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Thread: Mitch II ??

  1. #1

    Default Mitch II ??


  2. #2

    Default Re: Mitch II ??

    With a 90% chance of becoming a hurricane within 48 hours.
    Supposed to hit Nicaragua (if it does) on Tuesday.

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    Viejo del Foro el duende grande's Avatar
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    Default Re: Mitch II ??

    I predict rain.
    But you never know....

    "Support mental health or I'll break your head"

    ...with a 6 foot stick and mask and gloves....


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    Dog Whisperer cookshow's Avatar
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    Default Re: Mitch II ??

    Look tje models, is far North, islands had rain yesterday.
    ‎"You know what you say when people tell you you can't do something? Fool, shut your mouth up!"
    Ernie K Doe

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    Para aquí para acá Jonh's Avatar
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    Default Re: Mitch II ??

    Spaghetti
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    Viejo del Foro el duende grande's Avatar
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    Default Re: Mitch II ??

    At this time it is just a tropical storm but it is aimed at us so much rain projected. risk zone is the NE part of the country with diminishing risk as you go west and south. No Mitch in sight.

    "Support mental health or I'll break your head"

    ...with a 6 foot stick and mask and gloves....


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    Viejo del Foro el duende grande's Avatar
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    Default Re: Mitch II ??

    This map gives a creepier route dipping south toward more populated areas.
    https://ticotimes.net/2020/11/01/tro...a-and-honduras

    My wife said one of the worse things about Mitch was it hit them by surprise. Now you have time to do the laundry, buy food, download videos. It currently has tropical storm status so somebody on the coast is going to get hit hard.

    "Support mental health or I'll break your head"

    ...with a 6 foot stick and mask and gloves....


  8. #8

    Default Re: Mitch II ??

    The worst thing about Mitch is,, it wouldn't leave.
    We had one like that in Key West,, it hung there for like four days.

    ETA (funny story there,, when I saw Jonh's post, I spend a half hour looking for the "estimated time of arrival").
    Oh Well. I still do better than Joe Biden.

    I have someone knocking out the floor of my spillway, digging down a foot, putting the concrete pieces back, and concreting it all over.
    I have a six inch pipe for drainage, but I've had issues before when it rained hard for a few days. The pipe just doesn't keep up. I spent a $thou raising the level of the dam last year,, but still,, why take the chance?? If the lake crests the dam, it will be destroyed,, and quickly.

    https://youtu.be/Hc3u_CHVHJ8


    It's an easy day's work for two guys. The storm's forward motion has slowed, the center won't hit the farm until Wed morning.
    If it continues to slow,, well,, as Hamlet says,, "Ay, there's the rub"
    Or, if it slows enough,, it will break up over the RAAN,,, and all my effort will be for nought

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    Para aquí para acá Jonh's Avatar
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    Default Re: Mitch II ??

    Quote Originally Posted by KeyWestPirate View Post
    ETA (funny story there,, when I saw Jonh's post, I spend a half hour looking for the "estimated time of arrival").
    Oh Well. I still do better than Joe Biden.
    Come on, man!

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    Default Re: Mitch II ??

    My house on the clay cliff of Puerto Cabezas is among the first ones to greet ETA. Well, it was a nice house...
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    Para aquí para acá Jonh's Avatar
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    Default Re: Mitch II ??

    Awesosme picture!

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    Viejo del Foro el duende grande's Avatar
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    Default Re: Mitch II ??

    Bumped up to hurican this morning. Worrying think is that the main trajectory drops south and then goes inland significantly. Looks like north coast gets it, then Wilwili, then north at or near concordia or Yali, then off to Hond. Secondary trajectories are interesting, everything from going due west to Pacific and then hitting western Mexico to various lines going north to Yucatan, Cuba, Mijami.

