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Thread: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

  1. #276
    Viejo del Foro Daddy-YO's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    Quote Originally Posted by bill_bly_ca View Post
    Niclandia started 2 months later and no one trusts the data to open the borders - It is going to be a hunker down until Purisima and beyond
    I suspect a miraculous lifting of the covid-19 threat in Nicaragua will occur on or just after the 19th of July (viva la revolucion), and borders will open with joyous cheers and heavy traffic.

  2. #277
    Viejo del Foro el duende grande's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    Nic's borders will open, CR's and Honduras' will not, but should be some great parades from govmint employees here. 9 agricultural enterprizes closed in N. CR. for covid. Undoubtedly a lot of Nicas working there.

    Got word a friend in MGA is being treated at home by a private doctor. She is doing OK but the body aches are severe. Her and her driver came down and another friend at the office is self-quarantined but so far tests negative.

    Folks in AZ not wearing masks are dragging this out. Maybe Americans are too freedom loving to survive. Trump can't investigate/purge CDC because too much negative info will come out on him. But it will be open season for the Dems during the campaign.They need an issue after their black criminals are leaving such a bad taste among middle Americans.

    "Support mental health or I'll break your head"

    Covid was an intelligence test and we flunked.



  3. #278

    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    " ... . One of the things that has really bothered me about COVID-19 is the dramatic variability in presentation, from being asymptomatic to having sniffles, complete respiratory failure requiring ECMO, and, of course, death. I've seen all of these firsthand at this point. And sure, we know that there are risk factors for bad outcomes, such as older age and comorbidities. But ask any of us who have cared for these patients and we'll tell you that there is clearly other stuff going on. I've seen a 35-year-old man with no comorbidities fighting for his life on ECMO. ....One of the things that has really bothered me about COVID-19 is the dramatic variability in presentation, from being asymptomatic to having sniffles, complete respiratory failure requiring ECMO, and, of course, death. I've seen all of these firsthand at this point. And sure, we know that there are risk factors for bad outcomes, such as older age and comorbidities. But ask any of us who have cared for these patients and we'll tell you that there is clearly other stuff going on. I've seen a 35-year-old man with no comorbidities fighting for his life on ECMO.


    Most of us could have written that first sentence ourselves. This from from an article that questioned whether blood type has anything to do with outcome.

    How is it that deaths yesterday in NY are 46, and in Arizona,, 41 ??
    Is this a virus that kills a vulnerable demographic, sickens some others, and infects many who show minimal or no symptoms ? Is the contagion more widespread than we realize? Is the death over? It has been six months now.

    Brazil is way down too.

    Minnesota, Maryland, Illinois, big protester locations,, deaths all way down despite people gathered tightly together and yelling in each other's faces. Granted, looting is a solitary occupation, with masks and with plenty of social distancing, but not the protesting that I witnessed.

    Oklahoma reported one death yesterday. Tomorrow Tulsa hosts a 30,000 person Trump rally. Over 1 million persons have requested tickets. People have been camped out in line since the first of the week. Sleepy Joe is watching from his basement.

    “Any protesters, anarchists, agitators, looters or lowlifes who are going to Oklahoma please understand, you will not be treated like you have been in New York, Seattle, or Minneapolis,” Trump tweeted Friday. “It will be a much different scene.”

    May we live in interesting times

  4. #279
    Viejo del Foro el duende grande's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    One variable seems to be how big your initial dose was. Medical personnel who are exposed all day have their immune system bombarded and can get bad cases even if young. Other people who get a little Home Depot dose seem to do better. There is also some speculation that people who have had asymtomatic cases may not have any immunity. It will be years before they sort it all out.

    Meanwhile, medical care and PPE is better than before. Fake news is as bad as before, but some people are realizing this and taking it with a grain of salt and doing what they think they need to do.

    Relative in Miami got a cold but noticed when he went to put vapo rub on his nose that he could not smell it. Off to testing, we shall see.

