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Thread: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

  1. #126

    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    Quote Originally Posted by Daddy-YO View Post
    Getting covid-19 isn't so much a problem, 99+% will survive it. It's those on death's doorstep who are "most vulnerable" and ought to be safely isolated - voluntarily - until a good therapy or vaccine comes along.

    Let's cut the 99% a little slack and stop treating them like dunces to be manipulated.
    Hear, hear.
    Soy el chele mono.

  2. #127
    Viejo del Foro el duende grande's Avatar
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    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    Taiwan did just that in January and it worked fine. Third worldish countries like the USA sat on their thumbs till late March when they suddenly realized that they had turned an emergency into a disaster. A stitch in time saves 9. Among the things on life support is the stock market. The Fed is artificially keeping it up to not create panic. Personally, I would prefer panic to child psychology and the market is just going to crash after the election anyway.

    Meanwhile, at least 1/3 of the US population is high risk. Over 65 alone are 20% of the population. That is a lot of people to isolate, especially when you don't have enough testing, masks, tracking personnel, etc. Not to mention needing leaders, not CEOs and racially hypersensitive politicians.

    It is potentially worse in Nic. with large families living in small houses, rampant malnutrician, etc.
    I bought 10 more surgical masks today. I reuse them because my exposure is like 20 minutes to go to the super and then spray them with alcohol and air dry.

    This guy has some opinions on the use and timing of experimental medicines at about the middle of the tape.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nPDmElpj9wU

    The Chinese Century is going to be a bitch!

    "Support mental health or I'll break your head"

    ...with a 6 foot stick and mask and gloves....


  3. #128

    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    This sounds promising:

    A reliable therapeutic would be a game changer

    https://www.foxnews.com/science/covi...y-breakthrough

  4. #129

    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats


    " . . It is potentially worse in Nic. with large families living in small houses, rampant malnutrition, etc. . . ."


    Yes, but some pluses as well. Strong family support, a very young population that will be minimally affected, much less of an economic dislocation than we are suffering in the US. BCG vaccine might help,, another of those variables hard to pinpoint. Immediate access to pharmaceuticals that might help mitigate worst effects of virus, unlike the US .

    Sure, some people are going to get sick, and a few will die. If we eliminate the 4 NE states plus Illinois and Michigan, the percentage of deaths is well under 1%. These states include NYC, Newark, Detroit, Philly, Chicago, all home to "questionable" demographics. Nicaragua doesn't have the junkies, HIV problem, that these cities have.

    Most of the rest of the US is doing OK, >>> of course, depending on what you view as "acceptable" . Are 82 deaths per million acceptable (Arizona) ?


    That comes out to be .00008% . That is far less than deaths from any number of other causes.

    What's going on here ??

  5. #130

    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    Quote Originally Posted by KeyWestPirate View Post

    " . . It is potentially worse in Nic. with large families living in small houses, rampant malnutrition, etc. . . ."


    Yes, but some pluses as well. Strong family support, a very young population that will be minimally affected, much less of an economic dislocation than we are suffering in the US. BCG vaccine might help,, another of those variables hard to pinpoint. Immediate access to pharmaceuticals that might help mitigate worst effects of virus, unlike the US .

    Sure, some people are going to get sick, and a few will die. If we eliminate the 4 NE states plus Illinois and Michigan, the percentage of deaths is well under 1%. These states include NYC, Newark, Detroit, Philly, Chicago, all home to "questionable" demographics. Nicaragua doesn't have the junkies, HIV problem, that these cities have.

    Most of the rest of the US is doing OK, >>> of course, depending on what you view as "acceptable" . Are 82 deaths per million acceptable (Arizona) ?


    That comes out to be .00008% . That is far less than deaths from any number of other causes.

    What's going on here ??
    The malnutrition is a problem (there are no two ways around that), but aside from that one factor, Nicaragua has everything going in its favor. It's hotter there (bad for the virus). They get more sunshine (bad for the virus--both directly and because of the vitamin D). They crowd together in public transport and live in large family groups (good for herd immunity and robust immune systems). Yes, the virus will spread fast throughout the Nicaraguan population (at least those that aren't remote and isolated), but (excepting those who with malnutrition) 99.9% or better of the population will survive it, and most who get it won't even notice.
    Soy el chele mono.

