Herd Immunity at What Cost ?

[KeyWestPirate]

An article in The Atlantic suggests that herd immunity might be achieved in a population at a 20% overall infection.


https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...avirus/614035/

This article requires focus,, don't get sidetracked with the chaos theory articulated (a butterfly flaps its wings in Tucson, and it rains for three days straight in Leon). It really doesn't have anything to do with the author's views on herd immunity and the implications.

NYC is testing positive for antibodies at surprising rates,, especially in some minority neighborhoods. Herd immunity ?

The 20% sounds pretty good, compared to earlier predictions of 60-70%, but at a 1% mortality rate, we would be looking at 700,000 deaths in the US alone. I don't believe the mortality rate IS that high, but that seems to be the accepted overall number.

In retrospect it might have made more sense to lock down the seniors, put them in hotels and motels, or re-activate a surplus military base,, a Rambo Leisure World,, isolated from the general population. Fall out at 0500, Taps at 8PM

Then,, throw rock concerts, Covid parties, etc, for the remainder, whose mortality rate is a fraction of that for those over 65.
In a month or six weeks, the virus would burn out.

How many would die?
I don't know, but if you look at Table 1 in the link below,
of the 114K deaths, over 90K were in the 65 + demographic

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/c...ekly/index.htm

New York suffered over 32,000 deaths ; Florida only 4500 so far.
Populations are similar,, within a couple million.


Florida, Texas and California have a lot of catching up to do.

Nicaragua infections are supposed to peak at the end of this month.

[Jonh]

We're a long-ass way from 20%. It looks like we're 1%, but do they count it as two cases when you test positive, then go back later and test positive again?

I consider The Atlantic to be fake media, by the way.

[KeyWestPirate]

We're a long-ass way from 20%. It looks like we're 1%, but do they count it as two cases when you test positive, then go back later and test positive again?

I consider The Atlantic to be fake media, by the way.

They are somewhat to the left of AOK, it's true.

They've been around since I was a boy,, used to be a respected literary effort.

[el duende grande]

Population of Taiwan 24 million, total cases 451, deaths 7. No shutdown, net exporter of PPE
America needs to learn from its betters.

[KeyWestPirate]

Population of Taiwan 24 million, total cases 451, deaths 7. No shutdown, net exporter of PPE
America needs to learn from its betters.

We're such a different country than Taiwan.

Here is a relevant tidbit:

"As of Tuesday, 4,514 coronavirus deaths have been reported in the Sunshine State, with four being younger than 18."

Four out of 4500.
We are coming at this from the wrong direction.

[Daddy-YO]

Forget "herd immunity". Forget "immunity passports"

A German study (DW.com today) reports that covid-19 patients lose protective immunity within 2-3 months of recovery. They can be reinfected with the coronavirus. The results are supported by a Chinese study which found that the antibodies do not persist in the blood.


On the environmental front, BK will change its cows' diet to reduce methane farts, by including lemongrass.

[Jonh]

Antibodies don't persist? Is that unique, or are there other viruses or bacteria that give us antibodies that go away? Where's El Doc? I wonder what he'd say about all this?

[drlemcor]

Antibodies don't persist? Is that unique, or are there other viruses or bacteria that give us antibodies that go away? Where's El Doc? I wonder what he'd say about all this?

I've never heard about another virus that only grants 2-3 month antibodies. The immune responses to viruses in our bodies do eventually degrade with age (making them less effective), but this isn't the same thing as vanishing antibodies.

A more likely explanation for reinfection is the mutation of the virus. When a virus mutates, it can reinfect the same person who had it previously, because the immune response coded into our bodies doesn't recognize it anymore. However, if this is what the German study says, then they are muddying definitions. Normal lifelong immunity and herd immunity are still achieved for the original variation of the virus even if future iterations of the virus persist. This is what happens with the common cold virus. We're all walking around with dozens of immune responses granting us lifelong immunity to the variations of influenza that we've had, but the virus just keeps mutating.

