid ??

    I did the numbers again tonight. Backing out NY, NJ, MI, IL, MA, and PA,, which account for 54,000 of the 84,000 deaths in the US leaves 30K to be shared among the remaining 44 states. 30K would be a good number.

    Of the six hardest hit states,, NY leads with 27,000 deaths, or 1400 per million. Arizona has 594, or 82 per million.

    Questions beg answers that we are not going to get.

    And, the Fat Lady hasn't sung yet,, and probably won't for a while.

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    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    Quote Originally Posted by bill_bly_ca View Post
    Why the pile on to them?
    For Fauci, the simple answer is the media. Fauci urges caution, full methodical analyses, proven double blind trials. Trump sees the pandemic as a battlefield, saying let the sick try hydroxychloroquine. Where they disagree - schools, work, how to live life - the popular press, predominant hate-Trump Dem elites, plays it as the wise scientist versus the dumb politician who'll kill you if you listen to him. So, many pro-Trumpers choose to hate Fauci.

    Dr. Tam? Like Fauci, she delivers bad news - for your own good, mind you. Lots of people feel that such a big deal should not have been made of this pandemic. Protect the vulnerable OK, but let us live our lives, esp. wilderness men of Canada.

  20. #120
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    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    Quote Originally Posted by KeyWestPirate View Post
    ... someone suggested that any vaccination would temporarily wake up the immune system. He suggested the polio vaccine
    Fauci & Bill Gates are pushing that. Most everyone on earth got polio shots, but this pandemic's death rate is very unevenly distributed globally. If it bolsters the immune system against this coronavirus, OK, let's see the proof. Only a few countries don't give kids the BCG vaccine, like the USA & Europe and their folk are dropping like flies relative to the rest of the world.

    Quote Originally Posted by KeyWestPirate View Post
    Of the six hardest hit states,, NY leads with 27,000 deaths, or 1400 per million. Arizona has 594, or 82 per million. Questions beg answers that we are not going to get.
    Federalism, my ass, it's one size fits all. It's such nonsense. That's why Elon Musk is calling the CA health board "fascists" for not letting his workers come back to his Tesla plant in the desert near Reno.

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    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    Kings of Corona, 25 cases, 8 dead. when borders do open who do you think will let anyone from Nica in.
    ‎"You know what you say when people tell you you can't do something? Fool, shut your mouth up!"
    Ernie K Doe

  22. #122

    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    Quote Originally Posted by Daddy-YO View Post
    For Fauci, the simple answer is the media. Fauci urges caution, full methodical analyses, proven double blind trials. Trump sees the pandemic as a battlefield, saying let the sick try hydroxychloroquine. Where they disagree - schools, work, how to live life - the popular press, predominant hate-Trump Dem elites, plays it as the wise scientist versus the dumb politician who'll kill you if you listen to him. So, many pro-Trumpers choose to hate Fauci.

    Dr. Tam? Like Fauci, she delivers bad news - for your own good, mind you. Lots of people feel that such a big deal should not have been made of this pandemic. Protect the vulnerable OK, but let us live our lives, esp. wilderness men of Canada.


    "Protect the vulnerable OK, but let us live our lives, esp. wilderness men of
    Canada. "


    The Covid pandemic has gone PC Speak,, like everything else in the US.
    I long for the days when you could call a spade a spade and let the chips fall where they might.
    We had a fighting chance of getting unfiltered information that allowed us to make a decent decision.

    We all suffer collectively for the questionable "lifestyle choices" of others.

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    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    The trouble with "protecting the most vulnerable" is that they are 1/3 the population or more and that the US doesn't seem to be able to protect anyone, including White House staff.

    And of course, PC.
    Running scoreboard:
    China 1
    Banks 1
    Trump 0
    Dems -1

    That Chinese Century is going to be a bitch.

    "Support mental health or I'll break your head"

    ...with a 6 foot stick and mask and gloves....


  24. #124
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    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    Quote Originally Posted by el duende grande View Post
    The trouble with "protecting the most vulnerable" is that they are 1/3 the population or more and that the US doesn't seem to be able to protect anyone, including White House staff.
    Getting covid-19 isn't so much a problem, 99+% will survive it. It's those on death's doorstep who are "most vulnerable" and ought to be safely isolated - voluntarily - until a good therapy or vaccine comes along.

    Let's cut the 99% a little slack and stop treating them like dunces to be manipulated.

  25. #125

    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    Will wonders never cease!!!


    https://www.foxnews.com/science/nih-...treat-covid-19


    The problem like the French guy said is,, "you give them hydroxychloroquine and they get better; you don't give them hydroxychloroquine, and they get better. And the usual suspects die anyway, regardless."

    In my humble opinion,, it's more important when you start. If you wait until the patient is intubated and a day away from death,, >>> "we gave the patient hydroxychloroquine and it didn't help"

    Take it when your symptoms start and,, and yeah,, good chance that it will mitigate the worst of it. But why not include zinc ? Zinc has been a remedy for the common cold,, another corona virus,, forever.

    And a lot of old people are dificient in Vitamin D.

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