Will The Last Nicaraguan To Leave

[KeyWestPirate]

Please turn out the lights ?

I've posted a bit about my friend Dania and her two daughters and their journey north.

They finally arrived yesterday afternoon at the Yuma Gap, the punto du jour for migrant crossing.

https://www.borderreport.com/regions...five-day-span/

Dania sent me a pic of the border fence from her hotel room. More fortunate than most,, she and her daughters have stayed in hotels, warm and well fed during the journey.

They were supposed to present themselves to the border patrol this morning.
I haven't heard anything, which might mean that they were successful and are in "processing"

Cell phones are taken away during the detention period, which we hope is brief.
Nominally,, Remain in Mexico has returned,, and the plan was to bus the migrants,, after a Covid shot and some information taking,, to somewhere in Texas,, Juarez I believe, where facilities are waiting for them.

The sheer number of migrants passing through the Yuma Gap is overwhelming the Border Patrol,, which doesn't even have the resources to pick them up.
To load them in buses and ship them to Juarez a week before Christmas seems --at best, not doable.
I suspect, like the Haitians at the Del Rio bridge,, they will all be cut loose.

At least the families.
Biden is not going to risk a "Kids in Cages at Christmas" photo.


So,, with luck,, Dania will be on her way to Phoenix in a couple of days,, and from there, on to her husband in Connecticut. With a court date for her asylum hearing in ten years.
In six months she can apply for a work permit.

Dania said that the prior day,, six migrants from Condega crossed, but had to wait hours for a Border Patrol contact. The migrants are all connected via WhatsAPP, allowing communication between themselves,, and to family scattered over the world.

[bill_bly_ca]

I personally think that the departure of people at odds with the current government may be part of their design.

Why try to change them or incarcerate (a lot) of them if they can just leave and send more money home as many have done and your acquaintance will most certainly do..

[el duende grande]

Working today to build a better future for the country. Think of all those remesas!

Hear a FOF crossed the border and was getting nervous because he couldn't find anybody to surrender to. What kinda flakey country has the US become? Anyway, they got on the phone to the relatives who told them to calm down, wave at the drones and a patrol will eventually come, which it did. Another FOF just kept walking and made it to his relatives house on the East Cost, sans paperwork and delays.

On a slightly related issue my wife discovered her passport is about to expire. We plan a vacation or 2 as soon as wuflu abates (hehe, I couldn't resist a joke) so she went for a routine renewal. Bad day/month/year at migracion. She had to go at 4am to get a number. 9 hours later she was done.

[Daddy-YO]

The view from the other side of the border,


To be worth anything, those remittances may soon have to be in Renminbe.

[cookshow]

I personally think that the departure of people at odds with the current government may be part of their design.

Why try to change them or incarcerate (a lot) of them if they can just leave and send more money home as many have done and your acquaintance will most certainly do..

Look at History, last time he did this more Nicas ended up living in La Florida than in MGA. This is his only hope, Nicas leave and keep Money coming in. The Passport Process has never been easier for Nicas, I have 2 in the mix now and working out a path Northward for them. He needs to shed about 1/4 of the population, Educated go North or to Europa, uneducated go South to CR and do manual labor.

Leaves Nica with a bunch of uneducated, and non workers, take 20yrs to recover, He don't give a shit, Haiti get ready to be #2 Poorest Country in the Hemisphere, Daniel is determined to be #1. at any cost......

[KeyWestPirate]

They have until January of 2023

Easy enough to sneak in now,, no one is stopping them.
But,, no work permit without an asylum claim pending.

YES, Nicas send back money,
return for Easter or Christmas,
and eventually retire with their social security pension, and the proceeds of a house sale.

If you leave by 25,, you can be back by 50.

[el duende grande]

Where do the remnant Americans go? A white Bantustan in Idaho?

[KeyWestPirate]

Where do the remnant Americans go? A white Bantustan in Idaho?

It will depend on how we finally define "white" .
Is Ted Cruz white ?

You don't see Latinos in the looting and smash and grab videos.

[el duende grande]

It will depend on how we finally define "white" .
Is Ted Cruz white ?

You don't see Latinos in the looting and smash and grab videos.

The Bantustan will probably only be 85% white. Ted will be welcome.

