Pandemic: geography, politics & death rate stats

[Daddy-YO]

Death rate = the total number of deaths in country to date due to covid-19 divided by its population, they're tabulated at https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ as deaths/million pop updated every day. The total case numbers for each country is a very unreliable stat since no one has tested its entire population for infection. S.Korea has tested 8,875 per million of its citizens and there are many countries that have done more, but none has reached even 2% of its population. Total deaths due to CoV-19 is a much more accurate indicator of the virus’ advance. These can be reasonably examined for differences North (winter-spring) vs South (summer), but clearly the Asian group (including Russia?) must be factored out. Member nations of this group clearly have better systems of social defense to CoV-19 (or they simply lie; what’s the opposite of Pravda?) It’s important to remember these data are just a snapshot in time (today) and all began at slightly different times and will continue to increase (or not change) until . . .

World = 8.2/M___ USA = 25/M _____ Canada = 6/M ___
Spain = 251/M ___ Italy = 254/M ___ France = 116/M __
UK = 64/M ___ Ireland = 28/M____Germany = 16/M___
Finland = 5/M___ Norway = 11/M___Sweden = 37/M__
Holland = 96/M_____Austria = 21/M______

China = 2/M ___ Malaysia = 2/M ___ Thailand = 0.3/M __
Taiwan = 0.2/M __ S.Korea = 3/M __ Hong Kong = 0.5/M
Singapore = 1/M___Indonesia = 0.2/M___ Japan = 0.5/M__
Russia = 0.3/M____ Ukraine = 0.6/M

India = 0.06/M __ Pakistan = 0.2/M__Bangladesh = 0.05/M
Israel = 5/M____Egypt = 0.7/M____Saudi Arabia = 0.8/M
Iran = 41/M____Turkey = 6/M _____ Iraq = 1/M ___
Algeria = 3/M_____ Tunisia = 2/M______

México = 0.5/M__ Guatemala = 0.1/M__ Honduras = 2/M_
Costa Rica = 0.4/M___Cuba = 0.5/M___ Panama = 10/M_
Colombia = 0.5/M ___ Peru = 2/M____ Ecuador = 10/M__
Brazil = 2/M ___Chile = 1/M___ Argentina = 0.9/M___
Paraguay = 0.4/M_____Bolivia = 0.9/M

Australia = 1/M ____ New Zealand = 0.2/M_____
One quarter of those who died in Australia of the virus were off cruise ships.

Niger = 0.2/M __ Nigeria = 0.02/M__South Africa = 0.2/M_
Congo = 0.04/M____Zambia = 0.05/M_____
Zero CoV-19 deaths in Uganda, Belize, Sierra Leone

This coronavirus is spread worldwide, but it seems not to thrive equally well in all climates. Countries south of the Tropic of Capricorn were experiencing the end of summer, generally hot & sunny and their death rates remain lower than those above the Tropic of Cancer (except for Asia & Russia, as mentioned). These molecular capsules of RNA could very well be vulnerable to heat & solar radiation. Where the concentration of these particles of evil dust are lower, the severity of infection will be less. Too many at once will overwhelm your immune system's ability to fight back. So in a hot, dry & sunny environment like Tucson, you could expect there to be fewer active on surfaces & airborne, versus indoors in AC like hospitals with several carriers shedding virus simultaneously.

Panama & Ecuador are outliers in the Latin American group. Both are dollar based economies with busy international ports, where crews from around the world disembark to get laid and spread the joy.

[el duende grande]

This website has good charts but is not updated daily.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/...n-inhabitants/

[Daddy-YO]

Who has done the most testing? Here's a snapshot. Norway has tested 2.1% of its population. Clearly when the testing was done is a factor not included. Plus whether there was follow-up surveillance of people the person who tested positive was in contact with.
Note the stark difference of the countries that share the Iberian peninsula, esp. re. death rates.

