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    Viejo del Foro Daddy-YO's Avatar
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    Default Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    Death rate = the total number of deaths in country to date due to covid-19 divided by its population, they're tabulated at https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ as deaths/million pop updated every day. The total case numbers for each country is a very unreliable stat since no one has tested its entire population for infection. S.Korea has tested 8,875 per million of its citizens and there are many countries that have done more, but none has reached even 2% of its population. Total deaths due to CoV-19 is a much more accurate indicator of the virus’ advance. These can be reasonably examined for differences North (winter-spring) vs South (summer), but clearly the Asian group (including Russia?) must be factored out. Member nations of this group clearly have better systems of social defense to CoV-19 (or they simply lie; what’s the opposite of Pravda?) It’s important to remember these data are just a snapshot in time (today) and all began at slightly different times and will continue to increase (or not change) until . . .

    World = 8.2/M___ USA = 25/M _____ Canada = 6/M ___
    Spain = 251/M ___ Italy = 254/M ___ France = 116/M __
    UK = 64/M ___ Ireland = 28/M____Germany = 16/M___
    Finland = 5/M___ Norway = 11/M___Sweden = 37/M__
    Holland = 96/M_____Austria = 21/M______

    China = 2/M ___ Malaysia = 2/M ___ Thailand = 0.3/M __
    Taiwan = 0.2/M __ S.Korea = 3/M __ Hong Kong = 0.5/M
    Singapore = 1/M___Indonesia = 0.2/M___ Japan = 0.5/M__
    Russia = 0.3/M____ Ukraine = 0.6/M

    India = 0.06/M __ Pakistan = 0.2/M__Bangladesh = 0.05/M
    Israel = 5/M____Egypt = 0.7/M____Saudi Arabia = 0.8/M
    Iran = 41/M____Turkey = 6/M _____ Iraq = 1/M ___
    Algeria = 3/M_____ Tunisia = 2/M______

    México = 0.5/M__ Guatemala = 0.1/M__ Honduras = 2/M_
    Costa Rica = 0.4/M___Cuba = 0.5/M___ Panama = 10/M_
    Colombia = 0.5/M ___ Peru = 2/M____ Ecuador = 10/M__
    Brazil = 2/M ___Chile = 1/M___ Argentina = 0.9/M___
    Paraguay = 0.4/M_____Bolivia = 0.9/M

    Australia = 1/M ____ New Zealand = 0.2/M_____
    One quarter of those who died in Australia of the virus were off cruise ships.

    Niger = 0.2/M __ Nigeria = 0.02/M__South Africa = 0.2/M_
    Congo = 0.04/M____Zambia = 0.05/M_____
    Zero CoV-19 deaths in Uganda, Belize, Sierra Leone

    This coronavirus is spread worldwide, but it seems not to thrive equally well in all climates. Countries south of the Tropic of Capricorn were experiencing the end of summer, generally hot & sunny and their death rates remain lower than those above the Tropic of Cancer (except for Asia & Russia, as mentioned). These molecular capsules of RNA could very well be vulnerable to heat & solar radiation. Where the concentration of these particles of evil dust are lower, the severity of infection will be less. Too many at once will overwhelm your immune system's ability to fight back. So in a hot, dry & sunny environment like Tucson, you could expect there to be fewer active on surfaces & airborne, versus indoors in AC like hospitals with several carriers shedding virus simultaneously.

    Panama & Ecuador are outliers in the Latin American group. Both are dollar based economies with busy international ports, where crews from around the world disembark to get laid and spread the joy.
    Last edited by Daddy-YO; 04-04-2020 at 10:00 PM.
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    Viejo del Foro el duende grande's Avatar
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    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    This website has good charts but is not updated daily.
    https://www.statista.com/statistics/...n-inhabitants/

    "Support mental health or I'll break your head"

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    Viejo del Foro Daddy-YO's Avatar
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    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    Who has done the most testing? Here's a snapshot. Norway has tested 2.1% of its population. Clearly when the testing was done is a factor not included. Plus whether there was follow-up surveillance of people the person who tested positive was in contact with.
    Note the stark difference of the countries that share the Iberian peninsula, esp. re. death rates.