    "Support mental health or I'll break your head"

    Covid was an intelligence test and we flunked.



  5. #280
    TRN Science officer bill_bly_ca's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    Quote Originally Posted by KeyWestPirate View Post

    Brazil is way down too.

    May we live in interesting times
    Really? Brazil

    Only the second country to report over a million cases and over 1000 deaths yesterday.

    It's another Coronavirus shit show.

    Of course China was the first to pass 1million but they cooked the books.
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  6. #281

    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    Quote Originally Posted by bill_bly_ca View Post
    Really? Brazil

    Only the second country to report over a million cases and over 1000 deaths yesterday.

    It's another Coronavirus shit show.

    Of course China was the first to pass 1million but they cooked the books.



    Yeah, but they were running 1700,, 1500,, daily a short time back. There is a really interesting curve set, recovery rate superimposed over death rate on Worldometer.com /corona. I wish it could post it here (OK, I did, but pic doesn't do graph justice).

    It tells volumes. More and more cases, and recoveries, but fewer and fewer deaths.

    Orange line is deaths, green line is recoveries.
    Attached Images Attached Images

  7. #282
    Viejo del Foro Daddy-YO's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    On Brazil ...
    Quote Originally Posted by KeyWestPirate View Post
    There is a really interesting curve set, recovery rate superimposed over death rate on https://www.worldometers.info/corona...ountry/brazil/ It tells volumes. More and more cases, and recoveries, but fewer and fewer deaths.
    What makes these plots so wild looking is that for these rates the denominator is the total number of declared cases closed, sometimes called 'confirmed' cases closed, but this number varies greatly. In the beginning it's a small number, mainly those dragged into a hospital near dead, later there may be more testing of the general population, esp. those in contact with the infected, and so it's bigger and represents a better sampling of the population as a whole. As the denominator grows larger & larger, there's less variation.

    To wit, Brazil on Mar 25 had a death rate of a whopping 97%, 3% recovered. On April 13, 88% of their closed cases had died, 12% recovered. Then suddenly, on April 14 the death rate dropped to 10% and 90% of Brazilians diagnosed with covid-19 had recovered. By yesterday June 20 the overall death rate was 8% and 92% of their closed 'confirmed cases' had recovered. Undoubtedly there are many more 'cases' who have or have had the virus who show(ed) no symptoms or mild flu-like ones, were never tested, and are not counted in this denominator.

    The media is selling lots of copy with this pandemic. Misrepresentation is rampant. Remember their rule, if it bleeds it leads. They're shock jocks. Hey, it's a job, no?
    Last edited by Daddy-YO; 06-21-2020 at 08:58 AM. Reason: incomplete

  8. #283
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    Yeah, the hypocrisy of it all. Some working class cop pushes a little hard on a choke hold and he has "no regard for human life". A governor sends covid patients to a nursing home and it is "Opps, we all made a lot of mistakes". And the news media creates mass panic that causes mass deaths and it is "the sacred first Amendment".

    Reminds me of the "somebody" who said Iraq had WMD and was an imminent danger. Somehow "somebody" faded into the background.

    Back on the ground, a doctor who recently treated the little granddaughter just came down with covid. AZ ICUs 84% full.

    "Support mental health or I'll break your head"

    Covid was an intelligence test and we flunked.



  9. #284
    Viejo del Foro Daddy-YO's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    Quote Originally Posted by el duende grande View Post
    Reminds me of the "somebody" who said Iraq had WMD and was an imminent danger. Somehow "somebody" faded into the background.
    Colin Powell did the UN dog & pony show. He was Cheney's and Wolfowitz's patsy. The ruse wasn't for naught: it took a lot of heat off Israel, who then courted the Kurds to effectively divide the Sunni/Shia resistance to their existence. Remember when they were launching scud missiles into Haifa? Remember the super gun the Brit Gerald Bull was designing for Saddam Hussein, until the Israelis eliminated Bull? (It had only one aim = Israel.)
    I see Powell is playing up to the Dems now, to merge with BLM as the top presidential candidate, in some post-apocalyptic planet of the minorities.