4/7/20 Cases ___deaths/M ___tests/M ___cases/M
Norway 6,086 ___16 ______21,009 _____1,123
Switzerland 22,253 __95 ___19,346 _____2,571
Israel 9,248 ______8 ______13,557 _____1,068
Austria 12,639 ___27 ______12,795 _____1.403
Italy 135,586 ____283_____12,495 ______2,243
Australia 5,988 ___2 ______12,184 _______235
Portugal 12,442 __34 ______11,892 ______1,220
Germany 107,663 __24 _____10,962 _____1,285
New Zealand 1,210 __0.2 ____9,721 _______251
S. Korea 10,384 ___4 _______9,310 _______203
Canada 17,897 ___10 _______9,181 _______474
Spain 141,942 ___300 ______7,593 ______3,036
Belgium 22,194 __176 ______6,947 ______1,915
USA 400,412 _____39 ______6,271 ______1,210
Holland 19,580 ___123 ______5,053 ______1,143
UK 55,242 _______91 ______3,929 ________814
France 109,069 ___158 ______3,436 ______1,671

[el duende grande]

Someday when we get past the Blame China, blame WHO stage they will look into who in CDC sabotaged American health. and don't stop there, where was the "intelligence community" informing us how bad it was in China?

[bill_bly_ca]

where was the "intelligence community" informing us how bad it was in China?

The Guardian

[Jonh]

"...derail the US economy, unless tough action were taken immediately..." And yet the economy was derailed. Monday morning quarterbacking will continue for the next century. There are other articles discussing unheeded warnings going back through multiple administrations.

[KeyWestPirate]

Derailed for sure,, but for how long? Dow is climbing back up. Someone smarter than me knows something and is betting on a positive future.

Trump has been talking about "repairing infrastructure" forever. He'll need to win back the house in November, and keep the senate.

Can he? Will he? A brave new world awaits us.

Some of the nominally liberal sites are talking about how Sleepy Joe has already lost. CNN is fighting for its life. Eclipsed by MSNBC (How did that happen?) , it's current relevance is limited to "Gotcha" and shameless Trump bashing.

I'll tell you one thing this pandemic was: It was a huge wakeup call as to the relevance of a strong economy.

A few of the true believers like Fredo, AOK, CryingChuck, and CrazyNancy might still believe that the secret to a vibrant economy is forgiving student loans, free tuition, banning cows who fart, bashing Amazon,, and medicare for all, but I suspect, in November, it's going to be,,

Where have you gone, Joe DiMaggio
A nation turns its lonely eyes to you

We've been here before

And Nicaragua?? Covid 19 will burn through,, a lot of people will get sick, and quite a few will die. The economy will take a hit,, but the rum, tobacco, beans and coffee will still be in demand. Life in the campo will continue on much as before.

Things will settle down, the missionaries and the brigadistas will return,, as will the tourists, slowly.

[bill_bly_ca]

We just have to wait for the comparison number for deaths per million for Ontario, Michigan, Mississippi, Louisiana, Nicaragua and its cohorts to see what is up.

[Daddy-YO]

The Guardian

They are part of the media Greek chorus wailing, "Never Trump! Never Trump!"

It is unfortunate that their rabidity distorts otherwise good journalism. Nonetheless the truth got slipped into their bit:

In January, two days after the first Navarro memo, Trump placed restrictions on travel from China but did not totally close it down, as he has repeatedly claimed.

So T did act on it. The "but" onward is a snark cause T let in American citizens returning from China, which they don't bother explaining.

Trump's style is to push back on consul. If it's good & worthwhile it will overcome his objections. His "downplaying the seriousness of CoV-19" is good psychology while still taking measures. Why alarm the public more than they already are from listening to the doomsayers that seem to own the airwaves?

[Little Corn Tom]

And Nicaragua?? Covid 19 will burn through,, a lot of people will get sick, and quite a few will die. The economy will take a hit,, but the rum, tobacco, beans and coffee will still be in demand. Life in the campo will continue on much as before.

Things will settle down, the missionaries and the brigadistas will return,, as will the tourists, slowly.

If ever there was a time ripe for change, it will be next year or so. I hope that some competent individual will take on the Ortega's and prevail. Sadly, I do not believe it will happen with this culture and this populace.

[Daddy-YO]

And Nicaragua?? Covid 19 will burn through,, a lot of people will get sick, and quite a few will die. The economy will take a hit,, but the rum, tobacco, beans and coffee will still be in demand. Life in the campo will continue on much as before. Things will settle down, the missionaries and the brigadistas will return,, as will the tourists, slowly.