    4/7/20 Cases ___deaths/M ___tests/M ___cases/M
    Norway 6,086 ___16 ______21,009 _____1,123
    Switzerland 22,253 __95 ___19,346 _____2,571
    Israel 9,248 ______8 ______13,557 _____1,068
    Austria 12,639 ___27 ______12,795 _____1.403
    Italy 135,586 ____283_____12,495 ______2,243
    Australia 5,988 ___2 ______12,184 _______235
    Portugal 12,442 __34 ______11,892 ______1,220
    Germany 107,663 __24 _____10,962 _____1,285
    New Zealand 1,210 __0.2 ____9,721 _______251
    S. Korea 10,384 ___4 _______9,310 _______203
    Canada 17,897 ___10 _______9,181 _______474
    Spain 141,942 ___300 ______7,593 ______3,036
    Belgium 22,194 __176 ______6,947 ______1,915
    USA 400,412 _____39 ______6,271 ______1,210
    Holland 19,580 ___123 ______5,053 ______1,143
    UK 55,242 _______91 ______3,929 ________814
    France 109,069 ___158 ______3,436 ______1,671
    Last edited by Daddy-YO; 04-07-2020 at 10:19 PM. Reason: friggin formatting without spreadsheet

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    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    Someday when we get past the Blame China, blame WHO stage they will look into who in CDC sabotaged American health. and don't stop there, where was the "intelligence community" informing us how bad it was in China?

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    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    Quote Originally Posted by el duende grande View Post
    where was the "intelligence community" informing us how bad it was in China?

    The Guardian
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    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    "...derail the US economy, unless tough action were taken immediately..." And yet the economy was derailed. Monday morning quarterbacking will continue for the next century. There are other articles discussing unheeded warnings going back through multiple administrations.

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    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    Quote Originally Posted by bill_bly_ca View Post
    They are part of the media Greek chorus wailing, "Never Trump! Never Trump!"

    It is unfortunate that their rabidity distorts otherwise good journalism. Nonetheless the truth got slipped into their bit:
    In January, two days after the first Navarro memo, Trump placed restrictions on travel from China but did not totally close it down, as he has repeatedly claimed.
    So T did act on it. The "but" onward is a snark cause T let in American citizens returning from China, which they don't bother explaining.

    Trump's style is to push back on consul. If it's good & worthwhile it will overcome his objections. His "downplaying the seriousness of CoV-19" is good psychology while still taking measures. Why alarm the public more than they already are from listening to the doomsayers that seem to own the airwaves?

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    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    The absolute bunk of the MINSA numbers can only be reflected by Cuba's data - IIRC Cuba has reported 3 of their cases coming from Nicaragua/Managua. On face value that means if there were 9 cases in Nicaragua (6 as per yesterdays numbers) 3 of them chose to fly to Havana and avoid the count.

    Absolute crap.

    Probably the best numbers to look for on the MINSA data 3 or 4 months from now is the Pneumonia deaths rather than C-19

    On a lot of the Chiseme FB lists there are unsubstantiated reports / videos of bodies being loaded in to Pengas for tossing at sea, vans arriving to markets with white suited morticians and body bags and the like.

    I would bet the country is in the 10 to 12 case a day relm soon to hit the 100's
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    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    Plagues - Check
    Locust - Check

    What is next


    Forbes
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    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    Another new case reported yesterday, the difference being is first that they are not claiming was imported, transmitted from 1 of the people they say imported, but some news asking imported from where as the person has not been out of the Country.

