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Thread: November 2011

  1. #26
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    Default Re: November 2011

    Quote Originally Posted by StickMan View Post
    Sorry for not keeping up with this, but have been off line for a week or so.

    Thanks Bill. I look forward to the responses you get. Just curious if you can pick up economic condition/polictical leanings as well from those you ask, ie. BIL#1, no job, clearly Nista, feels this way __. Prima#2, Dr. at Hospital _, typically supports PLC candidate, but can be swayed, feels this way __.

    In the meantime, I got word that the plan is to put a team together for a visit the first week in October in 2011, rather than the typical 1st or 2nd week of November. My personal opinion is that this could be a worse time than normal in that final opposition/support could be at a fever pitch at that time which may or may not be resolved by the time the actual election rolls around. Regardless, unless the powers-to-be kill the trip completely for 2011, I will be there. I look forward to my annual visits and have only missed one year since 1997.

    Haven't really gotten much of a feel yet from some of you on the ground there. Are you putting plans in place, not worrying about it, or is that something to think about "man~ana?"
    My opinion is that you are worrying for nothing. Last time round, all the political drama got played out in Managua. Stay away from the city and you will have nothing to fear. Here in Jinotepe I wouldn't have even noticed there was an election had it not been for the sound of exploding mortars that announced the start of campaign rallies. Also, the restaurants weren't allowed to sell beer that day and the bars were closed!

  2. #27
    Active TRN Member StickMan's Avatar
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    Thumbs up Re: November 2011

    Quote Originally Posted by Mikeh View Post
    My opinion is that you are worrying for nothing. Last time round, all the political drama got played out in Managua. Stay away from the city and you will have nothing to fear. Here in Jinotepe I wouldn't have even noticed there was an election had it not been for the sound of exploding mortars that announced the start of campaign rallies. Also, the restaurants weren't allowed to sell beer that day and the bars were closed!
    Thanks for that Mike. We are planning to avoid downtown Managua, El Malecon, and the routundas (seems that is where folks like to hang out, wave flags and blast their views at max volume), but we will be staying where we always do, just outside the city. We seldom are at any major shopping areas, but do frequent smaller stores near the edges of town. My hope is to still get into barrio Santa Rosa to visit kids at a particular school. The good thing is that our bus driver is an experienced local and is devoted to his customers and his bus. If he feels it is unsafe for us to be somewhere, he simply won't take us there.

    Sounds like folks on here are treating this almost as a non-event at this point. Hopefully things will work out for the best for all. Nicaragua is such a beautiful country with many, many wonderful people, I'd hate to see anything bad happen.
    "Find out what it is in life that you don't do well - and then don't do that thing." -The most Interesting Man in the World

  3. #28

    Default Re: November 2011

    Quote Originally Posted by StickMan View Post

    Do you, or those you come in contact with on a daily basis, feel concerned at this point? Is there any sense of a growing concern? .....Not trying to kick a hornet's nest, but those of you US ex-pats who frequent this site and are living in Nicaragua, are you putting contingency plans in place "just in case," or do you feel secure enough in your assimilation to the local culture to plan to ride out whatever may come?
    Read the newspapers, assuming you read Spanish!. Ortega gets more brazen by the day, and his coffers flush with venezuelan cash have been put to good use by splintering the so-called opposiiton that are essentially prostitutes that will sell their to the highest bidder.

    The outflow of people is getting noticeable. Spain of all places! is becoming a preferred destination for many women looking for greener pastures.

    The only people telling you things are rosy are those with a vested interest in continuing the gringo influx. Nica businessmen are quietly putting their reales in friendlier locales (not the USA) such as Panama, Cayman Islands, etc.

  4. #29
    Para aquí para acá Jonh's Avatar
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    Default Re: November 2011

    What Guegue says may be true, but my recent month and a half in Nicaragua gave me no evidence of economic stagnation. The place was hoppin'. Maybe people are living it up while they can, or maybe they think nothing bad will happen. They grumble about the money wasted on pink billboards, but still go eat at Rostipollo and Tip Top.

    But I do agree that the frogs are being boiled slowly.