Hey Pirate, don't be surprised if your forecast is wrong. All Nicas, within a month after birth, are required to get BCG shots. The vaccine boosts the immune system for life. It is aimed to prevent tuberculosis, but has also been used for immunotherapy. My boy got the shot and it wrecked havoc with the TB test required by NJ schools; we had to travel a ways to get a direct blood test done. It's a factor - call it anecdotal if you feel Fauci-like this AM, because a direct correlation has not been proven in clinical trials yet. Combine that with a high probability of much lower virus concentrations in the environment due to higher temperatures and more UV in the tropics. This is something that has been repeatedly shown with flu viruses, the winter-summer variance.

Add shrimp & lobster tails to your list of Nica exports, plus the incredible in-country cornucopia of produce grown year round. Mostly staying home now I eat superb papaya, watermelon, mangoes, avocados - it's all here, the marketplaces haven't changed here, in fact they're overflowing. Fresh fish brought by the door, shrimp, pork, chicken, beef, (garobo en el campo)... but no bat (sorry Bill)

[el duende grande]

The stock market is a bubble based on the temporary upswing of Trump policies and the subjective factor of TES (Trump euphoria syndrome). Those speculating in the market do so at their own risk. The real tragedy for society is when pensions crash because pension managers have invested poorly.

Anybody seen their govmint check yet? Only 1/4 of the 2T goes to peons, the rest to business and government. National debt will skyrocket to pay for government programs.

Like my grandma said "The rich get richer and the poor have babies". With a 2020 addon, "except white people".

A lot of the casualties from the 2008 recession never recovered. My hometown is littered with empty commercial space to this day. The whole fake recovery was based on debt, public and private with the Reaganesque assumption that economic growth with lead to more taxes and someday pay off the debt. Only good way to pay down the national debt is to unleash the inflation bomb.

The US elections are as tight as ever, the only hope is that the majority party runs a bad slate. Gee, that's where we were before chicomvirus!

Derailed for sure,, but for how long? Dow is climbing back up. Someone smarter than me knows something and is betting on a positive future.

Trump has been talking about "repairing infrastructure" forever. He'll need to win back the house in November, and keep the senate.

Can he? Will he? A brave new world awaits us.

Some of the nominally liberal sites are talking about how Sleepy Joe has already lost. CNN is fighting for its life. Eclipsed by MSNBC (How did that happen?) , it's current relevance is limited to "Gotcha" and shameless Trump bashing.

I'll tell you one thing this pandemic was: It was a huge wakeup call as to the relevance of a strong economy.

A few of the true believers like Fredo, AOK, CryingChuck, and CrazyNancy might still believe that the secret to a vibrant economy is forgiving student loans, free tuition, banning cows who fart, bashing Amazon,, and medicare for all, but I suspect, in November, it's going to be,,

Where have you gone, Joe DiMaggio
A nation turns its lonely eyes to you

We've been here before

And Nicaragua?? Covid 19 will burn through,, a lot of people will get sick, and quite a few will die. The economy will take a hit,, but the rum, tobacco, beans and coffee will still be in demand. Life in the campo will continue on much as before.

Things will settle down, the missionaries and the brigadistas will return,, as will the tourists, slowly.

[bill_bly_ca]

This is a quote/ditty is typically associated to Winston Churchill and I have not verified it, but it goes like this

WC: Madame - Would spend the night with me for 1,000,000 dollars
Lady: (Blushing) Why yes I would
WC: Would you spend the night with me for $10
Lady: What sort of Woman do you think I am
WC: Madame we have already determined your morals, now we are just negotiating price.

Not sure if you see the similarity, but that is what occurring with respect to economic activity and death rate at the moment.

[KeyWestPirate]

This is a quote/ditty is typically associated to Winston Churchill and I have not verified it, but it goes like this

WC: Madame - Would spend the night with me for 1,000,000 dollars
Lady: (Blushing) Why yes I would
WC: Would you spend the night with me for $10
Lady: What sort of Woman do you think I am
WC: Madame we have already determined your morals, now we are just negotiating price.

Not sure if you see the similarity, but that is what occurring with respect to economic activity and death rate at the moment.