[Jonh]

That's why there will never be a cold vaccine, it keeps changing. We have to keep changing the flu vaccine to inoculate against last year's flu, instead of this year's. Maybe it's pure folly to think a Covid vaccine will be any different.

[drlemcor]

That's why there will never be a cold vaccine, it keeps changing. We have to keep changing the flu vaccine to inoculate against last year's flu, instead of this year's. Maybe it's pure folly to think a Covid vaccine will be any different.

Yup.

[Little Corn Tom]

It would be very interesting to me to know what percentage of those over 60 who died took Hydroxychloroquine right away.

[el duende grande]

Vaccines are variable in how long they last. Some are lifetime, like hepA. Many require 10 year boosters like tetanus and polio. Some have to be yearly because the virus mutates like the flu. Some diseases like denque have no vaccine and different strains. We get promises of a dengue vaccine, but so far no results I have heard of.

If it costs a billion dollars to make a vaccine, it must be pretty complicated stuff. A covid vaccine that is effective and long lasting is a not guaranteed to happen. There are some stories of an European strain and an Asian strain of covid but I don't think they really have this nailed down yet.

So far, covid 19-21 is smarter and faster than the scientists and politicians. In any case, there will be other Chinese plagues on the horizon and other countries need to change their public health standards to slow them down as they come.

[el duende grande]

The Peak Prosperity guy says it seems that mild cases produce few or no antibodies but severe cases produce more but not long-lasting. The research is ongoing, but it looks like immunity is going to be a problem.
Nic's new rule that incoming peeple have to be tested within 72 hours before arrival may make some sense, but will add a new hassle to international travel. Like temperature checks, its not perfect but better than nothing.

As far as travel, Panama seems to be losing the covid battle. I can't see their airlines doing much for a while which is sad because they are a major hub for the region. They have (had) direct flights to Vegas which is rarer than hen's teeth!

Forget "herd immunity". Forget "immunity passports"

A German study (DW.com today) reports that covid-19 patients lose protective immunity within 2-3 months of recovery. They can be reinfected with the coronavirus. The results are supported by a Chinese study which found that the antibodies do not persist in the blood.


On the environmental front, BK will change its cows' diet to reduce methane farts, by including lemongrass.

[Jonh]

Unless people's Covid-1984 antibodies are already vanishing, how do they know they diminish over time? And if they vanish this fast, what's the point of an antibody-inducing vaccine?

[bill_bly_ca]

Unless people's Covid-1984 antibodies are already vanishing, how do they know they diminish over time? And if they vanish this fast, what's the point of an antibody-inducing vaccine?

There probably is not and we will have the same 3 yr malaise as 100 yrs ago - Either suffocate with masks and social isolation, or ignore it and have run rampant in spits and spats here and there.

There was I bit I read about a town in the north of BC that shot (or shot at) every attempted visitor to the town for two years back then - They never had a case of Spanish flu

[bill_bly_ca]

Got a phone call from our constituency office for our MPP (Member of Provincial Parliament, similar to a state assembly man if I have my US civics right)

They called to ask if we had any questions on the current Covid regulations (Masks, differences of phases of opening etc etc. )

I said no not at this time and they said they may call back in a month or so just to ask the same question again.

[el duende grande]

That's what happened to the SARs 1 vaccine. It didn't come in time so they lost interest is spending money to continue with it. Suposedly some of that research will help with SARS2. Maybe they will get lucky this time and get a marketable vaccine. Even if it is only good for a year it will get us over the hump. Of course, if they get govmint or foundation money, they get paid win or lose.

Unless people's Covid-1984 antibodies are already vanishing, how do they know they diminish over time? And if they vanish this fast, what's the point of an antibody-inducing vaccine?

[KeyWestPirate]

That's what happened to the SARs 1 vaccine. It didn't come in time so they lost interest is spending money to continue with it. Suposedly some of that research will help with SARS2. Maybe they will get lucky this time and get a marketable vaccine. Even if it is only good for a year it will get us over the hump. Of course, if they get govmint or foundation money, they get paid win or lose.

