Are we there yet?

[el duende grande]

https://www.eaai.com.ni/en/internationals


$990 rt to miama on avianca

[cookshow]

Fares on MIA charters had dropped down under $700, in July were almost $900, June was $1400.

[cookshow]

Fares on MIA charters had dropped down under $700, in July were almost $900, June was $1400.

[bill_bly_ca]

I guess we will know how real it is in 13 and a bit hours...

[bill_bly_ca]

And it looks like one left tonight as well

[cookshow]

Maybe is a start.


Saw a post on FB, Avianca requiring they have test results 36 hrs before flight, in MIA same day or next day turn around for tests seems pretty easy but people in other areas does not seem to be so fast. Would be cutting it close, Nica requires test within 72 hrs of arrival, 24hr to get results, then to airline 36hr in advance, pray for no delays.

Looks like MGA travel agents are recommending another testing spot in MIA, cheaper and faster, seen people say tested in morning, results in evening.

Not sure what happens if you test positive, with charters pretty sure you are screwed, they mentioned early and often that tickets were non-refundable.

[el duende grande]

Too dicey for me, especially multi-country flights. Expedia'd Nov flights to vegas. RTs between $600 and $4200! And the post 2018 screwing is alive and well--14 to 20 hour return flights on an 8 hour run. redeyes, too. What part of redeyes do I not like during a pandemia? I am getting too old for this crap.

And hate to be the grinch, but I suspect covid will boomerang in the fall. No "flu" nonsense, just the cold weather will send people indoors breathing on each other plus people are getting bored and careless. Watching Spain and it ain't good. Watching Taiwan and it is good. US/Nic?
Trumpster going out on a limb promising vaccine in Oct. Maybe he can vaccinate his daughter like Putin. Brits have delayed a vaccine to investigate side effects. Spain had pre-bought into this puppy.
Ah, nostalgia, when we could babble on about one of the bennies to living here was you had cheap easy travel to the US and if anything went wrong you could just slide over to CR.

Oh, I read one story that Hawaii and CR were looking at a study that said pretesting and airport screenings would cut 80-90% of the covid spread by tourism. It's the other 10-20% that is troublesome.

[KeyWestPirate]

Here is the blue resistance take on the AstraZeneca issue:

https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotec...very-concerned

Here is what really happened:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rachels.../#57bbb5e7335a


It's annoying that people have to die to get a bum like Joe Biden elected president, especially when he won't make it to the inauguration.
But, it's certainly nothing new.


There was a mass exodus to the beach over the recent Independence Day holiday in Nicaragua. Has Nicaragua achieved herd immunity ? Infections and deaths are way down. Enquiring minds (or is that inquiring minds) would like to know, but probably won't find out. Herd immunity doesn't mean a door shuts; the virus dies out slowly, will be re-introduced, but will have nowhere to go,, unlike Costa Rica.

Sweden still has the odd death,, one on the 14th, nothing on the 15th. Deaths per million,, 580. US, 610
Some perspective: New York deaths per million 1705; New Jersey 1822
It's all about who controls the narrative.

Moderna was paid to manufacture 100 million doses.
A tricky slogan,, Dump the Mask, Take the Shot would have Trumpsters lining up around the block.


Show your vaccine card and get on the plane.

Flu: Interesting,, during the Bio warfare development days, more lethal illnesses were piggybacked onto influenza.
More lethal,, but harder to contract,, less contagious.

Also interesting: I see the odd non-mask wearer around and about.
Hone Depot,, Harbor Freight. The few,, the brave.
But, I don't see them being confronted. LOTS of masks below the nose.

[cookshow]

Appears a commercial Avianca flight flew into and out of mga last night.

I know there is a charter to MIA today and 1 next saturday. A friend is on the 1 next Saturday, travel agent told him is their last scheduled charter.

Far as vaccines, if polls are to be believed only a 5th or so of the USA population says they will take it upon release. I have not talked to anyone here excited to take it. Know several people in high risk category and even they are in no hurry to take it, but people do seem to be getting their flu shots right now.

[el duende grande]

Weird disease, them Chinese are smart folks? anyway, it is catchy enough that without precautions it will overload hospitals, etc. With moderate precautions we seem to be in a holding pattern of plenty of space in the hospitals and 700 a day death rate indefinitely. Lets see what happens in the cold weather.