  5. #30
    Active TRN Member StickMan's Avatar
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    Default Re: November 2011

    Quote Originally Posted by Jonh View Post
    They grumble about the money wasted on pink billboards, but still go eat at Rostipollo and Tip Top.
    I guess that's kind of what I was getting to. Being a visitor and not a resident (native or non-native) to Nicaragua, it appears that the North American perspective is often trying to project what will happen in the future and then plan/prepare for it the best you can, while the locals (native and now even the non-native?) approach is more along the stereotypical tropical mindset of waiting to see what tomorrow brings and then deal with it then if you need to.

    It appears that many of the people who frequent this board (or at least many of those who choose to respond) are expats and maybe they are not understanding or seeing the undercurrent that is happening around them. Perhaps Gueguense, who I am assuming to be native Nicaraguan and still living in country, has a better handle on the mindset of the general Nicaraguan populace. Then again, could Gueguense's feelings be more along the line of thinking like Chicken Little - that the sky is falling?

    Please don't take this wrong. I am not calling anyone names. I am just trying to guage the perspectives of the people. I just read a line in a book yesterday that stated, "paradigms power perspectives and perspectives power emotions." I am trying to determine if the general feeling is that regardless of the ultimate outcome of the election, things will continue pretty much normally for the vast majority of Nicaraguans so just deal with it, or if the feeling is that if it looks like DOS is going to be successful in his attempts to gain ultimate power that people will take up arms and there will be significantly more danger in the cities and towns in Nicaragua so you'd best start putting things in motion to deal with that situation.

    That said, I would not disagree that business owners in Nicaragua should be protecting their assets by moving them offshore to prevent another Pinata should DOS be successful in his attempt to be reelected. That just seems prudent based on history. But, are they also putting plans in place to relocate themselves and their families to "friendlier locales (not the USA) such as Panama, Cayman Islands, etc." or just their monies? Mine's more a question of personal safety versus material safety. And, if locals are doing both, should expats be paying more attention and putting plans in place as well?
    "Find out what it is in life that you don't do well - and then don't do that thing." -The most Interesting Man in the World

  6. #31

    Default Re: November 2011

    Quote Originally Posted by StickMan View Post
    it appears that the North American perspective is often trying to project what will happen in the future and then plan/prepare for it the best you can, while the locals (native and now even the non-native?) approach is more along the stereotypical tropical mindset of waiting to see what tomorrow brings and then deal with it then if you need to.
    I disagree..Many people since 1979 have learned to have their eyes and ears open and close to the ground. why do you think nica businessmen want to make 2 years worth of profit in a month? because of what happened in Nicaragua during the 1980's. The political instability caused by Daniel Ortega and his coterie make long-term planning down-right impossible.


    Quote Originally Posted by StickMan View Post
    many of the people who frequent this board (or at least many of those who choose to respond) are expats and maybe they are not understanding or seeing the undercurrent that is happening around them. Perhaps Gueguense, who I am assuming to be native Nicaraguan and still living in country, has a better handle on the mindset of the general Nicaraguan populace. Then again, could Gueguense's feelings be more along the line of thinking like Chicken Little - that the sky is falling?
    Some people like in the other board have a vested interest in preventing hapless doe eyed gringos from seeing the pitfalls that can happen in a place like Nicaragua. This forum is a chronicle of what has happened to many poor gringos. Some of them have been hacked to death by their novias, others like that poor lady, lemon grove were killed by a drogadicto. and of course we have KAT (kelly Ann Thomas) who had a harrowing experience.

    I am an old-timer cantankerous Nicaraguan viejo arrecho who pulls no punches! rajatabla as we Nicas say!. Since the fraud of November of 2008, I realized that Ortega will not stop and he will go Putin on us. Meaning he will have a thug-o-cracy/turberocracia with a pseudo-veneer of legality. He knows that self-coups are passee!. He will "win" by "acclamation of the popular will".

    I am no chicken little, the sky fell on Nicaragua back in 1979, and it has not been sunny with blue-skies since. Those who would come here, need to be careful. I understand that given the increasing heavy handedness of the tio sam government, many gringos are looking for an escape. The tio sam is placing surreptitious capital controls, "exit taxes" on gringo wealth, tio sam is making it harder for people to give up their gringosity. The tio now charges $450.00 for the privilege. A final "TU MADRE" from the tio sam.

    http://www.cnn.com/2010/TRAVEL/07/07...ex.html?hpt=T2

    with all that however, do you want to go to Nicaragua to go from the frying pan into the fire?. In the states for the most part (even with the down economy) you can walk in most places in the evening and not worry about getting car-jacked or robbed. In Managua, after 7 P.M. you are asking for trouble....