  6. #131
    Viejo del Foro Daddy-YO's Avatar
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    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    Age of Coronavirus Deaths
    -- the data provided by New York City Health as of May 13, 2020:

    AGE ___ Deaths __ % total __ With underlying conditions
    0 - 17 _____9 _____ 0.1% _____6 = 67%
    18 - 44 ___601 ____ 3.9% ____476 = 79%
    45 - 64 __ 3,413 ___ 22.4% ___ 2,851 = 84%
    65 - 74 __ 3,788 ___ 24.9% ___ 2,801 = 74%
    75+ _____7,419 ___ 48.7% ___ 5,236 = 71%
    TOTAL__15,230 ___100% ___11,370 = 75%

    In NYC, in 2 months (Mar 14-May 13), 11,207 persons, age 65+, died of cov-19. That’s less than 1% (0.95%) of only the 65+ population living in NYC during the worst period at the epicenter with the highest mortality for the coronavirus pandemic in the USA. (Some 100,000 Italians fled Italy for NYC as the pandemic kicked off.) And please note, most (>71%) of these old NYers who died had "underlying conditions", so-called premorbidities.
    Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

    Americans 65 yrs old can expect to live 14 more years - on average, which means more than half live longer. Lots of healthy, active old farts.



    Quote Originally Posted by el duende grande View Post
    ... at least 1/3 of the US population is high risk. Over 65 alone are 20% of the population. That is a lot of people to isolate,
    Duende - I thought you were joking when I first read this. Have you so completely bought into this psy-fear distortion the media is peddling?

  7. #132

    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    Quote Originally Posted by Daddy-YO View Post
    Age of Coronavirus Deaths
    -- the data provided by New York City Health as of May 13, 2020:

    AGE ___ Deaths __ % total __ With underlying conditions
    0 - 17 _____9 _____ 0.1% _____6 = 67%
    18 - 44 ___601 ____ 3.9% ____476 = 79%
    45 - 64 __ 3,413 ___ 22.4% ___ 2,851 = 84%
    65 - 74 __ 3,788 ___ 24.9% ___ 2,801 = 74%
    75+ _____7,419 ___ 48.7% ___ 5,236 = 71%
    TOTAL__15,230 ___100% ___11,370 = 75%

    In NYC, in 2 months (Mar 14-May 13), 11,207 persons, age 65+, died of cov-19. That’s less than 1% (0.95%) of only the 65+ population living in NYC during the worst period at the epicenter with the highest mortality for the coronavirus pandemic in the USA. (Some 100,000 Italians fled Italy for NYC as the pandemic kicked off.) And please note, most (>71%) of these old NYers who died had "underlying conditions", so-called premorbidities.
    Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

    Americans 65 yrs old can expect to live 14 more years - on average, which means more than half live longer. Lots of healthy, active old farts.




    Duende - I thought you were joking when I first read this. Have you so completely bought into this psy-fear distortion the media is peddling?



    Well,, so much for my theory that it was junkies and HIV positive butt rangers who were driving up the death rate in NYC. Junkies don't live to be 75 + I guess that I owe an apology to someone.

    More on the Vitamin D correlation:


    https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/930152?nlid=135555_5322&src=WNL_mdplsnews_200515_m scpedit_wir&uac=122026BV&spon=17&impID=2382853&faf =1



    "There's also evidence from a
    meta-analysis of randomized clinical trials of vitamin D supplementation looking at acute respiratory tract infections (upper and lower). This was published in the British Medical Journal 2 years ago, showing that vitamin D supplementation was associated with a significant reduction in these respiratory tract infections. Overall, it was only a 12% reduction, but among the participants who had profound vitamin D deficiency at baseline (such as a blood level of 25-hydroxy-vitamin D of less than 10 ng/mL), there was a 70% lower risk of respiratory infection with vitamin D supplementation."

  8. #133
    Viejo del Foro el duende grande's Avatar
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    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    If "over 65" is a risk group, that is 20% of the population just by itself. So far the US has done poorly in isolating the nursing homes, much less the over 65 population at large. It can be done, but so far a long learning curve.

    NZ is another country with relative success. Being geographically isolated certainly helped, but strong leadership was what saved them. I particularly like the comment that government ministers don't have to talk to the press. If I were a US official I would mail the press an email and not let them waste my time. And a little accountability--the Health Minister went for a joy ride to the beach and was demoted. I'd like to see that mindset in the US.