    Some group donated 26,000 rapid result tests. https://confidencial.com.ni/secretis...-en-nicaragua/
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    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    This is an interesting story:

    https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle...333&faf=1#vp_2


    "All 18 recovered . . . . "

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    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    We just have to wait for the comparison number for deaths per million for Ontario, Michigan, Mississippi, Louisiana, Nicaragua and its cohorts to see what is up.
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    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    This is a quote/ditty is typically associated to Winston Churchill and I have not verified it, but it goes like this

    WC: Madame - Would spend the night with me for 1,000,000 dollars
    Lady: (Blushing) Why yes I would
    WC: Would you spend the night with me for $10
    Lady: What sort of Woman do you think I am
    WC: Madame we have already determined your morals, now we are just negotiating price.

    Not sure if you see the similarity, but that is what occurring with respect to economic activity and death rate at the moment.
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    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    Quote Originally Posted by bill_bly_ca View Post
    This is a quote/ditty is typically associated to Winston Churchill and I have not verified it, but it goes like this

    WC: Madame - Would spend the night with me for 1,000,000 dollars
    Lady: (Blushing) Why yes I would
    WC: Would you spend the night with me for $10
    Lady: What sort of Woman do you think I am
    WC: Madame we have already determined your morals, now we are just negotiating price.

    Not sure if you see the similarity, but that is what occurring with respect to economic activity and death rate at the moment.

    Some hard choices to be made,, for sure.

    Countries like India and Bangladesh, Africa, and hopefully to a lesser extent, Nicaragua, see the long term benefit of a population decrease,, especially if it's a less productive segment of the population. It's losing Abuela vs the suffering of a significant part of the country.

    If you have the resources,, like the US,, maybe you can save Abuela and mitigate the damage to the general population by sending out government checks. Vamos a ver. Many countries are not going to be able to pull that off.

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    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    I reiterate a point I made here last night, compare these Iberian neighbors,

    4/7/20 _____Cases ___deaths/M ___tests/M ___cases/M
    Spain_____ 141,942 ____300 _______7,593 _____3,036
    Portugal ____12,442 _____34 ______11,892 _____1,220

    Portugal has performed many more tests on their people, yet has only a third the number of cases per million citizens, and a tenth the death rate. Many factors contribute to the difference, but now I want to emphasize one I hadn’t heard mentioned before.

    Namely, Portugal gives all newborns the BCG vaccine; Spain, like Italy and the USA, does not recommend giving babies BCG shots. The BCG vaccine alters a person's immune system; it is given to infants to prevent TB where it’s common.

    It is required here in Nicaragua, but many born at home in rural areas often skip it as inconvenient (it must be given to a healthy child soon after birth.) Lord knows what % of the population here have had it.

    Let me add: S.Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, & Malaysia - it is given at birth and again at age 12

    Routinely given at birth in Hong Kong, Thailand, India, (Pakistan), Israel, South Africa;

    In the former Soviet Union, "it was given regularly throughout life."

    Not in Australia & New Zealand, UK, Canada, Germany, Holland, (France), (Norway)
    Last edited by Daddy-YO; 04-08-2020 at 03:30 PM.

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    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    For those companies deemed hardy enough to survive the Panicdemic, stock prices are a bargain and people should buy. The trick is knowing which companies those are.

    I bought airline tickets for a trip to the UK that were canceled, and they're taking their sweet time on refunds. I got an email the other day offering a 20% credit toward a re-schedule (i.e. book a flight at my old price plus 20% more, like upgrading to first class, or a more expensive destination). It was tempting but how do I know the airline will still exist when tourism comes back to life? It's like the game show where the contestant can keep the new microwave oven, or see what's behind door number two, which might be nothing or might be worth more than a microwave. I opted for the cash refund.

  17. #17

    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    Quote Originally Posted by Daddy-YO View Post
    I reiterate a point I made here last night, compare these Iberian neighbors,

    4/7/20 _____Cases ___deaths/M ___tests/M ___cases/M
    Spain_____ 141,942 ____300 _______7,593 _____3,036
    Portugal ____12,442 _____34 ______11,892 _____1,220

    Portugal has performed many more tests on their people, yet has only a third the number of cases per million citizens, and a tenth the death rate. Many factors contribute to the difference, but now I want to emphasize one I hadn’t heard mentioned before.