    And speaking of covid patients & nursing homes, today's headline:
    Nursing Homes Evict Residents to Make Way for Lucrative Coronavirus Patients
    Nursing homes across the country are kicking out old and disabled residents and sending them to homeless shelters and rundown motels.
    Last edited by Daddy-YO; 06-21-2020 at 11:49 AM. Reason: more pulp

  10. #285

    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    " . . I see Powell is playing up to the Dems now, to merge with BLM as the top presidential candidate, in some post-apocalyptic planet of the minorities. . . . "


    They can't keep Biden in the basement forever. Eventually he will have to think and speak for himself, as opposed to reading someone else's carefully crafted words,, after a refreshing nap. It will be a disaster, as will be a debate with Trump. It is probably one of the reasons the Dems are trying to keep everyone agitated.

    So, the DEMs must have a couple of possibilities in mind. Joe might not make it to November. I'm not sure Powell is high on the list,, but who knows ?



    " . . . Back on the ground, a doctor who recently treated the little granddaughter just came down with covid. AZ ICUs 84% full ...."




    They love playing with those numbers, another means to mislead the sheep. The statement implies that the 84% of ICU beds are taken up by Covid patients, but in fact, those ICU beds are well used normally. The Covid patients are an incremental addition. A hospital couldn't survive financially if they didn't keep those (and the rest of their beds) reasonably full.

    This is the new disinformation, giving you half of the story, showing an edited video, ignoring stories that don't fit the agenda.



    In the meantime, another study correlates worse Covid outcomes with low vitamin D levels and weak immune response. It was in Medscape. An easy fix. My low Vit D level showed up two years ago in a routine blood test. My "doctor" who is a PA, -- I haven't seen my doctor in at least as many years ---, told me that it was common. Something about older people losing the ability to process/generate vitamin D. I get lots of sun, and I drink lots of milk fortified with A & D, so I found it difficult to believe.

    An easy fix.


    And a low B12 level is increasingly associated with reduced cognition in oldsters.
    Last edited by KeyWestPirate; 06-21-2020 at 02:33 PM.

  11. #286

    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    To elaborate on previous posts, this is what I see happening in the US (the attached graphs).



    So while active and new cases are trending slightly upward (but not a "surge" or "spike", language favored by CNN)

    Deaths are consistently trending downward (what CNN would call a precipitous fall, if they would even report it).
    An explanation ?
    Anything is possible.
    Some significant herd culling, the virus already taken out the most vulnerable.
    Better outcomes, fewer deaths because of better treatment, increased familiarity with the virus.
    The more vulnerable part of the population becoming more cautious about their exposure.

    So, the charts show that the virus is NOT going away, but that it is killing significantly fewer people going forward. This is not something you will hear on CNN.

    The raw numbers bear this out:
    NY reported 39 deaths yesterday; Arizona 1; Florida 17; CA 2; OK,, 1, and Canada 20
    Attached Images Attached Images

  12. #287
    TRN Science officer bill_bly_ca's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    Quote Originally Posted by KeyWestPirate View Post

    So, the charts show that the virus is NOT going away, but that it is killing significantly fewer people going forward. This is not something you will hear on CNN.
    This is no surprise - When we got hit Square in the face with SARs our death rat was horrid, but we were one of the first hit and little experience. We took our experiences and passed them forward to other countries so they did not make the same mistakes.

    Fast forward to today we still smarted from that hammer blow and picked up on the Italian, German and smaller Asian countries recomendations.