Faith in gov low, they will have to pressure people to be vaccinated first few months. Captive victims probably first. Federal law protects manufacturers from lawsuits as long as they warned you of possible side effects so expect to see a lot of boilerplate with the shots. One source says 1/3 of vaccines fail in the last round of testing, so I guess you could say they have a 2/3 chance of a positive outcome. Onward to more victories.

The airport website doesn't list which flights are charters but there are flights. also national flights to Siuna.

[Daddy-YO]

Appears a commercial Avianca flight flew into and out of mga last night.

I’ve left our nest near Philly too long untended. We’d planned to fly back mid-March with our boy returning to kindergarten. If Avianca has truly begun commercial flights into & out of MGA, how long will they last? They’re bound to hit the wall of in-bound passengers unable to meet Ortega’s demand for the 72hr PCR test. So do they miss their flight and eat the cost, or buy insurance up-front. Has Aviance shucked off full liability onto their luckless passengers? What does Nicaragua do to someone if their test sample is old, but the printed results < 72hr and Avianca refuses to carry them back? And if it so happens that Avianca has worked a deal with Ortega, how long before competitive airlines return to service MGA?

Looking at Avianca.com it seems I could fly to Miami in 2 wks for $501, but if I check a bag it’ll cost $529 (that’s one 50lb bag). Business class costs $562 and it includes 2x70lb bags checked. No brainer. But it’s still only to Miami, a 2.5 hr hop, arriving at 3am. No way I can afford to take my wife and boy.

RT with Avianca, returning in mid-Dec (will Ortega still demand the 72hr PCR test then?), the cheapest it’d cost is $656 (one checked bag). Delaying my departure 2 more weeks, RT=$553 (one checked bag). A pittance of a difference over one-way, so if pleasing Ortega isn’t possible, or there’s no vaccine yet, or there is, but it’s not acceptable here, then I wait until the politics of this pandemic abate.

It’s still a gamble: after a month will Spirit or AA be flying, cheaply enough so we can all fly together? Avoiding the risk of me being unable to meet the re-entry requirement to fetch them.

[cookshow]

They had big hiccup yesterday out of MIA. See how it works out. Friend has seat next week for $580 MGA - MIA.

[Little Corn Tom]

They had big hiccup yesterday out of MIA. See how it works out. Friend has seat next week for $580 MGA - MIA.

R/T? Airline?

[cookshow]

O/W Avianca

[Daddy-YO]

Today's LaPrensa says AmAir flights to/from MGA will tentatively begin Oct 7. So I checked AA.com, one-way MGA to Philly, $1,269, one seat left on 10/10. One-way MIA-PHL costs $36, yes! Escaping Nicaragua is the challenge.

In reading LP I picked up a hint that returning citizens may pay the $150 for the CoV-19 PCR test on arriving; they'll pass or face quarantine.

From HT, two wks ago,

... the onerous demands of the Ortega regime. The Nicaraguan government has demanded that the airlines supply them with a passenger list 72 hours in advance. Further, they insist that the list include copies of passengers’ passports. They also demand that the crew present negative COVID-19 PCR tests with less than 72 hours of validity. This, even though they don’t actually enter the country.

https://havanatimes.org/news/charter...ave-nicaragua/

[el duende grande]

Daddy-Yo. I appreciate your situation. Bad enough for 1 person, much less 3 of mixed nationalities. probably best to book a rt for a few weeks down stream and forget about the return or hope when time comes for the return that they are still allowing free changes. No guarantee, though, because the airlines are begging for customers right now but as soon as they have them incentives like free flight changes could disappear. Also, somewhere the other shoe must drop and the bankruptcies will start.

With your extended time here, why even plan on coming back, other than RTs are cheaper than OWs?

One of the reasons I didn't flee in March was I had a sense this was going to mushroom and I would not be able to get back. Could not even dream of 3 day notice nonsense. I know 2 Nicas here who have long distance romances and I am sure they are burning up the phone sex.

[KeyWestPirate]

My sense is,, this is all going to turn quickly. It comes down to who gets credit for the save. At the moment the Dems want to deny the win to Trump,, so they will drag this out until it becomes a moot point when Trump wins, or pivot on a dime to Vaccinate Now if Biden wins.