    Covid isn't over yet, but the longer a country can control it the more chance they have of a vaccine or a cure coming.

    https://www.politico.eu/article/kiwi...ictions-rules/

    "Support mental health or I'll break your head"

    ...with a 6 foot stick and mask and gloves....


  9. #134
    Viejo del Foro Daddy-YO's Avatar
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    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    Quote Originally Posted by KeyWestPirate View Post
    This sounds promising:
    A reliable therapeutic would be a game changer
    https://www.foxnews.com/science/covi...y-breakthrough
    Hype? The demonstration of 100% inhibition of the SARS-CoV-2 virus was done in vitro, that is, in a test tube. It’s a human antibody, so maybe they’ll get a quick green flag on the clinical trials from the FDA. They screened some 15,000 infected individuals for the presence of anti-COVID-19 antibodies. They expect to offer a combo of 3 antibodies, this is the first,"as a prophylactic for those returning to work and as a therapeutic to those who have been exposed to SARS-CoV-2, to be administered as often as necessary, with each dose expected to provide antiviral protection for up to two months."

    This class of bio-pharmaceuticals are unbelievably expensive, manufactured by PCR. Of course, the gov’mint will foot the bill. And I’d guess, most of the winnings will go to China, since Sorrento’s CEO, president & chairman, a graduate of Fudan University in Shanghai, must be a member of the CCP.


    "The Chinese Century is going to be a bitch!" - el Duende Grande

  10. #135

    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    Quote Originally Posted by Daddy-YO View Post
    Hype? The demonstration of 100% inhibition of the SARS-CoV-2 virus was done in vitro, that is, in a test tube. It’s a human antibody, so maybe they’ll get a quick green flag on the clinical trials from the FDA. They screened some 15,000 infected individuals for the presence of anti-COVID-19 antibodies. They expect to offer a combo of 3 antibodies, this is the first,"as a prophylactic for those returning to work and as a therapeutic to those who have been exposed to SARS-CoV-2, to be administered as often as necessary, with each dose expected to provide antiviral protection for up to two months."

    This class of bio-pharmaceuticals are unbelievably expensive, manufactured by PCR. Of course, the gov’mint will foot the bill. And I’d guess, most of the winnings will go to China, since Sorrento’s CEO, president & chairman, a graduate of Fudan University in Shanghai, must be a member of the CCP.


    "The Chinese Century is going to be a bitch!" - el Duende Grande
    There may be some people who would benefit from this treatment, so I'm okay with someone developing it and making it available to those who want it. As for me, I opt to allow my immune system to create its own antibodies the traditional way (if I haven't already). As long as this isn't made mandatory or made part of our tax burden, then I'm okay with it...although I'll admit that I'm soured towards China at the moment.
    Soy el chele mono.

  11. #136

    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    Yes,, there is some "Warp Speed Public Private Initiative" going to get the vaccine in place before end of year.
    Under the management of the Secretary of Defense.

    Before end of year, probably should read,, >>>>> before the election.

    I agree on the nursing homes, that seemed such a simple task.
    We had a heads up early in Washington State as to what could happen.


    In other breaking news,, I finally got my Covid test and DID test positive for the anti bodies. I'm going to get it translated,, notarized, apostiled ($5 while you wait in Tucson),, laminate it and try to use it for an "Immunity Passport" Supposedly Humana paid for it,, but if not I'm only on the hook for $40.

    I'll post a picture of it later, still have to pick it up.

  12. #137
    Viejo del Foro el duende grande's Avatar
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    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5cYWd0N8nO4&t=1604s

    This guy goes over the long and expensive process of making a new vaccine. Part of the delay is that at each step a promising vaccine can flunk out despite its previous hopes. He also stated that when one is found there are govmints and organizations that dicker over how the vaccine is distributed and priced.

    "Support mental health or I'll break your head"

    ...with a 6 foot stick and mask and gloves....


  13. #138

    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    And apparently making a few doses is very different from making 350 million.
    That's a lot of shots!

    I wonder if they could make a combined flu / corona virus vaccine ? As long as Trump is president the US will get inoculated first. If Sleepy Joe is elected,, we'll get in line behind the 3rd World.


    More promising therapeutics will come on board quicker than a vaccine. Not a cure,, but a solid solution.