    Quote Originally Posted by StickMan View Post
    I am trying to determine if the general feeling is that regardless of the ultimate outcome of the election, things will continue pretty much normally for the vast majority of Nicaraguans so just deal with it, or if the feeling is that if it looks like DOS is going to be successful in his attempts to gain ultimate power that people will take up arms and there will be significantly more danger in the cities and towns in Nicaragua so you'd best start putting things in motion to deal with that situation.
    This time around, there is no Ronald Reagan(may he rest in peace!). Who will finance opposition to Ortega? not the USA, and certainly not the communist EU or pansy-Canada
    The campesinos this time around are for the most part being left-alone by Ortega. He learned his lesson. The kids now are so clueless and enthralled by consumerism that the days of old yore of risking life and limb for a cause is a dead issue. My blog post of the cedula details the means by which he will win the election through fraud. As stalin said, he who counts the votes has the power...and the Gordo Rivas is the one doing the counting....


    Quote Originally Posted by StickMan View Post
    That said, I would not disagree that business owners in Nicaragua should be protecting their assets by moving them offshore to prevent another Pinata should DOS be successful in his attempt to be reelected. That just seems prudent based on history. But, are they also putting plans in place to relocate themselves and their families to "friendlier locales (not the USA) such as Panama, Cayman Islands, etc." or just their monies? Mine's more a question of personal safety versus material safety. And, if locals are doing both, should expats be paying more attention and putting plans in place as well?
    The uber-rich like the Pellas, think themselves as untouchables, and for the most part it is true. They are no fools however, and most of their $$$ is certainly held offshore. The nicas who left Nicaragua in the 1980's for POLITICAL REASONS and who have come back to Nicaragua have their foreign passports always at the ready. Many of my fellow old timers though, say they will die in place as they have lost the will to move again.

    As for keeping money safe, that is the big unknown. It is clear that we are seeing a move towards outlawing cash in the USA/EUROPE under the guise of "money laundering" and 9/11 hysteria.The old dependable places like Switzerland do not want money from gringos. other principalities are being attacked by Germany. Britain is attacking their former colonies who developed a thriving industry. Panama is fickle and too subject to U.S. pressure. There are certain places left, but that is my secret!!!!
    Last edited by Gueguense; 08-06-2010 at 12:24 AM.

  7. #32
    Pinolero De Cepa!! FisherCigarman's Avatar
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    Default Re: November 2011

    very nice my Ilustre Paisa .

    Ahora,dejate de chochadas y agarra un fusil maje ,yahob te esta esperando jodido!!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Gueguense View Post
    I disagree..Many people since 1979 have learned to have their eyes and ears open and close to the ground. why do you think nica businessmen want to make 2 years worth of profit in a month? because of what happened in Nicaragua during the 1980's. The political instability caused by Daniel Ortega and his coterie make long-term planning down-right impossible.




    Some people like in the other board have a vested interest in preventing hapless doe eyed gringos from seeing the pitfalls that can happen in a place like Nicaragua. This forum is a chronicle of what has happened to many poor gringos. Some of them have been hacked to death by their novias, others like that poor lady, lemon grove were killed by a drogadicto. and of course we have KAT (kelly Ann Thomas) who had a harrowing experience.

    I am an old-timer cantankerous Nicaraguan viejo arrecho who pulls no punches! rajatabla as we Nicas say!. Since the fraud of November of 2008, I realized that Ortega will not stop and he will go Putin on us. Meaning he will have a thug-o-cracy/turberocracia with a pseudo-veneer of legality. He knows that self-coups are passee!. He will "win" by "acclamation of the popular will".

    I am no chicken little, the sky fell on Nicaragua back in 1979, and it has not been sunny with blue-skies since. Those who would come here, need to be careful. I understand that given the increasing heavy handedness of the tio sam government, many gringos are looking for an escape. The tio sam is placing surreptitious capital controls, "exit taxes" on gringo wealth, tio sam is making it harder for people to give up their gringosity. The tio now charges $450.00 for the privilege. A final "TU MADRE" from the tio sam.

    http://www.cnn.com/2010/TRAVEL/07/07...ex.html?hpt=T2

    with all that however, do you want to go to Nicaragua to go from the frying pan into the fire?. In the states for the most part (even with the down economy) you can walk in most places in the evening and not worry about getting car-jacked or robbed. In Managua, after 7 P.M. you are asking for trouble....