    The US and UK, not so much. The numbers show the difference.
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  13. #288
    Viejo del Foro el duende grande's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    My doctor did a d3 test on me about 3 or 4 years ago, came back low. He said he thought something was wrong with the test because just about every patient came back low, in a subtropical climate with plenty of sunshine. He also said I was his youngest and healthiest patient which is pretty scary. He prescribed vitamins which did the job. In January I tested normal so he wrote the last prescription, but I still take d3/k2 2x per week and get a little noon day sun. And I have a lot more fats in my diet than a couple years ago. It is a fat soluble vitamin/hormone. Using coco oil instead of sugar/sweetener in coffee takes some getting used too, but eventually it becomes the new normal.


    All indications are the covid is going to be around for a while-- the kicker is the learning curve for people to take reasonable precautions.
    Have been watching the situation in Spain. Lotta stuff like drones with software that estimate the number of people on a beach so the police can close the parking lots when the magic number is reached. They are opening limited tourism from limited places.

    I was trying to figure out when Semana Santa was but I have been on lockdown too much. It doesn't compute!
    Actually, we went to Tisey yesterday and had a great day. I finished extending the roof on the dog house. Dog is happy.

    "Support mental health or I'll break your head"

    Covid was an intelligence test and we flunked.



  14. #289

    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    This is new, at least to me:

    https://www.sciencedirect.com/scienc...66354220302011

    We use it on the farm for the pigs,, it's an antiparasito.


    It came to my attention in a news clip that reported the president of Honduras and his wife had contacted Covid. This was part of his regimen.

    https://www.foxnews.com/world/hondur...or-coronavirus

  15. #290
    Viejo del Foro Daddy-YO's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    Quote Originally Posted by KeyWestPirate View Post
    ... a news clip that reported the president of Honduras and his wife had contacted Covid. Ivermectin was part of his regimen.
    https://www.foxnews.com/world/hondur...or-coronavirus
    We use it on the farm for the pigs, it's an antiparasito.
    A curious witch-doctor's brew. HO pres gets the “MAIZ treatment,” an experimental combination of microdacyn, azithromycin, ivermectin and zinc. Experimenting on the pres?
    The Azithro + Zn should have them covered against covid.
    Why an antiparasite? OK, it's HO.
    But what's
    microdacyn? Google says (without searching):
    Microdacyn is a biologically active treatment for debridement, moistening and decreasing the microbial load of acute and chronic wounds that are difficult to heal, infected or otherwise.
    From rough sex con putas?

  16. #291
    Dog Whisperer cookshow's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    Looks like flights getting pushed to August. hard to tell what is going here, not bodies in street, at least not seen any, but no way to tell. Good friend on Island dead, older but good health. Know another guy that they expect to die.
    ‎"You know what you say when people tell you you can't do something? Fool, shut your mouth up!"
    Ernie K Doe

  17. #292

    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    Covid is cooking in Condega,, market town for La Lima .
    Nine deaths, all older, 67 - 84, all males.


    La Lima is avoiding Krisnia, word spreads fast in the campo. "..anda con el virus ... "
    But, end of week,, she won't be infectious.
    She had a very light case. Some light fever, muscle ache, headache.


    Javier and Johana brought up their new baby for viewing,, life indeed does go on.
    I don't have a name,, but she referred to him as "mi tierno" so must be a macho.


    I'm thinking of buying another nebulizer and some of that Nicaraguan Albuterol for the farm.
    Azith and zinc. I just don't know what to think about hydroxychloroquine,, the Ticos were using it as part of their protocol and they had minimal deaths.

    It can't hurt. I'll have to "borrow" some from Arielka. She stocked up, and bought 200 Azith tabs,more than two months ago. Hydroxy is impossible to find now; Azith is still available but spendy.

    We keep a decent stock of standard antibiotics on the farm, but I'm sure the azith is gone by now.

    This ivermectin thing ? I wonder if I can just give myself a shot when I leave ? I usually buy some anti parasito treatment on my way north in Mexico, dose myself on the trip.

    Parasitos are like Covid,, impossible to avoid in the campo.