    Here's a shot of my test results. Humana paid for it,, but it would have been only $40 had they not.
    Attached Images Attached Images

  14. #139
    Viejo del Foro el duende grande's Avatar
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    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    the state of current science--antibodies positive, meaning unknown. It reminds me of my first CCW in AZ. It came with a note saying I have the right to carry a gun but no more right to shoot anyone than with out the permit!


    As far as Trump getting tests for Americans first, that is not how it works despite what Trump may claim. Various organizations dicker for a "fair" distribution, based on country of origin, state of epidemic in each country, number of deaths, etc. Price depends in part on ability to pay of each country, gotta keep it cheap for Africa, etc. Eneb if the vaccine comes from a particular country international organizations have a finger in it.
    And the number is not 350M, probably more like 3-4 B. And if the vaccine comes before the end of the pandemic is will probably be partially tested and not bright to give it to your whole population.
    Sars1 vaccine never arrived. When the disease went into decline they lost interest in continuing the research.

    "Support mental health or I'll break your head"

    ...with a 6 foot stick and mask and gloves....


  15. #140

    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    That may have been the way it used to work ,, under Obama, Kenyans get it first, but Trump has turned the world on it's head with his "America First" policies.

    In the perfect Trump world, Gringos get the vaccine first, Iran and Venezuela last.

    China will quickly reverse engineer our vaccine and sell it.

    This "One World" the Dims so love is BS wishful thinking.

    What the world needs is a virus that targets Stupid.

  16. #141

    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    And this might explain how Nicaraguans will weather the Covid storm with less death:

    https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020...-term-immunity

    Their immune systems are "woke" as AOK and her ilk are wont to say.
    The campo nicas are sick a lot,, but not sick enough to keep them from working.

    The kids constantly run around with snotty noses that they rub all over their faces.

    This constant testing of the immune system probably keeps it more resilient,, and also provides some herd culling.

    It would be nice if MINSA would tell us just exactly who is dying of "atypical pneumonia" .
    If they could honestly say,, " it's just old people " , it would quiet the fears of many.

  17. #142
    Active TRN Member RGV AG's Avatar
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    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    If it’s a monoclonal antibiotic like other biologics:
    1. It will cost a bazillion dollars per person, and
    2. By extension it will result in immunosuppression that will increase risk of other infections (hello there, TB)

    If it’s not a MAB, might as well move along, nothing to see here. But hey, I’m a skeptic by nature, so prove me wrong.
    What a friend of mine who teaches at a med school wrote about the Sorrento deal that was bandied about on Friday.

  18. #143

    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    Another article from Science telling specifically how the virus kills:

    https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020...dy-brain-toes#


    This is one nasty bug.

  19. #144
    TRN Science officer bill_bly_ca's Avatar
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    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    So today some interesting MINSA numbers dropped apparently

    Pneumonia deaths Jan 1 to May 2 - 84

    Pneumonia deaths May 3 to May 15 - 309

    Covid deaths still unchanged - 3 was it not?

    One of the Pneumonia victims was a Capo of the PN as well.

    These are just the ones "reported".

    On my SIL's husbands side - Under 65 - 2 Cousins - On the Over 65 - 3 all in last week One uncle one Aunt and another. All unexpectedly (Well I guess as unexpectedly as can be said for someone in their late 70's and 80's )

    My two Niece (One a Dr, one a medical records keeper) resigned from Militar this week as, apparently, they were not "allowed" to wear masks and gloves in non patient areas (e.g common areas, halls, cafeteria etc) within the building. I guess Rosario must have penned that memo.

    Apparently no one in Masaya is being allowed into stores without N95 masks and gloves - Problem is no one has N95 masks nor gloves.
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    Dude !!!.... Its a Canal !!! Can you Dig it ??

  20. #145

    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    The real problem they have is when MINSA reports substantially more recovered cases of COVID than actual cases.
    I can understand how "recovered" makes them look good.

    But, I can't be the only one who does the math ?

    A tiny fraction of Nicaraguans actually reads a newspaper.
    Most get their info from the TV.

    But, I suspect that most have figured out that they are being fed a "company" line.

  21. #146

    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    I can't help but notice a pattern that countries with totalitarian governments all seem to want to down-play the impact of this virus (China, North Korea, Nicaragua, etc), but that countries with republic governments all seem to want to up-play the impact of this virus.