    This time around, there is no Ronald Reagan(may he rest in peace!). Who will finance opposition to Ortega? not the USA, and certainly not the communist EU or pansy-Canada
    The campesinos this time around are for the most part being left-alone by Ortega. He learned his lesson. The kids now are so clueless and enthralled by consumerism that the days of old yore of risking life and limb for a cause is a dead issue. My blog post of the cedula details the means by which he will win the election through fraud. As stalin said, he who counts the votes has the power...and the Gordo Rivas is the one doing the counting....




    The uber-rich like the Pellas, think themselves as untouchables, and for the most part it is true. They are no fools however, and most of their $$$ is certainly held offshore. The nicas who left Nicaragua in the 1980's for POLITICAL REASONS and who have come back to Nicaragua have their foreign passports always at the ready. Many of my fellow old timers though, say they will die in place as they have lost the will to move again.

    As for keeping money safe, that is the big unknown. It is clear that we are seeing a move towards outlawing cash in the USA/EUROPE under the guise of "money laundering" and 9/11 hysteria.The old dependable places like Switzerland do not want money from gringos. other principalities are being attacked by Germany. Britain is attacking their former colonies who developed a thriving industry. Panama is fickle and too subject to U.S. pressure. There are certain places left, but that is my secret!!!!

  8. #33

    Default Re: November 2011

    Quote Originally Posted by FisherCigarman View Post
    very nice my Ilustre Paisa .

    Ahora,dejate de chochadas y agarra un fusil maje ,yahob te esta esperando jodido!!!
    Idiay compita, si dicen que vos fuiste de la DGSE en Esteli!!
    Ahi veremos con Yahob, que se cuide el maje porque Lenin Cerna y el ejercito piricuaco lo mataran si lo agarran!.

    Ya sacaste a los cubanos ladrones de Esteli? dedicate a eso mejor, el clavo es que despues quien
    te compra los puros....... oye chico asere!

  9. #34
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    Default Re: November 2011

    Seems to me if the Pellas family was truly moving there Cordoba abroad they wouldn't be building Guacalito de la Isla. A 250 million dollar development on the Pacific coast outside of Rivas. Your right about the jovenes being too caught up in consumerism to take there guns to town again though.

  10. #35

    Default Re: November 2011

    Quote Originally Posted by StickMan View Post
    I guess that's kind of what I was getting to. Being a visitor and not a resident (native or non-native) to Nicaragua, it appears that the North American perspective is often trying to project what will happen in the future and then plan/prepare for it the best you can, while the locals (native and now even the non-native?) approach is more along the stereotypical tropical mindset of waiting to see what tomorrow brings and then deal with it then if you need to.

    It appears that many of the people who frequent this board (or at least many of those who choose to respond) are expats and maybe they are not understanding or seeing the undercurrent that is happening around them. Perhaps Gueguense, who I am assuming to be native Nicaraguan and still living in country, has a better handle on the mindset of the general Nicaraguan populace. Then again, could Gueguense's feelings be more along the line of thinking like Chicken Little - that the sky is falling?

    Please don't take this wrong. I am not calling anyone names. I am just trying to guage the perspectives of the people. I just read a line in a book yesterday that stated, "paradigms power perspectives and perspectives power emotions." I am trying to determine if the general feeling is that regardless of the ultimate outcome of the election, things will continue pretty much normally for the vast majority of Nicaraguans so just deal with it, or if the feeling is that if it looks like DOS is going to be successful in his attempts to gain ultimate power that people will take up arms and there will be significantly more danger in the cities and towns in Nicaragua so you'd best start putting things in motion to deal with that situation.

    That said, I would not disagree that business owners in Nicaragua should be protecting their assets by moving them offshore to prevent another Pinata should DOS be successful in his attempt to be reelected. That just seems prudent based on history. But, are they also putting plans in place to relocate themselves and their families to "friendlier locales (not the USA) such as Panama, Cayman Islands, etc." or just their monies? Mine's more a question of personal safety versus material safety. And, if locals are doing both, should expats be paying more attention and putting plans in place as well?
    Ortega has already achieved ultimate power. The 2008 elections here in Nicaragua proved that beyond a shadow of a doubt. Any future elections while Ortega is in power will be just as corrupt. The only open question is whether Ortega will be able to use that power to turn Nicaragua into a Cuban style police state- which he clearly wants to do.