    Surf will be up on the Rio Coco! All major northern towns at risk of flooding. According to the risk map, Esteli is on the border between the 4-8 inches of rain and the 8-16 inches zones.
    Esteli is a case study of poor urban design and maintenance. the old center is high on a bluff, but much of the town is crisscrossed with inadequate weed and trash choked dirt drainage ditches. Recently the 2 main bridges to the eastern part of the town were closed during a regular storm. Panam bridge and iron bridge seem in good shape, especially after the rip-wrapping after 2011.

    Calm and pleasant today so far. May swing by the super to get some stuff just in case. Yesterday we cleaned out our drainage pipes and ditches and moved stuffola to higher locations. Recharging my collection of batteries. On my Ryobi gear I have flashlights, radio, and LED emergency lights. Filled up a 55 gal drum with water just in case and made a few more sand bags. If this is not more than 2010-2011 we are in good shape--watching tv and playing on internet while surrounded by water on 3 sides.

    "Support mental health or I'll break your head"

    ...with a 6 foot stick and mask and gloves....


  13. #13

    Default Re: Mitch II ??




    Distinct eye,, supposed to hit as cat 4 by landfall 7AM Tuesday. It slowed to 9mph,, not good, .
    The longer it's over open water, the stronger it gets.

    I plotted the NOAA coordinates on Google Earth to develop a track,, it should hit Bilwi head on with a claimed 12 foot surge.
    I've never been to Bilwi,, so don't know the lay of the land.

    Look how dry the rest of Nicaragua is.
    "Storm,, what storm?"

    But it does seem to be turning a bit south.
    There is a cold front pushing that area of high pressure over the gulf of Mexico south

  14. #14
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    Default Re: Mitch II ??

    Quote Originally Posted by Jonh View Post
    Awesosme picture!
    I wonder what the picture gonna look like after ETA has made it's pass. Right now things are still good. Watching over webcam how my friends are nailing boards over the windows. But it's waste of time and nails. With the winds they predict, there is no hope. Right on the water, high up on the cliff it'll take off and fly away as a kite.

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    Viejo del Foro Daddy-YO's Avatar
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    Default Re: Mitch II ??

    Good luck Big Duende. Better than luck is preparedness and it reads like you're there bro.

    My wife & fam in Leon should be safe, but she's out today stocking up, plus filling every tub we got with potable water. Hopefully we'll be able stay in touch by WhatsApp video chat as we have been.

  16. #16

    Default Re: Mitch II ??

    Quote Originally Posted by tomfromsinai View Post
    I wonder what the picture gonna look like after ETA has made it's pass. Right now things are still good. Watching over webcam how my friends are nailing boards over the windows. But it's waste of time and nails. With the winds they predict, there is no hope. Right on the water, high up on the cliff it'll take off and fly away as a kite.


    Webcam,, that's a neat idea.
    I need one of those.

    That's a nice house.

    I supposedly had a crew starting early this morning to deepen the spillway from my lake,, but there is no sense of urgency.
    One guy went to the cemetery to visit some dead relatives,, the other is arriving this afternoon.

    They don't see the satellite pictures,, have no idea what is coming at them.

    If it slows, strengthens, then stalls, we will have another Mitch.

    "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it."

    You can see my problem in the pic,, the clouds are going to butt against the mountain and drop their moisture.

    Next stop,, my lake. The picture looks NNE
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    Default Re: Mitch II ??

    [QUOTE=KeyWestPirate;161517] but there is no sense of urgency.
    One guy went to the cemetery to visit some dead relatives,, the other is arriving this afternoon.

    In Bilwi they are working like ants. They know what is heading their way. Authorities went already yesterday to the houses in the beach area and said that there will be mandatory evacuation. All the women and children have to abandon the houses and move inland. Men can still stay, because there will be thieves as well during the devastation. They have to guard their houses or whatever will be left of them. I saw from my webcam few familiar thieves lurking around my house already.
    My big question at the moment is if the house takes off before the coconut in the front of it slams into the roof?

    Nice landscape and lake. Where is it?
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  18. #18

    Default Re: Mitch II ??

    Nice landscape and lake. Where is it?


