An article in The Atlantic suggests that herd immunity might be achieved in a population at a 20% overall infection.
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...avirus/614035/
This article requires focus,, don't get sidetracked with the chaos theory articulated (a butterfly flaps its wings in Tucson, and it rains for three days straight in Leon). It really doesn't have anything to do with the author's views on herd immunity and the implications.
NYC is testing positive for antibodies at surprising rates,, especially in some minority neighborhoods. Herd immunity ?
The 20% sounds pretty good, compared to earlier predictions of 60-70%, but at a 1% mortality rate, we would be looking at 700,000 deaths in the US alone. I don't believe the mortality rate IS that high, but that seems to be the accepted overall number.
In retrospect it might have made more sense to lock down the seniors, put them in hotels and motels, or re-activate a surplus military base,, a Rambo Leisure World,, isolated from the general population. Fall out at 0500, Taps at 8PM
Then,, throw rock concerts, Covid parties, etc, for the remainder, whose mortality rate is a fraction of that for those over 65.
In a month or six weeks, the virus would burn out.
How many would die?
I don't know, but if you look at Table 1 in the link below,
of the 114K deaths, over 90K were in the 65 + demographic
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/c...ekly/index.htm
New York suffered over 32,000 deaths ; Florida only 4500 so far.
Populations are similar,, within a couple million.
Florida, Texas and California have a lot of catching up to do.
Nicaragua infections are supposed to peak at the end of this month.
Bookmarks