  11. #36

    Default Re: November 2011

    MENSAJE ESTUPENDO E INGENIOSO
    Una mañana, Daniel Ortega, Presidente del Gobierno de Nicaragua, queda gratamente sorprendido al leer una noticia en la prensa:

    María, una joven madre nicaragüense, bautiza a sus recién nacidos gemelos, niño y niña, con el nombre de Daniel y Nicaragua.

    Honrado por esta circunstancia, Ortega decide hacer una visita a la mamá en cuestión, como muestra de su agradecimiento.

    Al llegar a su casa, encuentra a María dando el pecho a Daniel; el Presidente reitera constantemente su agradecimiento y pregunta a la madre de los gemelos:

    ¿Dónde está Nicaragua, la hermanita de este glotón precioso que no deja de mamar?

    María le responde que está profundamente dormida desde hace mucho rato...

    Extrañado por la respuesta, el Presidente tiene la osadía de aconsejar a la mamá que la despierte y así podría tener la oportunidad de verla.

    La respuesta de María deja al Presidente sin habla...

    Señor Presidente, no le aconsejo despertar a Nicaragua porque si Nicaragua despierta...Daniel dejaría de mamar...

  12. #37

    Default Re: November 2011

    Quote Originally Posted by melian View Post
    Seems to me if the Pellas family was truly moving there Cordoba abroad they wouldn't be building Guacalito de la Isla. A 250 million dollar development on the Pacific coast outside of Rivas. Your right about the jovenes being too caught up in consumerism to take there guns to town again though.
    Melian, they keep their dolares outside for sure. These people are very smart. In order for them to stay on top of the foodchain their mordida budget is very very big. No matter who has been in power they keep making the money. No ideology, no values, just like the COSEP who now is back behind Ortega,

    It is very easy to get ultrarich in Latin-america when you have a monopoly over certain key areas of the economy. The Pellas have now pretty much diversified into banking, logistics, alternative fuels. Ortega is growing richer by the day by controlling oil/petroleum distribution...this ALBA makes the piñata like chump change..........

    Back in the 1990's there was an upstart kid from Miami who tried to open a BMW/Toyota franchise......that kid was not allowed to operate. When the Miami nicas started bringing their cars and hurting the Pellas, Bolaños introduced the stupid 10 year law that prevents people from bringing in jalopies....it was hurting the Pellas and other oligarchs too much....

  13. #38

    Default Re: November 2011

    Very good post Gueguense!
    All this for a flag? Michelle Obama http://hotair.com/archives/2011/11/0...our-years-ago/

  14. #39
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    Default Re: November 2011

    Quote Originally Posted by Jonh View Post
    What Guegue says may be true, but my recent month and a half in Nicaragua gave me no evidence of economic stagnation. The place was hoppin'. Maybe people are living it up while they can, or maybe they think nothing bad will happen. They grumble about the money wasted on pink billboards, but still go eat at Rostipollo and Tip Top.

    But I do agree that the frogs are being boiled slowly.
    Jonh, I now live permanently in Carazo where I dont run into many gringos and interact mostly with Nicaraguans, and I can tell you in no uncertain that the place is not hoppin', evidence of economic stagnation grows stronger each month, and working-class Nicaraguans are not living it up. I don't know which Nicaraguans you associate with but the ones I know can't afford to eat at Tip Top. Every time I go there, the other customers are tourists, NGO aristocrats, and people I recognize from around town as Sandinista corruptos and people with old family money.

    Prices of basics have climbed steadily, e.g., the price of hand soap has doubled in the last year, and blue-collar work has dried up. People are desperate and the ones that want to work will do just about anything for a buck. A friend of my girl just got a job working as overnight live-in caregiver for a viejacita at $50 a month and she was thrilled to get it. This is is a woman who is a trained chef and a great baker.

    I understand you hang out mainly around Estili which I don`t get to much, so maybe conditions are better there these days, but I can tell you that from Masaya to Rivas, the poor are getting poorer, and government services are falling apart.