    The virus has put the skids on the family Rafla's plans to build a summer home on the farm. I had long planned to subdivide some area in the pines for houses, but had wanted to wait until I was there permanently. It gets really hot in the period from March to June in the north, depending on rains of course. We have no mosquitos, nights are always cool. A few Gringos who are not enamored with life on the beach or the heat of Granada might enjoy a rural retirement, with room to stretch out and hike. I want to carefully choose who I sell to,, why I didn't want to start the process until I get there.

    Bismark and Belkis own the Rafla fereteria in Condega. I source much of my building material there. Bismark's brother owns a cigar box factory. They are building their "cabin" out of hardwood. One picture shows the hardwood shavings I use extensively to cover the chicken areas. If done properly, it eliminates flies and odor almost 100%.
    Attached Images Attached Images

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    Dog Whisperer cookshow's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    See how many she kills.........
    ‎"You know what you say when people tell you you can't do something? Fool, shut your mouth up!"
    Ernie K Doe

  19. #294

    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    One death in La Lima (as far as I know),, I didn't know him, but Ariana did.
    Male, older,, his nickname was MataTigre

    Looks like the tiger finally got HIM.

    So, if it's epidemic in Condega, and other market towns like Jinotega,, it will start arriving in the campo by way of the buses, or in the truly distant areas, by mule and horse.

    All of these market towns are hubs for large swaths of the campo. The buses down are packed with humanity, a lot of it on top of itself. Saturdays are really ugly. And sacks of crops on the roof, in season.

    On the way back up,, ditto, with the roof loaded with purchases. And people who can't take the inside, on the roof, and hanging off the back. Shit roads, the bus swaying back and forth, back and forth.


    " . . .See how many she kills........."

    Maybe, but she was the one who came up with the idea to treat Mancho with the nebulizer and albuterol when he started having breathing difficulties. She won't be infectious by end of week, so she won't be able to kill anyone else.


  20. #295
    TRN Science officer bill_bly_ca's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    A bit of an update on two I think I may have mentioned previously in this thread..


    Person #1 - Nurse in the KW region - First tested C-19 positive, but Asymptomatic, the first week of March. It was reported on the local news that Lady finally had 2 negative tests last week at 74 days on testing positive.


    Person #2 - The WW2 pilot at the long term care home that was the worst hit in the country (over 30% death rate in 50 days ) - He finally tested negative at over 80 days testing positive.



    I have not seen any reports on what the asymptomatic cases have for contagiousness yet. Any one?
    Last edited by bill_bly_ca; 06-25-2020 at 05:00 PM.
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  21. #296
    Viejo del Foro Daddy-YO's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    "How Arizona ‘lost control of the epidemic’" reads front page headline in today's WaPost.
    At critical junctures, state leaders undermined faith in data and misled the public about the severity of the crisis, according to officials monitoring Arizona’s response.
    I dismissed it as political subterfuge by the newspaper owned by the Dem's richest elite attacking a Rep state by using misleading covid case numbers. So I checked the daily average death rates in AZ. Deaths from covid-19 in AZ bottomed out the week ending June 1. Since then there's been an alarming increase. It isn't just a matter of spread among the asymptomatic young, but the vulnerable, those with pre-disposing health conditions are not avoiding exposure.

  22. #297

    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    Arizona had 45 yesterday,, much the same as NY's and NJ's numbers.

    We were much later starting, and Arizona is currently doing a lot of testing, pushing reported cases up.

    Oklahoma had 2 deaths, we're hearing endless news reports about White House Staff quarantines, but nothing about deaths. Isn't quarantine what you are supposed to do when you are exposed ?

    We're a LONG way from NY's deaths per million of 1615. We're pikers at 211. Texas only reported one death yesterday, I don't understand this blue state hammering of Texas.

    But Covid is increasingly a political football, and as BarelyThereBiden says,, "with 120 millions dead from Covid, this is becoming a very serious problem".

    It's curious, during the Spanish Influenza, there was a lot of censorship of the virus' presence and movement because of the war. The idea advanced was, downplay it so as not to affect morale.