    Thank you.
    In the mountains NE of Estelí, about 25 miles NE of Condega (Pan Am)
    I only have 5 km of unpaved road and it's a heavily used road so doesn't go totally to shit (or so I tell myself).

    I'm at 4200 feet. It's drier, never gets too hot,, no mosquitos. The view is towards the Rio Coco, about ten miles north.
    The Rio Coco is not the Honduran border where I am, it's another 30 miles or so to Honduras (but no road).


    In Bilwi they are working like ants

    Well,, they have until 7AM tomorrow morning,, unless it slows drastically.
    That would be a nightware, it might arrive as a Cat 5



    Men can still stay, because there will be thieves as well during the devastation.


    So,, BLM is big down there too ?

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    Default Re: Mitch II ??

    Quote Originally Posted by KeyWestPirate View Post
    So,, BLM is big down there too ?
    What is BLM?

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    Viejo del Foro el duende grande's Avatar
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    Default Re: Mitch II ??

    This is the scary map. Looks like everything Matagalpa north is going to get both wind and flooding.

    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/gra...nd120#contents
    Its the winds that blow down trees and power lines.

    People in La Colonia but not crowded by pre-pandemic standards. Lotta stupid traffic, people in a hurry but serius rain won't come till tonite. Swung by Metalmacon to get some blocks to raise the level of a wooden tool chest. Wife saw they stock colored cement pavers which are m/l new in the boondocks. Poor me.

    Local news says it is not another Mitch but prepare anyway. US website says it will be a major hurricane when it hits the coast tues AM but will diminish as it goes inland.

    "Support mental health or I'll break your head"

    ...with a 6 foot stick and mask and gloves....


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    Viejo del Foro el duende grande's Avatar
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    Default Re: Mitch II ??

    USA stuff--Black Lies Matter
    Quote Originally Posted by tomfromsinai View Post
    What is BLM?

    "Support mental health or I'll break your head"

    ...with a 6 foot stick and mask and gloves....


  22. #22
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    Default Re: Mitch II ??

    Queue the cash ventilator if ETA hits significantly.


    DOS will have cash out the Ying Yang to "fix" things.

    100% noticia just posted it is upgraded to a cat 4 - Have not checked NOAA yet.
    ==================================================
    Dude !!!.... Its a Canal !!! Can you Dig it ??

  23. #23

    Default Re: Mitch II ??

    Quote Originally Posted by tomfromsinai View Post
    What is BLM?

    Burn Loot Murder

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    Default Re: Mitch II ??

    Quote Originally Posted by KeyWestPirate View Post
    Burn Loot Murder
    Yes, this is big in Bilwi. It's gonna be their bigtime payday. Right now they are making the plan. I heard that some guys are hiding into the mangroves at Cayos Miskitos if evacuation ever happens. Just to loot the almost empty houses of people they are working side by side with. Quite some time they pay for it with their lives. Extreme poverty reduces men to animals.

  25. #25

    Default Re: Mitch II ??

    Quote Originally Posted by bill_bly_ca View Post
    Queue the cash ventilator if ETA hits significantly.


    DOS will have cash out the Ying Yang to "fix" things.

    100% noticia just posted it is upgraded to a cat 4 - Have not checked NOAA yet.


    We gave them a bundle after Felix cleaned out Puerto Cabezas in 2007. I doubt that Nicaragua will see as much cash this time,, at least not from the US and EU,, but that 8000 foot runway is way more than enough for C130 Air National Guard training flights.

    Checking this,, I came across a C130 that landed on an aircraft carrier and came to a full stop in 267 feet.



    The plane’s wingspan cleared the Forrestal’s flight deck “island” control tower by just under 15 feet as the plane roared down the deck on a specially painted line.

    “The sea was pretty big that day.
    I was up on the captain’s bridge. I watched a man on the ship’s bow as that bow must have gone up and down 30 feet.”

    The carrier arranged for a 40-50 knot wind on the plane's nose.

    There is a video for the non-believers:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CfwJ...ature=youtu.be

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