[RGV AG]

Gonna be interesting to see how things play out in the next 30 to 50 years, I prolly won't see the 30 even, so curiosity will just have to get me. The thing about the historic migrations of the 20th century, especially the wets from LatAm is that there were birth rates in those, or these, countries that could pretty quickly replace populations. The birth rate across LatAm has been steadily dropping. I wanna say, too lazy to look it up, that Mexico's birth rate is only slightly higher than the US birth rate, and all the countries are dropping.

Goddam US is gonna end up filled to the gills with people, and down south will start emptying out. Vast swaths of Mexico have depopulated due to the agricultural exodus that took place when the NAFTA came into force. Cities are crowded and doing fine, but a lot of areas are depopulating. Parts of CentAm are the same, but not as bad yet.

The returning expats from the 80's exodus to Nicaragua returned at a stage when a lot of the kids were between the ages of 6 to 18 or so. Just worked out because the diaspora for about a 14 year one with the peak in the middle. A lot of the Nica's that ended up in the US with kids ended up staying if they had multiple kids. I don't think there will be a return like there was in the 90's and early double aughts. Lotta the ones I know that have left say that they are done with Nica save for a post POS vacay or two.

[Jonh]

I’ve said before, Nicaragua’s top export is Nicaraguans. They grow ‘em by the thousands.

[el duende grande]

The last I heard mex, hond, and nic were running about 3 kids per woman. That is a disastrous rate. Down from the past, but they will always out produce those who vote with their feet. It will be the worst of both worlds, too many people in the US and too many in the 3rd--and 4th- world. H. sapiens does not play well with each other.

My wife said now the US is going to pay people to stay in C.A. planting trees to combat climate change so they won't go wet.. I asked her what those people were going to do when the tree-planting money goes dry? I predict and booming firewood and charcoal industry.

Real death of the West is the projected population growth in tropical Africa. Google it, where will all those people go?

[el duende grande]

Yep, hard to get the kids to go back once they are raised in the land of milk and honey. And the grandparents that move back seem more like snowbirds going back and forth for family visits. Right now we are balanced--2 grandkids here and 2 abroad. I wonder where the tie breaker will be. Not likely to be here....

Gonna be interesting to see how things play out in the next 30 to 50 years, I prolly won't see the 30 even, so curiosity will just have to get me. The thing about the historic migrations of the 20th century, especially the wets from LatAm is that there were birth rates in those, or these, countries that could pretty quickly replace populations. The birth rate across LatAm has been steadily dropping. I wanna say, too lazy to look it up, that Mexico's birth rate is only slightly higher than the US birth rate, and all the countries are dropping.

Goddam US is gonna end up filled to the gills with people, and down south will start emptying out. Vast swaths of Mexico have depopulated due to the agricultural exodus that took place when the NAFTA came into force. Cities are crowded and doing fine, but a lot of areas are depopulating. Parts of CentAm are the same, but not as bad yet.

The returning expats from the 80's exodus to Nicaragua returned at a stage when a lot of the kids were between the ages of 6 to 18 or so. Just worked out because the diaspora for about a 14 year one with the peak in the middle. A lot of the Nica's that ended up in the US with kids ended up staying if they had multiple kids. I don't think there will be a return like there was in the 90's and early double aughts. Lotta the ones I know that have left say that they are done with Nica save for a post POS vacay or two.

[RGV AG]

The last I heard mex, hond, and nic were running about 3 kids per woman. That is a disastrous rate. Down from the past, but they will always out produce those who vote with their feet. It will be the worst of both worlds, too many people in the US and too many in the 3rd--and 4th- world. H. sapiens does not play well with each other.

My wife said now the US is going to pay people to stay in C.A. planting trees to combat climate change so they won't go wet.. I asked her what those people were going to do when the tree-planting money goes dry? I predict and booming firewood and charcoal industry.

Real death of the West is the projected population growth in tropical Africa. Google it, where will all those people go?

I had always thought it was higher, but last stats are Mex:2.103(just above replacement needs, but that is based on death not immigration), Nicaragua: 2.377, Honduras: 2.420. Those numbers do not point out population growth. What is seen in LatAm is cities growing, as the rural families have more kids than urban folk and there is a constant exodus to the cities due to the rural areas continuing to decline in both prosperity and living standards. Rural municipalities in Mexico are inflating their population figures in order to obtain financial gain, both via political (election resources allocated) as well as tax monies received from federal entities.