    In Fact, that is how it became to be called the Spanish Influenza: The pandemic was first reported in Spanish newspapers which were not subject to censorship.

    A report in La Prensa today claimed that the Nicaraguan peak will be mid to end of July. Another article in Havana times claimed that hotel occupancy stands at 3%. There is a government sponsored beach party in SJdS today,, this leads one to believe that it might be business as usual for the July 19th celebration.

    Anyone who's been there for one knows that the government buses in supporters from every corner of the country, free bus and free lunch. People are packed into the plaza like sardines in a tin. It IS predominantly young people,, passing bottles of guaro and sharing food.

    Herd immunity, and the planes start flying. And no Black Lives Matter, looting and burning buildings down. My admiration for Ortega increases with every passing day.

    What a great country.

  23. #298

    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    Quote Originally Posted by KeyWestPirate View Post
    My admiration for Ortega increases with every passing day.
    I'm not sure that I'll ever be able to say that, but credit where credit is due. I can acknowledge a good move even if that move is made by an authoritarian.
    Soy el chele mono.

  24. #299
    Viejo del Foro Daddy-YO's Avatar
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    Quote Originally Posted by KeyWestPirate View Post
    Arizona had 45 yesterday,, much the same as NY's and NJ's numbers.
    What hospitals & coroners report each day varies a lot during the week. Daily averages over each week best tell the story. In this case the results match up. The average number of deaths/d for the week ending yesterday,
    AZ = 31/d ___________ NY = 40/d _________ NJ = 37/d ______
    But compare these to the averages for the week ending June 1,
    AZ = 16/d ___________ NY = 97/d _________ NJ = 94/d ______
    For many reasons, AZ is experiencing a second wave. The death rates in NY & NJ continue to drop steadily.

    Covid is increasingly a political football,
    For red/blue US politics, what isn't? A race riot?

    Authoritarian politics is power that rules over people. People are told what to do and they obey or suffer the consequences. The overwhelming response by the developed world to covid-19 was lockdown, enforced isolation and the continual propaganda of fear. The authorities now are "scientists". They know more than all the rest about the danger we face - how do we know? They tell us so. - and for that reason they merit authority. But, in fact, they don't fully understand the virus nor how our immune systems function, and so, beyond "be afraid" and don't socialize, are unable to direct society meaningfully. Yet they preach, "We'll have a cure tomorrow. Have faith."

    And then there is the third world, the 'underdeveloped' nations, who have yet to achieve the total dominance over nature and the future enjoyed by the advanced nations. These losers of the human rat race have learned to roll with nature's punches. Life is as dear to them, but death isn't the same end in a family as it is for the over-achieving corporate individual. They weather the condemnation of their betters, the developed powers, accept what they must, do what they can afford and move on.

    After the coronavirus has run its course thru humanity, we'll tally the totals, correct the over-reporting and under-reporting, and logically conclude that each of us lives in the best of all possible worlds, but some control when the carousel goes and when the music plays.

  25. #300

    Default Re: Thoughts on the current Pandemic

    Quote Originally Posted by Daddy-YO View Post
    Authoritarian politics is power that rules over people. People are told what to do and they obey or suffer the consequences. The overwhelming response by the developed world to covid-19 was lockdown, enforced isolation and the continual propaganda of fear. The authorities now are "scientists". They know more than all the rest about the danger we face - how do we know? They tell us so. - and for that reason they merit authority. But, in fact, they don't fully understand the virus nor how our immune systems function, and so, beyond "be afraid" and don't socialize, are unable to direct society meaningfully. Yet they preach, "We'll have a cure tomorrow. Have faith."
    I agree. I count many politicians, scientists, tech giants, and media outlets among the authoritarians in the United States and all over "developed" nations. I didn't mean to imply that DO is unique in being an authoritarian. I find all authoritarians to be equally unpalatable--no matter where they are from.
    Soy el chele mono.

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