    Namely, Portugal gives all newborns the BCG vaccine; Spain, like Italy and the USA, does not recommend giving babies BCG shots. The BCG vaccine alters a person's immune system; it is given to infants to prevent TB where it’s common.

    It is required here in Nicaragua, but many born at home in rural areas often skip it as inconvenient (it must be given to a healthy child soon after birth.) Lord knows what % of the population here have had it.

    Let me add: S.Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, & Malaysia - it is given at birth and again at age 12

    Routinely given at birth in Hong Kong, Thailand, India, (Pakistan), Israel, South Africa;

    In the former Soviet Union, "it was given regularly throughout life."

    Not in Australia & New Zealand, UK, Canada, Germany, Holland, (France), (Norway)


    Unbelievable.


    So,, today,, antibody tests by the millions available in May;

    Convalescent serum to be used;

    Invasive nature of ventilators may have actually killed some patients;


    And plenty of mainstream Fake News:

    https://www.foxnews.com/media/cbs-ne...e-crying-video

    https://www.foxnews.com/politics/def...-reports-false

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    Viejo del Foro el duende grande's Avatar
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    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    Creepy bug. some research says it enters the blood cells, damages the ability to transport oxygen and releases iron compounds that are toxic to lung tissue. Bacterial pneumonia requires 2 days on ventilator but wuflu can take 2 weeks and often doesn't save the patient.

    Failed/failing countries will suffer the most, go figure. The total deaths will not be enough to undue their overpopulation but the economic carnage will be devastating. The prospect to export surplus population will diminish. Maybe we will see more Somalias with anarchy and warlordism.

    Trumpster screwed the pooch, but I think the public halfass knows he did better than the other guys would have done. Sad world we live in. Anyway, he needs to keep up with his FDRish fireside chats and salvage what he can. If he stays in office he needs to investigate and purge CDC and the intelligence services that set him up. China and WHO bashing is fine for starters, but it is the nation state's responsibility to protect its own.

    "Support mental health or I'll break your head"

    ...with a 6 foot stick and mask and gloves....


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    Viejo del Foro Daddy-YO's Avatar
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    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    Quote Originally Posted by KeyWestPirate View Post
    Unbelievable.
    Get ready for a tour of Ripley's museum. The BCG vaccine is required to be given given to newborns in all LAm countries (Mex->Arg) except ECUADOR. My one month old son got the shot here in Leon. In the US we could NOT do the normal TB test for kindergarden. Sure some in the LAm campo will never make it to a clinic. Many there live "free" of society; tho less & less in modern times. Check out all the tan bits where the BCG vaccine is given on the atlas: Most of the world; more specifically those parts least hurt by the pandemic.


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    TRN Science officer bill_bly_ca's Avatar
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    Default Re: Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

    The one good thing is that it has given the regulatory bodies a good swift kick in the pants.

    A local company was lumbering along making 3D printed odds and sods

    Flash back to 2 and a half weeks ago they decide to fabricate face shields

    Face shields approved in hours by health Canada

    Government backed secure loans secured new tooling

    Local incubator (Communitech) supplied mentor ship and a contact of a facility to lease on something like a day and managed to get a bunch of contractors on board to get their facility up in a flash

    Now they are making something like 50,000 masks a day, employ 100 ppl and are looking for 100 more.

    Just some Jaw dropping stats for an organisation that made nothing medical 20 days ago.

    Canadian Shield

    Same is happening with masks as Canada has one of the few mills on the planet that can make N95 grade base elements.

    Harmac Pacific


    It is probably a good thing that a lot of the China specific supply chain for many things will be revisited.

    Funny story - in January Canada sent 16 tons of medical grade equipment (Gloves, garbs, masks) to china at the height of theeir ourbreak. Last week the first shipment of 7.5 tons Chinese goods arrived(as donation) to repay the January donation with the balance and then some next week.
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