There are towns in Northern Mexico that 30 years ago held significant populations and are now almost ghost towns. I was looking at the Mexican stats for one town I worked in years ago that back then probably had, give or take, 15K people. The official stats are saying that current population is just below 8,000. But when you look at the electrification stats on a different website the number of households occupied has dropped by more than 900 in 10 years, between censuses. Mexico is consolidating population more so than expanding it, at least that is what I am seeing.

[KeyWestPirate]

They cut Dania and her two daughters loose last night.
For Belkis (sister) and the family,, a Christmas miracle.

They are in a hotel north of Calexico at the moment.
They have a choice of two airports, San Diego or Phoenix.

There is a small nucleus of the family in Connecticut , her husband, and Frania has an aunt there too.

For Frania, I suspect that it will be a longer "adventure".

But, who knows ??

[el duende grande]

for countries that are unproductive any birthrate over 1.7 is a disaster.

Good news, with the political realignment maybe we are looking at 10s of thousands of Chines engineers, technicians, and cultural attaches needing places to live and bumping up the housing market. Throw in a deep water port or 2, a train, and maybe a second airport that is not in a flood plain in an earthquake zone!
and don't forget zillions o Russian and Chinese tourists spending money like crazy.

[KeyWestPirate]

for countries that are unproductive any birthrate over 1.7 is a disaster.

Good news, with the political realignment maybe we are looking at 10s of thousands of Chines engineers, technicians, and cultural attaches needing places to live and bumping up the housing market. Throw in a deep water port or 2, a train, and maybe a second airport that is not in a flood plain in an earthquake zone!
and don't forget zillions o Russian and Chinese tourists spending money like crazy.

Maybe.
And like Costa Rica,, all the pulperias will be run by Chinese.

The Chinese haven't done much for Venezuela so far.

[KeyWestPirate]

Dania update!!

So one of her daughters tested positive for Covid and they are quarantining for ten days at a Ramada in Holtville.
Dania has been vaccinated, and recently.

It's a quasi detention sort of thing,, I was trying to get some cough syrup and children\s tylenol for Darya.
I called the hotel,, apparently the entire hotel has been taken over for the purpose of housing migrants.
They really didn't want to talk to me and they wouldn't put me through to Dania's room
There is a pharmacy down the road a mile and they deliver,, but Dania has to have "prior approval" to receive a package.

https://www.wyndhamhotels.com/ramada...entro/overview

Still,, it looks like Catholic Charities is picking up the tab (attachment) and they must be eating room service
(I'd like the Surf and Turf, please, and a bottle of wine)



Frania gave us a bit of a fright,, her phone went offline, but it was just a matter of "no saldo"

[KeyWestPirate]

Not Surf and Turf,, but not much of a case of Covid either

This has got to be one hell of an adventure for those two little girls.

[KeyWestPirate]

https://www.kgun9.com/news/local-new...-port-of-entry

Mojados going sourth ?

I know things are tough under Biden,, but I didn't know that it was that bad.

[KeyWestPirate]

Happy Birthday Darya

This kid will never go back to Nicaragua . . . . .

Hotel has free WiFi

The rest of Nicaragua is probably packing a bag as we speak

[el duende grande]

The rest of Nicaragua is driving around in circles preparing for another weekend of parties. Have noticed some especially dumb store clerks today. Maybe the smart ones all left. but there seems to be an inexhaustible supply of dumb ones to take their places.

Happy Birthday Darya

This kid will never go back to Nicaragua . . . . .

Hotel has free WiFi

The rest of Nicaragua is probably packing a bag as we speak

[Jonh]

What could possibly go wrong?

https://www.westernjournal.com/plane...ust-us-border/

[el duende grande]

That gravity stuff all over again. the injured will probably be awarded SSI.

Meanwhile, record crowds at Nica beaches, first car wreck and drownings of 2022 recorded.

[bill_bly_ca]

A Turkish illegal that has traveled to the southern border and then hired a plane to fly into the states is not a poor migrant nor will they probably end up picking peppers.

Gangster? Racketeer?