Some hard choices to be made,, for sure.

Countries like India and Bangladesh, Africa, and hopefully to a lesser extent, Nicaragua, see the long term benefit of a population decrease,, especially if it's a less productive segment of the population. It's losing Abuela vs the suffering of a significant part of the country.

If you have the resources,, like the US,, maybe you can save Abuela and mitigate the damage to the general population by sending out government checks. Vamos a ver. Many countries are not going to be able to pull that off.

[Daddy-YO]

I reiterate a point I made here last night, compare these Iberian neighbors,

4/7/20 _____Cases ___deaths/M ___tests/M ___cases/M
Spain_____ 141,942 ____300 _______7,593 _____3,036
Portugal ____12,442 _____34 ______11,892 _____1,220

Portugal has performed many more tests on their people, yet has only a third the number of cases per million citizens, and a tenth the death rate. Many factors contribute to the difference, but now I want to emphasize one I hadn’t heard mentioned before.

Namely, Portugal gives all newborns the BCG vaccine; Spain, like Italy and the USA, does not recommend giving babies BCG shots. The BCG vaccine alters a person's immune system; it is given to infants to prevent TB where it’s common.

It is required here in Nicaragua, but many born at home in rural areas often skip it as inconvenient (it must be given to a healthy child soon after birth.) Lord knows what % of the population here have had it.

Let me add: S.Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, & Malaysia - it is given at birth and again at age 12

Routinely given at birth in Hong Kong, Thailand, India, (Pakistan), Israel, South Africa;

In the former Soviet Union, "it was given regularly throughout life."

Not in Australia & New Zealand, UK, Canada, Germany, Holland, (France), (Norway)

[Jonh]

For those companies deemed hardy enough to survive the Panicdemic, stock prices are a bargain and people should buy. The trick is knowing which companies those are.

I bought airline tickets for a trip to the UK that were canceled, and they're taking their sweet time on refunds. I got an email the other day offering a 20% credit toward a re-schedule (i.e. book a flight at my old price plus 20% more, like upgrading to first class, or a more expensive destination). It was tempting but how do I know the airline will still exist when tourism comes back to life? It's like the game show where the contestant can keep the new microwave oven, or see what's behind door number two, which might be nothing or might be worth more than a microwave. I opted for the cash refund.

[bill_bly_ca]

The one good thing is that it has given the regulatory bodies a good swift kick in the pants.

A local company was lumbering along making 3D printed odds and sods

Flash back to 2 and a half weeks ago they decide to fabricate face shields

Face shields approved in hours by health Canada

Government backed secure loans secured new tooling

Local incubator (Communitech) supplied mentor ship and a contact of a facility to lease on something like a day and managed to get a bunch of contractors on board to get their facility up in a flash

Now they are making something like 50,000 masks a day, employ 100 ppl and are looking for 100 more.

Just some Jaw dropping stats for an organisation that made nothing medical 20 days ago.

Canadian Shield

Same is happening with masks as Canada has one of the few mills on the planet that can make N95 grade base elements.

Harmac Pacific


It is probably a good thing that a lot of the China specific supply chain for many things will be revisited.

Funny story - in January Canada sent 16 tons of medical grade equipment (Gloves, garbs, masks) to china at the height of theeir ourbreak. Last week the first shipment of 7.5 tons Chinese goods arrived(as donation) to repay the January donation with the balance and then some next week.

[KeyWestPirate]

I reiterate a point I made here last night, compare these Iberian neighbors,

4/7/20 _____Cases ___deaths/M ___tests/M ___cases/M
Spain_____ 141,942 ____300 _______7,593 _____3,036
Portugal ____12,442 _____34 ______11,892 _____1,220

Portugal has performed many more tests on their people, yet has only a third the number of cases per million citizens, and a tenth the death rate. Many factors contribute to the difference, but now I want to emphasize one I hadn’t heard mentioned before.

Namely, Portugal gives all newborns the BCG vaccine; Spain, like Italy and the USA, does not recommend giving babies BCG shots. The BCG vaccine alters a person's immune system; it is given to infants to prevent TB where it’s common.