The longer they intentionally damage the economy,, the harder it will be to recover. So, schools will open,, restrictions will be lifted ("we have a vaccine now"), and life will return to normal.

We still have to get through the (celebratory or retaliatory, depending) BLM Christmas looting spree.

Still, if they start vaccinating end of October, by end of year enough people could be vaccinated to push the virus to insignificance. We supposedly have 100 million doses of the Moderna vaccine already manufactured. Another 100 million would push us to herd immunity. The virus won't be gone,, Sweden still has cases and the odd death,, but the virus will have nowhere to go.


I've resigned myself to heading south end of November,, first week of December. If they vaccinate health care workers first,, I can probably piggyback onto Shelley's vaccination in some fashion. I don't need it,, but I do need the vaccination card.

Thinking rationally,, the medicare plans,, especially the advantage plans, will be pushing the vaccination, to their own interest. Advantage plans get a fixed amount per month, around $900, to manage their members' health care. If they spend less, it's all profit. If they spend more, it comes off their bottom line. This incentivizes them to push preventive health care and keep their members healthy.


So, what has this to do with flying ?
Well, you show your vaccine card and get on the plane, show it to immigration when you land.

It seems simple,, and COULD happen by end of year.

If some Sandi is making the big bucks selling PCR tests (that were donated to Nicaragua),
Then the "normal" date might be when Nicaragua runs out of the 50,000 tests they were given.

[Daddy-YO]

Today's LP: airlines further delay resumption of commercial flights tentatively to:
AeroMex - 5 Nov; AA - 8 Oct; Copa - 1 Nov; United - 16 Oct; Spirit - none given
Guatemala & El Salvador don't have this problem. Nicaragua has la regimen ortegista. Will Avianca seriously continuing to serve MGA? It's already in some bankruptcy process in Colombia. It's them or charters that are heavily booked. Which travel agencies does the dynasty own?

Figures:

If some Sandi is making the big bucks selling PCR tests (that were donated to Nicaragua), then the "normal" date might be when Nicaragua runs out of the 50,000 tests they were given.

$150 a pop equals $7.5 million, the sob's; 'tis a shame they're no longer our sob's.

Daddy-Yo. With your extended time here, why even plan on coming back, other than RTs are cheaper than OWs?

If I manage to fly to Philly alone in order to straighten out the mess this political pandemic caused, my sweet, little Nica is too fearful to fly without me, to meet me there with our boy. So I must return (spend Xmas with 'em) and then we all fly North together, happily ever after, or somesuch.

What will deliver us from this great viro-political quagmire? The "election"? The vaccine? Good luck to us all.

[el duende grande]

The new sport of the Chinese century: election dodging!
Let's not be in a major US city in Nov, and not be in Nic. the following fall.
Too bad we don't have quick cheap flights to perform these acrobatics.

following the situation in Spain-- Madrid is being shut down neighborhood by neighborhood as needed based on local infection rates. So far it is only 13% of the population. Believe it or not, some folks are complaining and even demonstrating.

Saw an article online that the temperature machines US skools are paying big bucks for don't work. They cannot even begin to process that many people entering a building during a such a short time. I think the temp guns are one of the unsung heroes of this pandemic, but they only work one by one and in the hands of a trained operator. They are far from perfect, but getting sick people out of airports, etc. during a pandemic is good. Another reason not to fly--if you have an unrelated fever you are screwed. You will probably have to back up, get tested, get a doctor note and wait for the fever to go away.

Reminds me of when I had a mystery illness in the army. For the fever I had to drink a quart of red koolaid every hour for days. I was too sick to get up and shower. After it all I really had a bad attitude on red koolaid.

[KeyWestPirate]

These seem like realistic vaccine availability timelines:

If certain efficacy can be proven before the trial ends, and there are no side effects, there COULD be an EUA (Emergency Use Authorization) prior to the committee approval-FDA approval.


https://www.businessinsider.com/experts-predict-coronavirus-vaccine-timeline-2021-after-election-2020-9


The problem with taking a temperature: if you are sick with COVID sufficient to have a fever, you are not out there running around. You're home on your back and feeling miserable,, wondering if you should head for an emergency room.