    As I noticed this phenomenon, it occurred to me that there is no political benefit for a dictator (or whatever you want to call them) to show that the virus is killing people; all that showing this can do is to make them look weak to the superstitious populous. A dictator needs to appear to be in control at all times.

    On the other hand, there is a very strong political benefit for an elected executive to show that the virus is killing people; the more frightening the virus looks, the more power they can seize from the terrified masses in order to fight the supposed threat. And, when the virus inevitably passes, they can take credit for defeating it; politically, it's a win-win.
    Soy el chele mono.

  22. #147
    Viejo del Foro el duende grande's Avatar
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    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    A dictator does not have to admit mistakes, an elected leader can't afford to admit mistakes. Just play hero, blame somebody else, and kick the can down the road.

    When I worked for a public utitlity I learned of a management strategy called "management by crisis". You screw the pooch and let a problem grow to dangerous levels and then at the exact right moment you jump up and say "we have an emergency but I have a solution". So you fix the problem that never needed to be, pat yourself on the back for such great leadership, and then write it up in your proposal for your annual Merit Pay evaluation.

    I think the learning curve for Trump is that in pandemics you can't file bankruptcy and try again. Especially when the virus is smarter and faster than you, not to mention faster and smarter than your Hug-a-Chinaman competitors.

    "Support mental health or I'll break your head"

    ...with a 6 foot stick and mask and gloves....


  23. #148
    Active TRN Member RGV AG's Avatar
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    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    Free Zone company that I know of set up an expensive "decontamination stall", one of those misting things you walk through. They had it operational a couple of days when MINSA functionaries accompanied by what they were convinced to look like as goons, showed up and told them they were "inciting panic" and didn't have a permit to use something of that sort. They were told to remove it immediately or face closure. Sandinista labor unions, well there really aren't any other kind, are being told to tell workers in the free zones to not use masks.

    I usually divide Nicaragua glossy rumors by about .75, and if I do that to what I am hearing via whatsup and emails, the situation there is pretty bad. Lots of moneyed folks are getting private at home treatment and are not wanting to be counted among the infected. Same with poor folks. A friend in Tipitapa has told me that in her neighborhood there are at least several cases, but none that will venture out or seek treatment due to the fear.

    By the poor ass Latin American country standard, Nicaragua has pretty good health care and the Doc's there are not complete idiots and dolts like the majority are in a country like Mexico, so it is sad for me to see that folks are scared due to government intimidation.

  24. #149

    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    https://thehill.com/policy/defense/4...ecirculation=1


    The Hill has more democrats on their staff than republicans,, but their reporting has always seemed to be moderate and unbiased.

    Note the reference to zinc in the article.

    Now that we have killed off all the old people in nursing homes, and the NYC junkies, etc, people will be looking for a therapeutic. They will understand,, the virus is out there,, WILL be out there for some time, Yes,, I might catch it,, but probably won't die,, and what can I do to mitigate the worst of it?


    Even for the Blue Koolaid drinkers it will have to sink in eventually,, Trump is taking the Hydroxy + +,, has been taking it, there MUST be some reason for it,, and he's NOT dying from that "dangerous drug".

    From my standpoint,, I'd rather that the Never Trumper didn't take it.

    Rather,, like Kafka's condemned prisoner in The Penal Colony,, he will enjoy that delicious moment of enlightenment,

    "Could the MSM and the Never Trumpers have been wrong ??? Ohhh No,, Mr Bill"

    intubated and dying,, too late to ask for the Red Pill,, but cognizant ,, that the Hydroxy might have saved his life, just as the spike is driven into the skull, and he is rolled from the bed into a body bag.

    (With sincere apologies to Franz Kafka for the outrageous license).

  25. #150
    TRN Science officer bill_bly_ca's Avatar
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    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    This evening it hits home ..

    Don Tonito - Always a smile and a wave - He called our youngest, Kevin, "Come-on"... He worked with/for Dona Angelita the soup lady across the street . Back on our first visit in '04 Chilo would call Kevin say Come on back - Thinking that was his name - it stuck - No pre-existing condition - not to "large", but chunky, 57 yrs old..

    On the street where Chilo grew up a long time family friend (like 50+ years) passed as well.

    Apparently one of the 3 for SIL's husband is not dead yet - In a coma in Managua.

    Its bad
    ==================================================
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