It is required here in Nicaragua, but many born at home in rural areas often skip it as inconvenient (it must be given to a healthy child soon after birth.) Lord knows what % of the population here have had it.

Let me add: S.Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, & Malaysia - it is given at birth and again at age 12

Routinely given at birth in Hong Kong, Thailand, India, (Pakistan), Israel, South Africa;

In the former Soviet Union, "it was given regularly throughout life."

Not in Australia & New Zealand, UK, Canada, Germany, Holland, (France), (Norway)

Unbelievable.


So,, today,, antibody tests by the millions available in May;

Convalescent serum to be used;

Invasive nature of ventilators may have actually killed some patients;


And plenty of mainstream Fake News:

https://www.foxnews.com/media/cbs-ne...e-crying-video

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/def...-reports-false

[el duende grande]

Creepy bug. some research says it enters the blood cells, damages the ability to transport oxygen and releases iron compounds that are toxic to lung tissue. Bacterial pneumonia requires 2 days on ventilator but wuflu can take 2 weeks and often doesn't save the patient.

Failed/failing countries will suffer the most, go figure. The total deaths will not be enough to undue their overpopulation but the economic carnage will be devastating. The prospect to export surplus population will diminish. Maybe we will see more Somalias with anarchy and warlordism.

Trumpster screwed the pooch, but I think the public halfass knows he did better than the other guys would have done. Sad world we live in. Anyway, he needs to keep up with his FDRish fireside chats and salvage what he can. If he stays in office he needs to investigate and purge CDC and the intelligence services that set him up. China and WHO bashing is fine for starters, but it is the nation state's responsibility to protect its own.

[Daddy-YO]

Unbelievable.

Get ready for a tour of Ripley's museum. The BCG vaccine is required to be given given to newborns in all LAm countries (Mex->Arg) except ECUADOR. My one month old son got the shot here in Leon. In the US we could NOT do the normal TB test for kindergarden. Sure some in the LAm campo will never make it to a clinic. Many there live "free" of society; tho less & less in modern times. Check out all the tan bits where the BCG vaccine is given on the atlas: Most of the world; more specifically those parts least hurt by the pandemic.

[KeyWestPirate]

It's so complicated.
Neither Italy nor Germany use the BCG vaccine, according to Wikipedia. Spain is a mixed bag. Used earlier, but no more.

Italy's mortality rate is 10%; Germany is 1%

Germany's onset was later, those affected initially were younger, and Germany tested and, then traced and isolated suspected cases.

There was also hint in the article suggesting a difference in the quality of the medical support between Germany and Italy.

We should know in a month or less. It would be great if the vaccine has some effect.

Sick is one thing,, dead is completely another.

[Daddy-YO]

It's so complicated.
Neither Italy nor Germany use the BCG vaccine, according to Wikipedia. Spain is a mixed bag. Used earlier, but no more.

Spain uses BCG in a few special cases. Portugal gave it to all newborns, across the population.
Italy's mortality rate is 302/M; Germany is 31/M.

Of course there are other factors The speed of testing, isolating carriers, and monitoring those in contact makes a big difference. Germany is borderline authoritarian. Merkel has been chancellor since 2005. Germans respect and listen to authority. Germans love work & isolation. Italy's politics and government is much more chaotic. Italians have to be forced to obey authority. Italians love each other, parties and big, slow family dinners.

Not that they couldn't have done better. In Vo where the first Italian died of CoV-19 the gov't shut off access to that town of 3,300 and tested everyone. 3% had it; they were isolated. They recovered (no hospital) and there was no further spread, nor another death. But it had already spread too widely in Northern Italy to contain.

[KeyWestPirate]

Will public transportation turn out to be a major factor in spreading the virus ?

[el duende grande]

Lotta dirty surfaces to touch and stale air in public transit. I've been on standing-only buses in Nic., rush hour subway in cdmx, and commuting with crack whores in L.A.
If you can't go on non-rush hour, wear a mask, and wash your hands it is a bad idea.

[cookshow]

Another case confirmed today for total of 7, Costa Rica has over 550 cases with 3 deaths, Honduras 380 cases with over 20 deaths, El Sal has over 100 cases with 6 deaths. Maybe ignoring the virus is working for Nica, yeah right.