There is no question that a vaccine will be available, and efficacy is being demonstrated.

The big question now is,, how the vaccine will be distributed. Despite the enormous investment by the US in accelerating the development of a vaccine, if Sleepy Joe is president we may be at the back of the line for getting that shot.

Although the vaccine is still not here, there is a liberal argument for a "fair and just" vaccine distribution.

Fair and Just means Oklahoma gets in line behind the Republic of the Congo.

[Daddy-YO]

For me the big question is how long will a vaccinated person be immune to the coronavirus, to the ravages of covid-19 . . . 2-3 months? a year? for life?

There has been much hype in this first half of 2020, but too little solid science, despite having all the best scientists in the world working on this. Nature humbles men, but you'd never know it from the public display of scientific hubris. In biblical times people knew to 'socially distance' from lepers. Have we advanced?

"Past exposure to common-cold coronaviruses might be playing a protective role for some people. Several studies show that 20 to 50% of people who had never been exposed to the novel coronavirus have immune cells — memory T cells — in their body that react to this new virus. The speculation is that this is due to prior exposure to common-cold coronaviruses."
reworded from https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...sons-optimism/

[el duende grande]

The US is only one country among many working on a vaccine. Remember the CDC turned down test kits from WHO to make their own that turned out to be defective 6 weeks later. Maybe China or Taiwan or S. Korea will be first but they all have bought into some agreement to spread the vaccine around.

In truth, when it comes out they probably won't know how long it will work. Manufacturers are protected from product liability lawsuits because vaccines are inherently dangerous.

[Jonh]

And if they get paid either way, success or failure, what's to stop them from putting nothing at all in the shots? It's not like the world is bound by morality any more.

[el duende grande]

From what I read there are over 100 outfits trying for a vaccine. Winner gets bragging rights. they will probably give it away free or cheap but get subsidized by govs, NGOs, and foundations. Even if they just earned a buck a pop multiply that by a few billion and it adds up, especially if it is a yearly thing.
H. sapiens has the tiger by the tail with not many options.

interesting article today, including the last paragraph--
https://www.upi.com/Health_News/2020...8521594827882/

[KeyWestPirate]

From what I read there are over 100 outfits trying for a vaccine. Winner gets bragging rights. they will probably give it away free or cheap but get subsidized by govs, NGOs, and foundations. Even if they just earned a buck a pop multiply that by a few billion and it adds up, especially if it is a yearly thing.
H. sapiens has the tiger by the tail with not many options.

interesting article today, including the last paragraph--
https://www.upi.com/Health_News/2020...8521594827882/

Whoop de Whoo !

$600 million for first class WHO flights and accommodations. And a little Dinero pa' lado.
Then, they need to pay for the vaccine development.

China and India will clone whichever vaccine is most successful. They already have the structure to manufacture vaccines in place.


How about matching the $15 billion committed by the US to eliminate HIV in Africa ??

I'M not suggesting $15 billion from any single country, but $100 million each from the other 190 countries in the world ? If they are short,, AOK can contribute some of her campaign donations.

That would be $19 billion.
Their own vaccine, and they decide who gets it first. *

We've created this dependency monster over the years, and it hasn't bought us anything.
We feed Africa, they are still starving,, and Africa will always be a $h1*hole. Nothing changes.



* Good luck on that vaccine guys,, it's going to take more than Marxism, Looting, Burning, Rioting,, and America Bashing.
Do you have the chops ?


And, what about the widely hyped Russian Vaccine Lab in Nicaragua ?
Surely, they have something under development for Nicaragua, for Nicaraguans ?

[Jonh]

And, what about the widely hyped Russian Vaccine Lab in Nicaragua ?
Surely, they have something under development for Nicaragua, for Nicaraguans ?

[Daddy-YO]

Managua is manufacturing a flu vaccine under Russian guidance. Probably could be adapted to produce a covid clone vaccine, should something worthwhile emerge.
https://gmpnews.net/2019/04/launching-of-russian-vaccines-in-latin-america/