  15. #40
    TRN Science officer bill_bly_ca's Avatar
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    Default Re: November 2011

    So the question was asked about Nov 2011....

    And when the question was asked I was in the "Work a day North American" state of mind (e.g. Do this by 5 - You will do this by Friday - This must ship by month end - You will fix this and you will fix it now, and for good)

    And accordingly I answered in my NA mindset "of course I will do this query and report" - My bad .. Big mistake...

    Because after 3 or 4 days of settling in (Making sure Dad was squared away, the bags unpacked and distributed, Monies given for passing was passed, seeing the plans of blissful vacation autonomy with the miss-us being consumed with endless diversion and interrupts) I realized that the question can not be asked in that North American mind set...

    I stared into the faces of family, friends and acquaintances and seen that they are not absorbed in the ways of the National Assembly, the rulings of the CSJ, the current state of the PLC or even what the rest of the world (or even the OAS) thinks about their circumstance and I just could not be that blunt... Half because of not enough of a command of the language (for speech) but more of a sudden understanding that things do not work that way... here....

    For example someone will not tell you "they do not have eggs today" they will say " You are better to get eggs across the street today" .. A subtle but important different.. ( Hope I chose the correct analogy)

    So at every instance where I wanted to ask the question I could not do it.. It was to " Northerner" to ask such a thing. Hard to put the feeling into words..

    So what I did was watch and listen (as best I could) to what I heard especially whenever "the future" was brought up...

    Now as I write this evening I am almost 1 wk back to the grind... Pi$$ed off Israelis, impatient Japanese, even more impatient Koreans and a few cordial, but direct, Yanks have been swamping me with 36 days of work for the the (not all) 18 business days I took off, and I fear much of the insight I have/had is lost for the next 18 months... (Hint given )

    From the one jovial fellow I asked he seemed very comfortable with Nov 2011.

    From the rest that I "heard" (not asked) I think there is little issue.. People seemed very relaxed about Dos Part 3.. I did not take away any feelings of of armed insurrection or violence.. There seems to be a complacent acceptance that DOS will win the next poll...

    So now I can answer only now for ourselves...
    As of now we are of the opinion that we will return with our children in Dec 2011 with little or no reservation.. It is subject to review of course as the next trip will be with our most precious gift, our children (well the eldest will turn 18 on that trip ) so they will not even be children at that time but you know what we mean..


    Not the expected (anticipated or promised) answer..

    But upon reflection what Nica experience has ever been what you expected...
    Last edited by bill_bly_ca; 08-25-2010 at 10:45 PM.
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  16. #41
    Active TRN Member StickMan's Avatar
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    Default Re: November 2011

    Bill ~ as I was the one to raise the question initially, I want to thank you for your observations. I truly appreciate that you were able to at least get a feel for the concern (or lack thereof) for the politics of DOS.

    As I indicated above, after I had posted the question I got word that our team would adjust our arrival/departure dates so as not to coincide with the election. But, based on your input and others I have received, it appears that may not have been necessary.

    Then again, who knows what tomorrow brings? Perhaps our best bet is simply to live and let live and not to worry so much about what may or may not happen, and to just take life as it comes. Mind our surroundings, keep our mouths shut if it doesn't affect us personally, and enjoy what I have come to discover is one of the finest jewels in this half of the world - Nicaragua and her people.

    Now, where did you say I could buy eggs today?

    p.s. - Just curious if you took pix in "my neighborhood" and if so, have you posted them somewhere where I can view them? I'm jonesin' for a Nica fix.
    "Find out what it is in life that you don't do well - and then don't do that thing." -The most Interesting Man in the World

  17. #42
    Para aquí para acá Jonh's Avatar
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    Default Re: November 2011

    Good observations, Bill. There's a family friend in Esteli who, after years of knowing me, asked me a question about American politics and I answered her with an analogy to Nicaraguan politics. She liked my answer. I was surprised because as you observed, few broach the subject openly. But I think many have strong feelings not far beneath the surface. They do follow the Asemblea, the CSJ, and the rest as reported in La Prensa, but in a country where free speech can result in death or serious injury they guard their opinions carefully.

    Plus, in contrast to our Norteña state of being, they seem to focus on the things that actually matter instead of silly artificial deadlines and things beyond their control (i.e. politics).

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