If you are asymptomatic, out there spreading the virus to friend and foe alike,, you don't have a temperature. So,, total waste of time.

I got pretty sick, but only had a temperature for a couple of days, and it wasn't very high.
Less than 100 F

[KeyWestPirate]

https://www.who.int/ihr/IVC200_06_26.pdf?ua=1


The WHO vaccination card is still out there,,

Instead of a tri fold card in bright yellow,, it's now a booklet:

https://www.ebay.com/itm/26474809385...QaAqVREALw_wcB



It MIGHT impress some central American border official when the rubber meets the road,, for the money worth the shot.

[Daddy-YO]

When I visited MetroCentro in Managua a couple weeks ago, they had set up an automatic temp-scan device, about the size of one of those monoliths that appeared beside the apes in the movie '2001' provoking them into going bonkers using whatever they could grab as a 'tool'. They'd set up orange traffic cones by the Buffalo Wings entrance to channel us through its field. And then this big box said in perfectly clear English, "Irregular temperature." I stopped and listened. For everyone it scanned, "Irregular temperature." Since the few that speak English here would pick up on a machine droning such big words, all passed without hesitation. No MINSA or uniformed folks in sight to stop us or check masks, nada. The scanner was probably a gift from the same gringo/Euro NGO group that gave 'em the PCR test apparatus & chemicals that ruined travel for the rest of us.

So am I to trust Avianca with my greenbacks or are they running a Spirit Air like scam? If I knew it was a FARQ-FSLN bridge that allowed Ortega to give them the green flag to fly in & out of MGA, I'd feel better about taking a risk.

[el duende grande]

Well, right now I am having trouble with the whole concept of "months". What are they, when are they, and how are they all really different?
Avianca may sew up the market for a while because they were bold enough to jump thru the hoops and do it first. But even if they get us to MIA, we still have to go elsewhere on some other airline, although I guess you could take a train or something to go to Philly or a rent a car. Avianca's webpage was too slow to fathom today but when I do get thru a RT mga to vegas may not be much more than the MIA leg if you book a week out or more. When I Expedia for Thanksgiving, all I get is Spirit and AA and I hardly trust them this far out. Also bugs me when I check the flights I get warnings that NV or FL may have covid problems that could affect the flight. Its all a moving target.

Just hope there is a window to travel and get back before something else goes bump in the night. One US vaccine maker claims it may be ready by the end of October but even so to get it rolling will be well into next year. Some talk it may be a 2-shot vaccine so that slows the effect even more. And one little side effect or something and it will be longer.

Temperature checks are only as good as the operator. Lately here they have been checking wrists instead of faces and I don't know if that is medically correct. Saw a thing online a woman flew from London to Hanoi knowing she was sick but not necessarily with fever. She gave it to several passengers and crew and wasn't diagnosed until 4 days after arrival. That's a long flight and masks were not required so it is a worse case scenario. I guess every time a crew member or passenger gets sick they will have to track and quarantine everyone.

[KeyWestPirate]

More info on the potential and legal basis for a EUA.
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/healt...tists-n1240617

The big Kahuna could do it if he has the huevos.

Early reports on the three leading vaccines have been good. Like the supreme court nomination,, the law would be clearly on Trump's side.

Still might not get you to MGA if Ortega has other plans , or some secret agenda.

Maybe he's bent that his family can't go shopping in Mismi anymore.

[cookshow]

"So am I to trust Avianca with my greenbacks or are they running a Spirit Air like scam? If I knew it was a FARQ-FSLN bridge that allowed Ortega to give them the green flag to fly in & out of MGA, I'd feel better about taking a risk."

Wait few weeks see how it plays out. Been tons of charters out of MGA to both US & EU, so those wanting to leave are waiting on lower fares. Seems like the big demand at moment is flying into Nica. IF Avianca can make it work than AA or Spirit will work it out, IF traffic is there.

Lot of cheap fares in States, but if airlines do not get this new bailout that may change.

Have been in 3 USA airports, masks required, hand sanitizer kiosk everywhere, distancing best they can in the alloted space, flights both at 80% or higher and 1 was a wide body. Southwest & Delta are leaving middle seats empty, others are not. You get handed a bottle of water and peanuts as you step on plane and never see anyone after take off until they come around to get trash.